• A new formal review warned that US munitions may last only a few weeks in a war with China.

• Some important weapons, like anti-ship missiles, may only last a few days, the 114-page report warned.

• Published by a congressionally appointed commission, the review warned of deficiencies across the board.

A new high-profile report on US national defense acknowledged that the Pentagon could deplete its munitions within "three to four weeks" in a protracted war with China.

The 114-page report, published on Monday by a bipartisan commission appointed by Congress, warned urgently that the US is unprepared for a sustained conflict with China or Russia, much less both at the same time.

Many of its assessments were based on previously reported material. Still, the review concentrates a slew of recent findings and dozens of officials' testimonies into a formal and dire recommendation for the US to increase defense spending and streamline its forces.

Ammunition stockpiles are particularly lacking, said the eight-person commission, which included a retired Army general, a former Democratic-party congresswoman, and a former US ambassador.

They cited a 2022 report from two Center for National American Security analysts that said the US doesn't have enough arms to "blunt and defeat an initial invasion" from powers like China.

The commissioners added that this shortage has endured even after the US recently intensified arms production to supply Ukraine.

"As a result, unclassified public wargames suggest that, in a conflict with China, the United States would largely exhaust its munitions inventories in as few as three to four weeks," their report said.

Some important munitions, such as anti-ship missiles, could last only a few days, the commission warned.

The commissioners said stockpiles among US allies are also a concern. As an example, they cited a 2022 report from the Royal United Services Institute about the war in Ukraine.

That report said: "At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock."

Defense industry 'grossly inadequate' even in peacetime

The US commission warned that defense production as a whole is in bad shape, saying the wider industry doesn't have the capacity to meet national needs even in peacetime.

"US industrial production is grossly inadequate to provide the equipment, technology, and munitions needed today, let alone given the demands of great power conflict," their report said.

Overall, they warned of a spectrum of deficiencies in the US, including a need for better career incentives to recruit military personnel, a "byzantine" research and development process, and a slow, bureaucratic Defense Department.

"Fundamental shifts in threats and technology require fundamental change in how DoD functions," the report said.

The commission proposed several major changes to the way the US plans defense.

One is an "all elements of national power" strategy incorporating the private and civil sectors. This mirrors, in principle, what China has been doing with its own defense industry — leveraging on civilian companies and state-run conglomerates that can work together with its military and prepare for wartime.

Another is a "Multiple Theater Force Construct," which aims to address large-scale conflicts against multiple world powers simultaneously.

That strategy is a step up from the more traditional "two-war construct" idea of the US being prepared to fight wars against two regional threats, such as Iran or North Korea.

The review further stressed that the US public is "largely unaware" of the threats to their country and its allies, saying that most Americans don't understand how major war stands to affect every aspect of their lives — from water and power supplies to internet services.

"A bipartisan 'call to arms' is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11," it said.

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US may lose future conflict with Russia, China without changes: Commission report

A commission formed by Congress concluded in a report released Monday that the U.S. may lose a future conflict with Russia and China in a global war unless significant changes are made to the national defense strategy.

The Commission on the National Defense Strategy said in the 132-page report that the security environment was at its most dangerous since World War II but that the U.S. was “not prepared” for another global conflict.

The U.S. is being outpaced by China, the Commission noted, estimating that Beijing is spending at least $711 billion annually on defense, rising to meet Washington’s nearly $900 billion annual defense budget.

“The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment,” the report reads. “Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor.”

China has already surpassed the U.S. to host the world’s largest navy and largest army, and is continuing to modernize its armed forces.

The threat from China has become more acute in recent years as Beijing threatens to unify, by force if necessary, with the self-governing island nation of Taiwan — which the U.S. has unofficial relations with but commits to defending. China is also clashing more frequently with the U.S.-allied Philippines in disputed waters of the South China Sea.

The U.S. recognized China as the most significant threat in the 2022 National Defense Strategy, but the commission said it was “not confident that the U.S. military would succeed” against Chinese forces in a regional conflict.

And the Pentagon has failed to adapt to the growing alliance between its adversaries, including Russia, North Korea and Iran, which could threaten Washington across multiple theaters of war, the commission argued.

“A bipartisan call to arms is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11,” it wrote. “The support and resolve of the American public are indispensable.”

The group also pushed for the U.S. to modernize, criticizing “byzantine research and development” under the Pentagon and the use of old military hardware.

“The Commission finds that the U.S. military lacks both the capabilities and the capacity required to be confident it can deter and prevail in combat,” researchers wrote. “It needs to do a better job of incorporating new technology at scale; field more and higher-capability platforms, software, and munitions; and deploy innovative operational concepts to employ them together better.”

They also faulted the defense industrial base, calling for a revamped industry with a diverse range of companies working together across allied countries. It recognized progress in the form of new initiatives such as Replicator, which aims to create thousands of autonomous drones, but in the event of a protracted conflict, the commission said the U.S. industry would be “unable to meet the equipment, technology, and munitions needs” of the armed forces.

That issue has been well-documented, with the U.S. industrial base struggling to supply Ukraine with the artillery shells it needs in the war against Russia, which has a far larger artillery arsenal.

The defense industry has also become more consolidated under a small group of large defense contractors, which have been accused of overcharging the Pentagon and providing underdeveloped technology or weapons.

Political polarization in the U.S. is also endangering national security, the commission found, while the American public has yet to fully realize the threat from Beijing and other adversaries.

To meet the rising threats, the group recommended the U.S. increase defense spending, continue strengthening alliances, address its recruitment challenges and for the Pentagon to be more willing to cancel unnecessary programs and invest wisely — specifically calling for investments in cyber, space, and software. Researchers also called for a whole-of-country approach, with government, private industry and nonprofits working to support national security needs.

The Commission on the National Defense Strategy was created by Congress after the Biden administration’s 2022 defense strategy and began its work in April 2023, including meetings with officials across government and private industry.

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