Italian Navy, Italian-French European Multi Mission Frigate (FREMM ), Alpino (F594) arrives at Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Yokosuka Naval Base in Yokosuka, Kanagawa-Prefecture-

Japan In the lead-up to his election, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba floated the idea of an "Asian NATO" to deter the increasing aggressiveness of China in the Asia-Pacific region. The prospect of setting up an alliance in the Asia-Pacific region resembling the collective defense promised by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is hindered by the reality that few, if any, countries are willing to commit to the collective defense of an area where a nuclear nation is already actively testing the limits of its power.

The proposal faced skepticism from regional players, particularly ASEAN countries, which fear that such an alliance could increase economic tensions with China and disrupt their stance of non-alignment. Prime Minister Ishiba has since backed away from this proposal and did not mention it during his first overseas visit with ASEAN leaders earlier this month.

"There are two ways to read it," said Robert Ward, Japan Chair and Director of Geo-economics and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in an interview with UPI.

"One is to take it literally. It is a complicated thing to bring about, not least of which because you would need constitutional change [in Japan]....The other thing is to look at it as Ishiba floating ideas...this idea not in itself, but what he's trying to convey with this in terms of where Japan's future security debate should go. What he's really saying is that 'the threat from China is so significant that we really need to link up with like-minded countries.'"

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Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said in a statement earlier this month in response to Ishiba's proposal that Japan "often hypes up the non-existent 'China threat' to divert the international community's attention from its own military expansion."

China's military exercises earlier this month encircled Taiwan, setting a record with the highest number of Chinese military aircraft crossing the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait, while Chinese coast guard vessels intentionally collided with Philippine ships during maritime standoffs earlier this year. Japan and its regional allies are concerned that China's threats to the region are far from "hyped-up" and are part of a greater normalization of incremental encroachments in the region.

"We are facing a post-peak globalization planet that now is operating essentially under new rules of the game," said Mike Studeman, National Security Fellow at MITRE and former Rear Admiral and Commander of the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, at a Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan (FCCJ) press conference on October 25th.

"When one country that size becomes very zero-sum and mercantilist, then it has very strong repercussions for many other countries that are interdependent."

One effect of this, however, has been the recent doubling down on Japanese defense spending proposals that would have, in the recent past, seemed unthinkable. Although there is skepticism about the proposed timeline, Japan's latest National Security Strategy, published in 2022, announced an increase in military spending to 2% of its GDP. While on par with the proposed military spending for NATO members, this potentially puts Japan on track to become the third-largest military in the world. However, constitutional limitations prevent this from being called a "military" and would still restrict its offensive capabilities. The weakening of the yen is another obstacle that could prevent many of Japan's defense ambitions from coming to fruition.

While an "Asian NATO" might be a bridge too far, a plethora of smaller formal and informal defense alliances already exist in Asia and are expanding in addition to the many cooperative trade agreements in the region set up with half an eye on balancing China's influence. The Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), created in July, is an example, which allows Japanese forces to deploy in the Philippines for joint military exercises. Japan has also signed RAA agreements with Australia and the United Kingdom.

The Quad (an informal alliance between the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India) meets frequently to discuss defense and security in the Asia-Pacific region. There has been support for the idea that this alliance should be expanded into a "Quint" or a "Quad Plus" to include South Korea. South Korean President Yoon has signaled in the past that South Korea would accept an invitation if one were made.

"What you've got now is these groupings, many laterals, some of them more formal than others," says Ward.

"The beauty of these is that you can link like-minded countries together on specific issues and deal with specific strategic issues in a kind of spot way, whereas if you try to link everybody up, you'd never get agreement."

An "Asian NATO" may not be possible to create given the geopolitical diversity of the Asia-Pacific. However, the diversity of ideas within Asia on how to manage Chinese aggression have in effect acted as a multiplier, creating a broad spectrum of alliances and approaches that make managing the balancing forces that China is up against much more complex.

"China would love to be able to only deal with these things bilaterally where they maintain all of the advantages," says Studeman. "This is a time when many states need to work together as a coalition."

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Japan's ruling party may struggle in Sunday's vote, but its decades of dominance won't end.

 Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ’s ruling party, dogged by corruption scandals and plunging support, faces its toughest challenge in more than a decade in Sunday’s parliamentary election.

This could set up a very short-lived time in office for Ishiba, who only took power earlier this month. But even if he may have to take responsibility and step down as head of the party and prime minister, it won't cause his Liberal Democratic Party to fall from power. That's because the party, which has had a stranglehold on power since 1955, easily dominates a fractured, weak opposition, which has only ruled twice, and briefly, during that time.

Analysts expect the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to significantly gain ground, but not enough to change the government.

“I plan to vote, but the opposition won’t be my choice,” said Kanako Ojima, 48. “I don’t think I want to let the opposition take the helm again. ... I think after all it is the LDP that has a long-term vision.”

The LDP has built its juggernaut of support through a network of bureaucrats, businesses and regional leaders. While opposition parties have made inroads in cities, the LDP controls the countryside, funneling huge government subsidies to rural areas.

Ishiba ordered Sunday's election on the day he took office, on Oct. 1, aiming to use his image as a reformer to shake off voter anger and shore up power. Analysts say the LDP is likely to lose a few dozen seats and may fail to reach the target Ishiba set for his ruling coalition.

Even in a worst-case scenario, however, the LDP will still be the No. 1 party in the ruling bloc.

Here's a look at how the LDP has dominated postwar Japanese politics and what virtual single-party rule means for Japan.

The 1955 system

The LDP was formed in 1955 by the merger of two major conservative parties: the Liberal Party and the Japan Democratic Party, just as leftwing groups formed the Socialist Party. They led Japan after the war, when conservatives in the U.S.-occupied country were looking to deter the spread of communism.

The party's rule was only interrupted twice, from 1993-1994 and 2009-2012, both times following bribery scandals. Many credit the LDP with leading Japan's astonishing recovery after the war, when the nation became one of the world’s biggest economies through the 1980s.

People became used to the LDP dominating the smaller and the main opposition Socialist Party, whose initial ambition to take power faded and was known as the perennial opposition. The LDP and the Socialists were part of a 1994-1998 trilateral ruling coalition until the LDP returned to a one-party reign. The Socialist Party has since renamed itself as the Social Democratic Party.

Electoral reform

The LDP’s loss to the short-lived eight-party coalition led by the Japan New Party after two high-profile bribery scandals led to political changes that set up a new electoral system that was supposed to promote two-party competition and eliminate pork barreling.

The current electoral system combines single-seat districts with proportional representation. That means Liberal Democratic candidates only face opposition rivals, rather than competing against fellow party candidates. It has allowed the LDP to concentrate its political resources on one candidate per district.

In traditional LDP strongholds, it has also helped powerful families to take control of electoral districts, funding and connections, with power usually passing to men. Women make up only 10% of the lower house. The LDP has set a goal to increase female candidates to 30% over the next decade.

Factions

LDP lawmakers are loosely connected by their support of conservative social values, strong defense policies and a desire to revise the U.S.-drafted war-renouncing constitution. Rather than ideological differences, LDP lawmakers until recently were divided among in-party factions competing for funding and connections that they need to keep winning elections and get favorable party and government posts.

Factional power struggles have led to frequent changes of party leadership and a succession of short-lived prime ministers. Those government changes are meant to regenerate the party, according to Tomoaki Iwai, a Nihon University politics professor.

This is what happened when Ishiba replaced his unpopular predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who resigned in the face of voter anger over a slush fund scandal. Kishida took leadership in the dissolution of most of the LDP factions and revised a political funding law, but voters and critics called the measures too lax.

All but one of six factions no longer have formal structures, but party heavyweights like Kishida and their former faction members were part of a collective effort in backing Ishiba in the party leadership vote.

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Allies and opposition

Support for the LDP is strong among older conservatives, especially in rural areas, but it is weaker in urban areas. That means the LDP relies on an alliance with the Komeito party, which is backed by a Buddhist group called Soka Gakkai that has several million members nationwide. The parties' partnership began in 1999 during a period of LDP struggles.

The LDP also receives support from industry organizations, fisheries, agricultural cooperatives and religious groups.

The main opposition is the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, but the party has struggled to build momentum despite the LDP scandals. Its newly elected leader, centrist former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, is pushing a conservative shift for the party to attract swing voters, saying that “a change of government is the most effective political reform.”

Media analysts expect his CDPJ to significantly gain ground in Sunday's elections, but not enough to change the government. That's because the opposition groups are too fractured. The defunct Democratic Party of Japan, which Noda once led, toppled the LDP in 2009, but lasted only three years, struggling through the 2011 triple disaster of a massive earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown in Fukushima.

The DPJ’s inexperience and shaky handling of the crises disappointed the public and paved the way for the LDP’s big comeback in 2012. Since then the LDP has not faced serious challenges.

LDP dominance is expected to last

Unlike 2009, there is little voter interest in getting rid of the LDP.

Taizo Yoshida, a 45-year-old office worker, said he doesn't want a change of government and hopes to see Ishiba push through reform. “I don’t think the opposition has the ability to run the government,” he said, though he'd like to see a viable opposition in Japan.

“This party has more of a track record of getting things done,” Rintaro Nishimura, a political analyst at the Asia Group, a strategy and business advisory organization, said of the LDP. With younger people increasingly unhappy about the lack of LDP policies addressing their worries, there may be future changes, but not any time soon. “There is still too much of uncertainty over what the opposition can do."

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