Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, on May 23, 2017.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose leadership credentials, judgment and popularity have taken a big hit since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel and the subsequent wars in Gaza and Lebanon, can now breathe a little easier. This week has been a godsend for the Israeli premier. On Nov. 5, Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, after nearly two years of internal bickering between the two men (who also happen to be members of the same political party). And on the same day, the United States again elected Donald Trump as president.

If Netanyahu were able to vote, he would have gladly cast it for Trump, not necessarily because he likes the man but because he believes a Trump administration would be far more deferential toward Israel than Kamala Harris would have been.

Netanyahu wasted no time congratulating the former president (and now president-elect) for what he labeled “history’s greatest comeback,” by tweeting a picture of himself, his wife and Trump for good measure.

Gallant’s dismissal was only a matter of time. Within the government, the former Israeli general proved to be the biggest thorn in Netanyahu’s side. He repeatedly questioned Netanyahu’s war strategy against Hamas, emphasized the necessity of broadening the Israeli army’s draft pool to the ultra-Orthodox community and repeatedly told anyone who’d listen that Israel needed to plan for post-war scenarios in Gaza.

Gallant was Israel’s defense minister, but he was also Washington’s man in Jerusalem, someone who could be trusted to bring messages and critiques back to Netanyahu. It just so happened that Gallant mostly agreed with those critiques, the most significant one involving Netanyahu’s habitual refusal to seriously discuss post-war governing arrangements in Gaza.

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After a while, Netanyahu couldn’t stand it anymore. With Gallant removed, the U.S. no longer has a chief emissary. And Netanyahu, prone to ignoring or downplaying Washington’s advice, no longer has to worry about whether one of his highest-profile Cabinet members will throw sand in the gears.

Tuesday was technically the second time Gallant has been shown the door. Netanyahu issued Gallant his walking papers in March 2023 after the defense minister expressed concerns about the prime minister’s bid to weaken the powers of the Supreme Court, a move that instigated massive protests across Israel and forced Netanyahu to reinstate him. Ultimately Netanyahu and Gallant were rivals more than partners — Netanyahu viewed Gallant as an irritant who wasn’t a team player, and Gallant saw in Netanyahu a politician who didn’t have Israel’s best interests at heart.

How will Gallant’s dismissal and Trump’s victory affect the wars in Gaza and Lebanon as well as U.S.-Israel relations generally?

There is an assumption that Trump will be more patient with Netanyahu than Harris would have been. Others go further, arguing that Netanyahu will now have the freedom and flexibility to do whatever he wants in Gaza or Lebanon, assuming it doesn’t draw U.S. forces into either one of those conflicts. Even before she was picked to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, Harris called for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. She repeatedly brought up the plight Palestinian civilians face in the coastal territory — more than 43,000 people have died in Gaza since the war started 13 months ago — and went so far as to strongly highlight the humanitarian catastrophe there after she met Netanyahu in July. Trump hasn’t said much on Gaza outside of cryptic statements about Israel needing to finish the war quickly because it’s losing the public relations battle.

Trump’s first term was a remarkably positive one for Israel and Netanyahu specifically. In December 2017, Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the U.S. Embassy there, a long-standing Israeli request. In 2018, the Trump administration cut funding to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the body responsible for caring for Palestinian refugees in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as another $200 million in U.S. aid to the Palestinians. Trump shuttered the Palestinians’ representative office in Washington the same year, formally recognized Israel’s sovereignty of the Golan Heights in 2019 and introduced a Mideast peace plan in 2020 that was so front-loaded with concessions for Israel that it died on the table. Taken together, this all looks quite sunny from Netanyahu’s perspective.

Past success, however, is not indicative of future results. Just because Trump gave Netanyahu a long leash during his first term doesn’t necessarily mean he will act the same way in a second. Trump is a notoriously unpredictable man who, despite expressing his full support to Israel in every capacity, is also interested in making diplomatic history. He doesn’t like to get upstaged or embarrassed in public, something Netanyahu has done repeatedly with President Joe Biden over the last year.

In September, to note one example, Netanyahu agreed in principle to a 21-day cease-fire plan in Lebanon, only to use his speech during the annual U.N. General Assembly to restate his desire for a full military victory. Israel would assassinate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shortly thereafter, burying Biden’s skeleton cease-fire proposal six-feet under. Trump, who isn’t afraid to call U.S. partners and allies out, would likely loudly object if Netanyahu did the same to him.

In 2021, after he’d left the White House, Trump said his dream to become the first U.S. president to strike a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace accord was essentially killed by Netanyahu. “My whole life is deals. I’m like one big deal. That’s all I do, so I understand it,” Trump told Israeli journalist Barak Ravid at the time. “I don’t think Bibi ever wanted to make a deal.” If Trump dips his toe into the Mideast peace pool again, it likely won’t take long before personal friction between him and Netanyahu bubbles to the surface.

One more thing to consider: Trump, for all his bombast about knocking heads and defeating adversaries, is more cautious about using military force than his rhetoric suggests. He talks tough, but he isn’t eager to get into a fight that could be deadly for U.S. troops. Nor does he want to preside over another unwinnable war on his watch, which would damage his reputation as a leader and contradict the phrase he used on the campaign trail: “I will end all wars.” If Israel is too aggressive and draws the U.S. into the fray — there are approximately 43,000 U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East today — the Trump-Netanyahu relationship could go downhill fast.

Ultimately, nobody can predict what Trump’s foreign policy is going to look like because he views unpredictability as a positive character trait. If Netanyahu thinks Trump will suddenly become predictable, then he would be making a big mistake.

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