Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system built by Iran's government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) called the Ababil, according to the intelligence officials, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.

Citing multiple confidential intelligence sources, the officials said that Russian personnel have visited Iran to learn how to operate the Fath-360 defence system, which launches missiles with a maximum range of 120 km (75 miles) and a warhead of 150 kg. One of the sources said that that "the only next possible" step after training would be actual delivery of the missiles to Russia.

Moscow possesses an array of its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said.

A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said the United States and its NATO allies and G7 partners "are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers."

It "would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," the spokesman said. "The White House has repeatedly warned of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

Russia's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement that the Islamic Republic had forged a long-term strategic partnership with Russia in various areas, including military cooperation.

"Nevertheless, from an ethical standpoint, Iran refrains from transferring any weapons, including missiles, that could potentially be used in the conflict with Ukraine until it is over," the statement said.

The White House declined to confirm that Iran was training Russian military personnel on the Fath-360 or that it was preparing to ship the weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine.

The two intelligence sources gave no exact timeframe for the expected delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia but said it would be soon. They did not provide any intelligence on the status of the Abibal contract.

A third intelligence source from another European agency said it had also received information that Russia had sent soldiers to Iran to train in the use of Iranian ballistic missile systems, without providing further details.

Such training is standard practice for Iranian weapons supplied to Russia, said the third source, who also declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information.

A senior Iranian official, who requested anonymity, said Iran had sold missiles and drones to Russia but has not provided Fath-360 missiles. There was no legal prohibition on Tehran selling such weapons to Russia, the source added.

"Iran and Russia engage in the mutual purchase of parts and military equipment. How each country uses this equipment is entirely their decision," the official said, adding that Iran did not sell weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war.

As part of the military cooperation, Iranian and Russian officials often travelled between the two states, the official added.

"DESTABILIZING ACTIONS"

Until now, Iran's military support for Moscow has been limited mainly to unmanned Shahed attack drones, which carry a fraction of the explosives and are easier to shoot down because they are slower than ballistic missiles.

Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said in July 2023 that a new training system for the Fath 360 had been successfully tested by the country's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force.

Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Air Power at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defence think-tank, said: "Delivery of large numbers of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would enable a further increase in pressure on already badly overstretched Ukrainian missile defence systems."

"As ballistic threats, they could only be intercepted reliably by the upper tier of Ukrainian systems," he said, referring to the most sophisticated air defences Ukraine has such as the U.S.-made Patriot and European SAMP/T systems.

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense did not have any immediate comment.

In March, G7 leaders voiced concern at reports Iran was considering transferring ballistic missiles to Russia and warned in a statement that they would respond in a coordinated manner with significant measures against Iran.

The NSC spokesman, in response to Reuters questions, noted that Iran's newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian "claimed he wanted to moderate Iran's policies and engage with the world. Destabilizing actions like this fly in the face of that rhetoric."

A British government spokesman expressed deep concern at the reports suggesting that Russian military personnel were being trained in Iran. "Iran must not proceed" with the transfer of ballistic missiles, he said.

U.N. Security Council restrictions on Iran's export of some missiles, drones and other technologies expired in October 2023. However, the United States and European Union retained sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile programme amid concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and to Russia.

Reuters reported in February on deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia and on Moscow's interest in Iranian surface-to-surface missiles.

Sources told the news agency at the time that around 400 Fateh-110 longer-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles had been delivered. But the European intelligence sources told Reuters that according to their information, no transfer had happened yet.

Ukrainian authorities have not publicly reported finding any Iranian missile remnants or debris during the war.

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Ukraine is striking targets hundreds of miles inside Russia for 3 key reasons

• Ukraine has been striking targets deep inside Russian territory.

• Many of the attacks have focused on airbases or energy infrastructure.

• Experts told BI that Ukraine was hoping to cause strategic, economic, and psychological damage to Russia.

In late July, Ukraine said it had struck a Russian Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber at Olenya airbase in Murmansk, a record-breaking 1,100 miles inside Russian territory.

While the news grabbed headlines, it was not the first time that Ukraine has reportedly targeted sites deep within Russia.

In June, the GUR defense intelligence agency said Ukrainian forces had hit a prized Russian Su-57 fighter jet stationed at an airfield in the Astrakhan region of southern Russia, around 360 miles from the frontline.

And in May, Ukraine's Security Service said a long-range Ukrainian drone struck a Gazprom oil refinery roughly 930 miles away in the Russian republic of Bashkortostan.

Ukraine does not currently have permission to use long-range guided weapons such as the ATACMS to hit such targets inside Russia.

It has instead made use of cheap, domestically-produced drones for long-range attacks, Mark Cancian, a Senior Adviser on the International Security Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told BI.

"These are packed with explosives and flown deep into Russia," Cancian said.

While striking targets so far from the frontline may be seen as Ukraine spreading itself rather thinly, such attacks have three key benefits, experts told BI.

Physical and economic damage

Strikes on military-related sites, like airbases or defense-industrial facilities, aim to take out or temporarily disable assets that Russia uses to facilitate its war against Ukraine.

And even seemingly small strikes can have a major impact.

In the case of the Olenya airbase strike, which Ukraine later said had damaged two of the Tu-22M3 bombers, Justin Bronk, a Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said that it would have had a "measurable effect."

"Russia's active fleet is not large and even the temporary loss of two airframes for missile launch sorties against Ukraine will have a measurable effect," he said.

Strikes on oil refineries also aim to "hurt Moscow's pocketbook," John Hardie, Deputy Director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told BI.

Although, he added, the extent to which they've done so is "debatable."

Russia's oil revenue in April more than doubled year on year, Bloomberg previously reported, highlighting the Kremlin's apparent success in rediverting operations.

Reuters reported in April that Russia also appeared to be able to quickly repair some of the key refining facilities damaged by Ukrainian strikes, reducing impacted capacity to roughly 10% from nearly 14% at the end of March, per the news agency's calculations.

Putting pressure on Russian air defenses

Ukraine is also hoping to "overwhelm Russian air defenses" with "mass" drone attacks, Hardie said, adding that it can be "difficult for air defense systems to detect and shoot down UAVs that are small in size or flying low to the ground."

"Russia has already adapted its air defense posture following previous drone strikes and reportedly has stood up mobile counter-UAS [unmanned aircraft system] teams. But Russia is a vast country, so defending everywhere is difficult," he said.

Moscow also started "well after Ukraine in developing countermeasures to the long-range UAV threat," Hardie added, and it "hasn't stood up anything like the system of cheap, distributed sensors that Ukraine uses to detect Shahed UAVs."

As a result, these attacks present Russia with a "serious dilemma," Bronk said.

Given the vastness of Russia's territory and the number of potential targets Ukraine could hit, Moscow "is either forced to protect by taking air defence systems away from the frontline areas; or to leave [domestic targets] undefended which results in consistent harassing damage," he said.

Psychological warfare

Deep Ukrainian attacks within Russian territory also present the Kremlin with a serious political problem — ordinary Russians start to realize that "the state cannot fully defend its own airspace," Bronk said.

Cancian agreed, saying the "psychological" impact of these attacks was crucial. One of Ukraine's main goals was "military embarrassment and popular anxiety," he said.

It shows the Russian people that "there is a price for attacking Ukraine," he added.

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Russia launches air attack on Ukraine's Kyiv, mayor says

Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv, with air defence systems engaged on the outskirts of the city in repelling the strikes, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital and military administration officials said early on Sunday.

"Air defence units operating, air raid alert continues," Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Reuters witnesses said they heard at least two explosions in what sounded like air defence units at work.

It was not immediately clear if the attack caused any damage or injuries.

Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's military administration, said on Telegram that the capital remained under the threat of Russia's ballistic missiles.

Kyiv, its surrounding region and all of eastern Ukraine were under air raid alerts, Ukraine's air force said on Telegram.

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