Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Thursday that Iran’s nuclear program could be Jerusalem’s next line of attack as Tehran promises to return fire following last week's air strikes.

"The supreme objective that I have set for the IDF and the security services is to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said while speaking at a course graduation ceremony for soldiers in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). "Halting the nuclear program has been – and remains – our chief concern.

"I have not taken, we have not taken, and we will not take, our eyes off this objective," he added.

The prime minister’s comments were in response to an apparent threat issued by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who on Sunday said in a post on X, "Zionists are making a miscalculation with respect to Iran. They don't know Iran."

"They still haven't been able to correctly understand the power, initiative, and determination of the Iranian people. We need to make them understand these things," Khamenei added.

Netanyahu’s suggestion that Israel could next target Iranian nuclear facilities is in line with other comments made by the IDF that vowed to escalate its attack "capabilities" and target hit list should Iran follow through with another attack on the Jewish state.

The U.S. – Israel’s chief ally in its fight against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran – has repeatedly warned Jerusalem against hitting Iran’s energy infrastructure, in particular, its nuclear and oil facilities, out of concern it could prompt an outright regional war.

Reports this week suggested that Iran could be waiting until after the U.S. presidential election next week, though other reports have said Tehran’s retaliatory strike could come at any time.

The repeated tit-for-tat exchanges between IDF and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces could soon be joined by Iranian-backed groups other than Hamas and Hezbollah, particularly after Israel struck Iran-backed militant groups in Iraq and Syria last week.

A report by Axios on Thursday said Israeli intelligence believes the imminent attack on the Jewish state may not come directly from Iran next time, but from an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq.

"The last thing the Islamic Republic wants is a normalization of attacks against its own territory, even though all it seems to be doing is normalizing direct attacks from its own territory against Israel, as well as against a whole host of proxy attacks," expert on Iran-Israel security matters and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Behnam Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital.

Iran, which shares a border with Iraq, is believed to have transferred short-range ballistic missiles into the hands of its proxy forces in the neighboring country in 2018.

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This missile capability, which typically has a firing range of roughly 600 miles, would allow Iranian-backed forces in western Iraq and in neighboring Syria to hit certain areas in northern Israel.

Ben Taleblu explained that while Syria shares a border with Israel and would therefore be more geographically optimal for Iranian proxy forces to hit the Jewish state, Syria is a "free fire zone" given the West’s rocky relationship with the Bashar al-Assad regime and the decadelong fight against ISIS in Syria.

"Iran has already seen much of its infrastructure – when it comes to domestic missile production or radars or IRGC command and control in Syria – go up in flames," Ben Taleblu said.

The expert further explained that potentially drawing the fight with Israel to Iraq not only pushes it off its own territory, but it could also demand an international response given the U.S.’s history with Baghdad.

"There perhaps may be more of a political taboo for the Israelis to strike in Iraq, given more of the American presence there," the expert said. "[There is a] desire to shield themselves as much as possible, while opening as many fronts as much as possible.

"Staying in Iraq offers them a bit more cover," Ben Taleblu added.

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Analysis-Iran braces for Trump victory, fearing more Israeli strikes, Western sanctions

Iran’s leadership and allies are bracing for what they would regard as a dreadful outcome of the imminent U.S. presidential election: A return to power of Donald Trump.

Opinion polls suggest the Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close contest. But Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are concerned that Trump could well triumph on Nov. 5 and this could spell more trouble for them.

Iran's main concern is the potential for Trump to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran's nuclear sites, conduct targeted assassinations and reimpose his "maximum pressure policy" through heightened sanctions on their oil industry, according to Iranian, Arab and Western officials.

They anticipate that Trump, who was president in 2017-21, will exert utmost pressure on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to cave in by accepting a nuclear containment deal on terms set by himself and Israel.

This potential change in U.S. leadership could have far-reaching implications for the Middle East balance of power, and might reshape Iran's foreign policy and economic prospects.

Analysts argue that whether the next U.S. administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran will lack the leverage it once held - largely due to Israel's year-old military campaign aimed at degrading the Islamic Republic's armed proxies, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

However, Trump's stance is perceived as more detrimental to Iran due to his more automatic support for Israel, they added.

"Trump will either put very tough conditions on Iran or let Israel carry out targeted strikes on its nuclear facilities. He is fully endorsing a military action against Iran," Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, said.

"It's Netanyahu's dream day to have Trump back in the White House," he told Reuters.

POISON CHALICE?

A senior Iranian official who declined to be named told Reuters Tehran was "prepared for all scenarios. We have (for decades) consistently found ways to export oil, bypassing harsh U.S. sanctions..., and have strengthened our ties with the rest of the world no matter who was in the White House."

But another Iranian official said a Trump victory would be "a nightmare. He will raise pressure on Iran to please Israel..., make sure oil sanctions are fully enforced. If so, (our) establishment will be economically paralysed.”

In an election speech in October, Trump stated his unwillingness to go to war with Iran, but said Israel should "hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later", in response to Iran's missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1.

Israel retaliated with airstrikes on Iranian military targets, especially missile production sites, on Oct. 26.

Iran's choices are limited going forward, analysts say.

“The reality is: Trump is going to support Netanyahu and give him the green light to do whatever he wants,” said Hassan Hassan, an author and researcher on Islamic groups. “Trump is much worse (than Harris) for Iran."

Hassan noted that Washington has delegated a substantial share of responsibility to Israel in the conflict with Iran and its proxies, with Israel leading the way. “The U.S. is involved enough in that it’s backing Israel, may be more so than before.

“This time it's just things are really bad for Iran. Iran is seen as a problem by both Republicans and Democrats.”

During her campaign, Harris called Iran a "dangerous" and "destabilising" force in the Middle East and said the U.S. was committed to Israel's security. She said the U.S. would work with allies to disrupt Iran's "aggressive behaviour".

But Trump's re-election would be a "poisoned chalice", for Khamenei, according to two regional officials.

If he were to reinstate stringent sanctions, Khamenei may be forced to negotiate and accept a nuclear pact more favourable to U.S. and Israeli term to preserve theocratic rule in Iran, which is facing growing foreign pressure and has been buffeted by bouts of mass protest at home in recent years.

A U.S.-Saudi defence pact tied to Riyadh's establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, now in its final negotiating stages, poses a significant challenge to Khamenei too.

This alliance threatens to shift the regional balance of power by creating a more unified front against Iran, impacting its geopolitical standing and strategy in the Middle East.

NEW ARCHITECTURE

Hassan said recent attacks on Iran and its allies have been widely perceived as a significant success for Israel. They offered insights into what a limited strike on Iran might look like, setting a precedent and altering assumptions that military action on Iran would inevitably spark a wider Middle East war.

A senior Arab security official said that Tehran could "no longer brandish its influence through its armed proxies" in the wake of Israel's deadly strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

For its own part, Iran has every reason to fear another Trump term.

It was Trump who in 2018 unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Khamenei's right-hand man and mastermind of overseas attacks on U.S. and allied interests.

Trump also imposed punitive sanctions targeting Iran’s oil export revenues and international banking transactions, which led to extreme economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in the Islamic Republic.

He frequently said during his presidential campaign that President Joe Biden's policy of not rigorously enforcing oil export sanctions has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, accumulate cash and expand its nuclear pursuits and influence through armed militias.

In March, he told Israel's Hayom newspaper in an interview that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in 35 days and that Israel - which deems Iran's nuclear activity an existential threat though is widely thought to have the region's only nuclear arms - was in a "very treacherous and dangerous neighbourhood".

An Arab government adviser noted that Tehran recognises there is a "new architecture in the making", but also that Trump despite his tough rhetoric realises there is no alternative to a deal with Iran given its accelerated uranium enrichment program.

"Trump might aim for a new nuclear agreement, he could say I tore up the 2015 agreement because it was incomplete and replace it with a long-lasting agreement, touting it to 'make America great again' and preserve U.S. interests," the adviser said.

As the 2015 deal has eroded over the years, Iran has escalated the level of fissile purity in enriched uranium, cutting the time it would need to build an atom bomb if it chose to, though it denies wanting to.

Iran Online, a state-run news website, stated that when Trump left office, Iran was capping enrichment at 3.67 percent under the deal, far below the 90 percent of weapons grade.

Now, Iran has "enriched uranium to 60% with IR-6 advanced centrifuges" and could achieve nuclear weapons capability "within a few weeks ... Completing the nuclear deterrence cycle is Iran's greatest trump card against Trump," it said.

Arab and Western officials warn that the more Iran hints it is nearing development of an atom bomb, the more they incite the need for Israel to strike.

"If Trump reassumes power, he will support Israeli plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities,” a Western official said.

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Iran ‘preparing to attack Israel’ possibly before US election

A billboard in Tehran glorifying Iran’s attack on Israel in October -

Iran is preparing a fresh attack on Israel within days, intelligence officials believe.

Tehran is expected to launch the attack from Iraqi territory using drones and ballistic missiles, possibly before the US election, Israeli officials told Axios.

The attack would be intended as a response to Israeli strikes launched against Iranian military sites over the weekend.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, said Tehran had the right to defend itself, describing Israel’s strikes as “evil committed by the Zionist regime”.

However, the supreme leader said it was up to Iranian officials how to respond to Saturday’s early morning strikes by Israel, rather than issuing a warning of imminent retaliation.

Israel used dozens of aircraft, including F35 stealth jets, refuelling aircraft and drones, to attack Iranian military sites on Saturday after Tehran launched 180 missiles towards Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in early October.

Officials believe that pro-Iranian militias launching the attack from Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran to avoid another Israeli retaliation against strategic targets in Iran.

Among the Iran-backed groups in the region is the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which has been targeting Israel with drones.

US officials are said to believe that Iran could implement its plan quickly but they did not know if a decision had been made to launch such an attack.

CNN also reported that a high-ranking Iranian source has said the country was planning a “definitive and painful” response to Israel’s strikes and that this would be before the end of the US presidential race.

News of plans for a fresh Iranian response came as Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, said the country had attacked Tehran’s “soft underbelly” in its recent strikes.

“The brash words of the leaders of the regime in Iran cannot cover up the fact that Israel has greater freedom of action in Iran today than ever before. We can reach anywhere in Iran as needed,” Mr Netanyahu said.

Israel’s strikes against Iran on Saturday made Tehran more vulnerable, having taken out air defences and “planetary mixers” used to make solid fuel needed for ballistic missiles.

A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday that Tehran would “use all available tools” to respond to the Israeli strikes.

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