Developments in Gaza ceasefire talks raise hopes but challenges persist. Here’s what to know
Israeli and US officials showed optimism last week around a ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, as the Palestinian militant group expressed willingness to compromise on a key sticking point. But an agreement may still be elusive despite the new momentum.
Optimism that a deal may finally be reached came as a senior Hamas official confirmed to CNN Saturday that the group is ready to reconsider its demand that Israel must commit to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza before signing an agreement that would usher in a temporary truce and begin a process to release hostages still held in Gaza.
Last week, a US official told CNN that a framework agreement is “in place” and talks resumed Friday in Doha. And, according to Egypt’s state-affiliated Al-Qahera News channel, they will continue in Cairo this week.
A statement by the Israeli prime minister’s office on Sunday, however, cast doubt on whether the deal would progress, laying out several “principles” Israel is not prepared to abandon, including resumed fighting in Gaza “until all of objectives of the war have been achieved.”
Israel launched its war on Gaza nine months ago, in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack that killed 1,200 people and took more than 250 others hostage, according to Israeli authorities. The war has left swathes of the enclave unrecognizable, displaced almost the entire population and killed more than 38,000 people in Gaza, according to the health ministry there. Israel had said it wouldn’t end the war until all hostages are freed and Hamas is eliminated.
Some experts say Netanyahu’s statement on Sunday suggests the deal may face new hurdles.
The prime minister’s conditions block “any possibility of progress from the Israeli side,” Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli hostage negotiator who once acted as a channel to Hamas, told CNN, adding that the conditions were “completely against what Hamas’ demands are.”
“I don’t think that Hamas will give in to additional Israeli demands,” such as staying on the Philadelphi Corridor, Baskin said, referring to the 14-kilometer (about 8.7-mile) buffer zone on the Egypt-Gaza border. Hamas is also unlikely to agree to an Israeli demand of “a veto on the selection of Palestinian prisoners to be released.”
Here’s what we know about where the talks stand.
What is the deal that is on the table?
US President Joe Biden in May laid out a three-phase proposal that he said Israel had submitted, as he declared “it’s time for this war to end.”
The first phase of the potential agreement would last six weeks and include the “withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza” as well as the “release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.” Phase 2 would allow for the “exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers.” In Phase 3, the president said, a “major reconstruction plan for Gaza would commence and any final remains of hostages who’ve been killed will be returned to their families.”
On Thursday, a senior US administration told CNN that the framework for a deal is “now in place,” following a call between Biden and Netanyahu. An Israeli source familiar with the negotiations echoed a similar message earlier on Wednesday, telling CNN the two sides appear to be on the brink of a framework agreement.
What is Hamas’ position?
Hamas has long demanded that Israel agree to a permanent ceasefire before signing any deal, which Israel has so far refused.
The senior Hamas official – who had been involved in negotiations – told CNN Saturday the group would instead accept that talks on reaching a permanent ceasefire would take place throughout the first phase of any deal, which would last six weeks.
This means, in the first phase, mediators would guarantee a temporary truce, the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli troops. Indirect talks would continue towards implementing the second phase of the agreement.
The demand for a prior commitment to a permanent ceasefire had been a key sticking point for Israel, as Netanyahu insisted his country would not end the war until Hamas is defeated – a goal critics deem too ambitious to achieve.
What is Netanyahu’s position?
Netanyahu on Thursday authorized his negotiators to enter into detailed talks in a bid to broker a deal, an Israeli official and a source familiar with the negotiations said, signaling progress after weeks of deadlock.
In a statement Sunday, however, Netanyahu’s office published a list of principles that it said will not be infringed upon by the plan agreed to by Israel and Biden. The prime minister’s “steadfast position” against calls to halt Israeli military action in the southern Gaza city of Rafah is what brought Hamas to the negotiating table, the statement said.
The principles include a resumption of the war until “all of objectives of the war have been achieved” and the prevention of “smuggling of weapons to Hamas from Egypt to the Gaza border.”
Israel began a ground operation in Rafah on May 7, crossing the Philadelphi Corridor and seizing the Palestinian side of the border with Egypt. Israel has long accused Hamas of using the Philadelphi corridor to smuggle weapons from Egypt.
Netanyahu also said there will be “no return of thousands of armed terrorists to the northern Gaza Strip,” the statement said.
What is the White House saying?
A US official told CNN Thursday that last week’s call between Biden and Netanyahu seemed to reach a “breakthrough” on the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2, adding that the deal is now “very consistent” with what Biden had laid out in May.
Asked if the administration believes that Netanyahu is playing politics and could try to sabotage the deal, the official said the deal is structured in a way that “fully protects Israel’s interests.”
The developments came after the US proposed new language to help bridge gaps in discussions for a deal, and as Biden scrambled for political survival after floundering in a presidential debate against his predecessor Donald Trump. Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict has been a key issue for voters.
Are the two sides closer to a deal?
Optimism that a deal may be reached has possibly been dampened by Netanyahu’s demands on Sunday.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized the prime minister, calling his statement “provocative.”
“What is it good for? We are at a critical moment in the negotiations, the lives of the abductees depend on it,” Lapid wrote Sunday on X. “Why issue such provocative messages? How does it contribute to the process?”
Baskin, the former negotiator, said that added US pressure is unlikely to sway the Israeli prime minister, who is battling for political survival amid anti-government protests demanding his resignation. Netanyahu is also bound by the demands of right-wing ministers in his coalition who are opposed to any compromise with Hamas.
US pressure is “strongly diminished now” after Biden’s debate against Trump, Baskin said. Biden’s weak debate performance only led more Democrats to express doubts that he can beat his opponent in the upcoming election.
“If the Americans are still optimistic (after Netanyahu’s Sunday statement), then they are really living in La La land,” Baskin told CNN. “They have really no idea what is going on in the mind of Netanyahu.”
Hamas to consider hostage deal without permanent ceasefire
A top Hamas official said on Sunday that the Palestinian militants were ready to discuss a hostage deal and an end to the Gaza war without a “complete and permanent ceasefire”.
The apparent easing of the Hamas position comes amid renewed mediation efforts by the United States, Qatar and Egypt to tempt the rivals into talks to halt nine months of war and secure a deal to release hostages held by Hamas and prisoners detained by Israel.
“Hamas had previously required that Israel agree to a complete and permanent ceasefire,” the official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“This step was by-passed, as the mediators pledged that as long as the prisoner negotiations continued, the ceasefire would continue,” he added.
Israel has previously strongly opposed Hamas’s demands for a permanent ceasefire, officials said.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has made the destruction of Hamas and the return of all of the hostages the central aim of Israel’s military campaign launched after the Oct 7 attacks.
US President Joe Biden outlined a plan on May 31 that he said was proposed by Israel and promised “a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages”.
An Israeli negotiator went to Doha for talks with the mediators on Friday. Israel said there are still “gaps” in counter-proposals made by Hamas, but that the negotiator would return to Doha this week.
An official with knowledge of the mediation said US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director William Burns would go to Qatar this week.
The Hamas official said Egypt and Turkey would also step up their efforts in coming days to reach an accord.
If full negotiations start, Hamas expects them to take two to three weeks, according to the official.
Biden said Israel’s plan proposed a first six-week truce with an Israeli withdrawal from populated areas of the Gaza Strip and an initial release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for some hostages seized on Oct 7.
The Hamas official said that if a ceasefire started it would want up to 400 trucks of aid to enter the besieged Palestinian territory each day.
The war started with Hamas’s Oct 7 attack on southern Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures.
Hamas also seized 251 hostages, according to Israel. Of the 116 hostages who remain in Gaza, 42 are believed by the Israeli army to be dead.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 38,153 people, mostly civilians, according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza.
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