A Russian Su-57 stealth fighter landed in Taiyuan, North China’s Shanxi Province, on November 3, 2024, on its first-ever visit to China. 

It’s not yet known if the Su-57 will perform demonstration flights at the Zhuhai Airshow 2024, which will take place from November 12 to 17, 2024.

The Su-57 was first showcased internationally at the Dubai Airshow in November 2017. While it was on static display at the event, it did not conduct demonstration flights.

At the time, the aircraft, which first flew in 2010, was still in the prototype and testing phase.

To date, the fighter has not undertaken flight demonstrations at international air shows outside of Russia, though it has demonstrated its flight capabilities at MAKS Air Shows near Moscow in 2019 and 2021.

The Su-57 photographed landing at Taiyuan has the Bort number 54, suggesting it’s a prototype that was likely manufactured well before 2019. (Bort 51 was one of the fighters that participated in MAKS 2019 and Bort 57 was on static display at the airshow.)

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The fighter in China is clearly powered by AL-41F1 engines, which is compatible with its prototype status.

New variants of the Su-57 are expected to be powered by the fighter’s state 2 powerplant, the Izdeliye 30 engine. Despite Russian media reports that serial production of Su-57s powered by the Izdeliye 30 engine would start in 2024, there is no evidence that the engine has been fully integrated into operational Su-57s.

Clearly, the Su-57’s possible participation in the Zhuhai airshow is not aimed at winning over defense partners poised on the threshold of purchase, such as India, which continues to retain its option of acquiring the Su-57 once the aircraft is capable of supercruise, which it will be capable of once the Izdeliye 30 engine is integrated.

There are several other good reasons why Russia would want to display the Su-57 at an international airshow despite the absence of an impressive technological breakthrough.

It’s likely that the Su-57’s participation in the Zhuhai airshow is aimed at underscoring the deepening defense ties between Russia and China and driving home to Russian adversaries the strategic implications of defense cooperation and technology sharing between Russia and China.

With or without the new Izdeliye 30 engine, the Su-57 can give a very impressive air display, better than any other fighter in the world. The flight demonstrations at Zhuhai will have a lasting impact both on spectators and potential buyers from Asia, Africa, South America, and the Middle East.

Russia is clearly trying to win over the global south into a multi-polar global framework. Showcasing impressive military technology while displaying bonhomie with another global power would send the right message.

Su-57s have participated in Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine since late 2022 without losses. They have built up an impressive operational track record through pinpoint strikes deep into Ukrainian territory.

There have been several instances of Kh-59Mk2 missile strikes on Ukrainian targets attributed to Su-57. According to Russian social media, the TV tower in Kharkiv and a military facility in the Nikolaev region were destroyed by Su-57 aircraft using the Kh59Mk2.

Besides penetrating Ukrainian airspace in full stealth mode to deliver missile strikes, Russian aerospace forces also use the Su-57 for networking support.

In July, the UAC told TASS that the Su-57, along with the Su-34 and Su-35, is part of the SMO’s central combat link. The joint use of these three types of aircraft facilitates a comprehensive response to emerging threats. Such a role would not require the Su-57 to enter contested airspace.

Before participating in the SMO, the Su-57 fighter was extensively field-tested in Syria, operating in a combat zone patrolled by US stealth fighters.

Indeed, the Su-57, whatever its shortcomings in comparison to other stealth fighters, is the only stealth fighter that has been thoroughly combat tested in a near peer-to-peer environment.

At Zhuhai, spectators watching the Su-57 perform its aerial ballot are likely to be tempted by its performance, as well as its affordability and ease of availability.

Finally, the fact that Russia has not been able to showcase the fighter since 2021 due to the SMO must have weighed on Rosoboronexport officials’ minds. Marketing is essential for export success.

China has its own stealth fighter, the J-20, and is developing others like the J-35. These would be on display at Zhuhai.

By showcasing the Su-57’s stealth characteristics, advanced avionics, and supermaneuverability, Russia would be positioning itself as a competitor in the global arms market, especially in advanced fighter technology.

Production Shortfalls

Here is the downer to Russia’s fielding of the Su-57 at Zhuhai: Russia’s desire to export the Su-57 may not match its ability to produce the fighter!

In 2023, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) announced a ramp-up in its Su-57 production capability and a spruce-up of its assembly line for the aircraft. It said it had eliminated bottlenecks, not just in the final assembly shop but throughout the entire production cycle.

Based on the ramp-up, Su-57 production in 2024 was projected at 24 fighters. However, UAC announced only one batch delivery of Su-57 fighters to Russian forces in 2024.

In a Telegram post on September 12, the UAC announced that it had handed over a batch of new Su-57 and Su-35S aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).

The UAC post didn’t specify the number of Su-57 fighters delivered. However, an accompanying video showed two Su-57 fighters operating on the tarmac and three Su-57s taking off. A picture posted on the FighterBomber TC on September 6 showed three Su-57 aircraft in close formation. These were likely the three new production aircraft delivered by UAC.

Unless there have been other unannounced deliveries in 2024, clearly, there is a production bottleneck.

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