MOTIVATION- How You Overestimate and Underestimate What You Can Achieve. What can and can't you do in one year and ten years? Reviewed by Hara Estroff Marano

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KEY POINTS-

  • Many unanticipated things can throw short-term plans into disarray—not a signal to give up on them
  • Over time, life's unpredictability, non-linearity, and twists can work in your favor, if you persist.
  • Stick to your bigger-picture values, interests, and goals, and be open to serendipity.
Source: Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images
You may have seen a quote floating around the Internet that says something like “People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.” This is based on the fact that life in the short-term can be unpredictable. But in the longer-term sticking to your principles, values, interests, and goals can bring the unexpected in a good way.
Source: Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images

You may have seen a statement floating around the Internet that says something like “People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.” There are forms of the pronouncement that vary the time frames, but the origin of the idea is unclear. Some attribute it to Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates. Others have credited other people, including, surprise, surprise, themselves.

 

Regardless, this statement is a good measuring stick to use if you want to achieve anything, professionally or personally. That's because what you can achieve after making plans is all about how you adapt to the unpredictability of life and whether you stick with your bigger-picture principles, values, interests, and goals.

 
PM Images/Getty Images
Life can be a real roller coaster ride.
Source: PM Images/Getty Images

To understand the first part of the quote, recall another that begins with “The best-laid schemes of mice and men....” It cautions that no matter how carefully you or anyone else with whiskers plan, no matter how many lists, calendar entries, Gantt charts, PowerPoint presentations, or business plans that you make, no matter how many life coaches, fortune tellers, and futurists you consult, and no matter how many times you declare, "This is exactly what's going to happen" and "I refuse to make a Plan B," unanticipated events inevitably arise. You may run into people who end up being roadblocks or, conversely, unexpected facilitators. You may experience some health or financial issues. You may run into information that you didn't have before. And such events can throw your original plans into disarray...in the short term, that is.

 

Plus, there's that whole skewed-perception-of-time problem that humans and potentially mice have. If humans were able to keep track of time perfectly, we wouldn't have clocks, watches, hourglasses, significant others, or whatever devices you need to keep you from being late. You may struggle to estimate how long a given task will take and how much time you will have to do it. For example, it may take much longer to dislodge that cheese from that trap than you first estimated. "Misunderestimating" time for each of a series of events can, in turn, add up, meaning that instead of accomplishing the 100 things on your list over the course of a day, a week, a month, or even a year, you may barely get through three.

 

And that can lead to all sorts of stress and anxiety, the "You said you would do this and now look what happened" pressure that you may get from others or yourself (or mice, for that matter). This can lead you to prematurely abandon your longer-term plans.

Which brings up the second part of the quote: that you tend to underestimate what you can accomplish over a longer period of time. That's because, over time, assuming that you stick with your longer-term goals and principles, life's unpredictability, non-linearity, and how-the-heck-did-that-happen twists begin to work in your favor.

 

For example, if you do something long enough and well enough, you can become an expert in it. And that means earning the "expert" title from qualified others, rather than simply declaring yourself an expert on social media. Once you are an expert, you will see details, angles, and opportunities that others may not see. Being an expert is sort of like how Neo felt near the end of The Matrix movie, where he finally saw the Matrix and Agent Smith for what they really were and then proceeded to kick butt.

 

Similarly, if you hang around good-quality people long enough and really get to know and appreciate each other, they may bring you unexpected opportunities.

twomeows/Getty Images
If you stick to your values, interests, and goals, you never know where, when, and how serendipity may help.
Source: twomeows/Getty Images

Finally, there are the unseen, the processes that are happening beyond your field of view. There are many sayings that capture the essence of gaining momentum, such as "if you plant enough seeds, eventually one will grow" and "if you keep chipping away, eventually the dam will break," or the lyrics to Justin Bieber's “Never Say Never.”

So rather than being wed to your short-term plans, understand that you may not really achieve them in the originally allotted time frame or in the way that you mapped out previously. Instead, be flexible. Don't despair if things don't turn out exactly how you'd planned.

At the same time, stick to your bigger-picture principles, values, interests, and goals while being open to serendipity. The long and short of it is that you never know how and when life will end up bringing you what want—and more.

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