• India's prime minister caused a shock after his reelection by publicly thanking Taiwan's leader.

• Many countries avoid publicly engaging with the island nation so as not to anger China.

• Tensions between India and China, Asia's two major powers, are increasing.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi riled China in one of his first acts after being reelected for a historic third term.

Modi, who was reelected in a much-narrower-than-expected victory on Tuesday, accepted the congratulations of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te.

"I look forward to closer ties as we work towards mutually beneficial economic and technological partnership," Modi wrote in a post on X.

China is often furious when countries publicly acknowledge Taiwan's independent status.

It has long considered Taiwan its rightful territory and is menacing the independently governed island with the prospect of invasion.

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At a press briefing in Beijing on Thursday, China's foreign ministry criticized Modi's message.

"India has made serious political commitments and is supposed to recognize, be alarmed about, and resist the Taiwan authorities' political calculations," said the ministry's spokeswoman, Mao Ning, according to Bloomberg.

Tensions between China and India, Asia's biggest powers, are increasing as New Delhi seeks to counter what it sees as intensifying Chinese aggression in the region. A clash on the countries' Himalayan border in 2020 resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers.

While India and Taiwan don't have formal diplomatic relations, Modi has sought to strengthen economic ties with Taiwan in his 10 years in office.

An employment pact between the two countries could allow Indians to work in Taiwan. Meanwhile, Taiwan is seeking to increase its investment in India.

John Deng, Taiwan's longest-serving cabinet member, told the Financial Times in April that there was "a foundation for India and Taiwan to move forward" with a trade deal.

"Taiwanese investments will help India develop its manufacturing infrastructure," he added. "India is competing with China as a global manufacturing hub, and this represents an opportunity for Taiwan to step up its business ties."

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What Modi 3.0 Means for the World

Some time ago, India achieved the status of a middle power: a country with a deep global footprint and heavy strategic importance, but not strong enough to ascend to the upper echelon of world powers. The reelection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi positions India to begin a transition from a middle to a major power. But that shift won’t be easy.

Modi will begin his third term on June 8 with a smaller mandate, and he will need to rely on coalition partners, who agreed to back him on Wednesday, to govern. But less political space won’t have a major impact on foreign policy, because there’s broad multipartisan support for Modi’s longstanding priority of deepening India’s role—and power—on the global stage.

India has truly come into its own as a top international actor. It’s the world’s most populous country. It has the fifth-largest economy (growing at one of the world’s fastest rates). It boasts one of the most rapidly expanding tech sectors. And, following its lunar landing last year, it’s now a formal space power.

Modi has plenty of motivations to leverage these achievements and accelerate India’s climb up the world’s power hierarchy. He has long prioritized strengthening India’s role in the world. The election manifesto of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2014, the year he first became premier, vowed to build “a strong, self-reliant, self-confident India, regaining its rightful place in the comity of nations.”

Modi’s signature ideology, Hindu nationalism, is about making India stronger abroad, not just at home. Modi also views Hindu nationalism as a soft power tool; he promises to institute a program to highlight Lord Ram’s legacy abroad.

Modi has already done much to advance India’s global rise. He’s gained it membership in an array of global forums, from a new quad arrangement with the U.S., the UAE, and Israel to the prestigious Missile Technology Control Regime. Modi solidified India’s status as a net security provider, increasing arms sales to Indo-Pacific partners and projecting naval power in the Middle East to protect and assist ships targeted by missiles and piracy.

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To the world, expanding Indian global power in a third Modi term presents opportunities and obstacles alike. Washington and like-minded allies could have an increasingly formidable partner to counter China. The Global South, the causes of which Modi has increasingly sought to champion, will have a powerful advocate. For capital-rich companies and countries, massive Indian consumer markets will beckon. Last month, external affairs minister S Jaishankar described his boss as a leader with “networking, standing, and respect.” He’s not wrong: most governments are keen to engage with Modi’s India.

But India’s growing global clout could raise some red flags. New Delhi’s embrace of multipolarity, through efforts to empower the Global South and strengthen multilateral organizations (including those it belongs to that counter the West), risks diluting U.S. power. India’s growing power also brings into sharper relief a fundamental conundrum for the West: How to square the strategic imperatives of partnership with an accelerating Indian illiberalism that fuels transnational repression—including some allegedly carried out on Western soil. But none of this will reverse India’s deepening security relations with Washington—a concern for Beijing and Moscow.

Admittedly, this may be putting the cart before the horse. India’s path to great powerdom, while possible under Modi, is not inevitable. To get there, he’ll need to make extensive course corrections.

One is hardwiring India’s economy for longer term stability and sustainability. Youth unemployment ranges from 44 to 54% for those in their 20s—staggering figures in a country where half the population is under 30. India needs more jobs and more skilled workers to accommodate fast-growing sectors and truly transform its economy into a global juggernaut.

India must also get a handle on its China challenge. It’s struggled mightily to deter its main strategic competitor. Chinese forces periodically stage border incursions and have built villages and roads on land India claims as its own. China is rapidly developing the capacity to project power in the Indian Ocean—from its western reaches, home to China’s only overseas military base, to areas to the east near the Andaman Sea, where India has territorial assets. An aspiring great power can’t afford to be bogged down by its biggest rival so close to home.

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Furthermore, India needs institutional fixes, like steps to accelerate the implementation of defense reforms and to increase the size of its diplomatic corps.

Another big challenge is the world itself. It’s undergoing severe churn and fraught with furious geopolitical competition.

India has traditionally navigated great power rivalry by doubling down on its core foreign policy principle of strategic autonomy, balancing ties with competing powers and avoiding alliances to maximize flexibility. But if current trends hold, and geopolitical competition and instability keep intensifying, Modi may find himself under growing pressure to get off the fence.

Still, he’s passed two tough recent tests. New Delhi has maintained close ties with Moscow, its longtime partner, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which India has declined to condemn, while managing to keep relations warm with the U.S. Meanwhile, it’s backing Israel’s war in Gaza, justifying it as a necessary counterterrorism move, even as its strong ties with the Palestinians and Arab capitals remain intact.

From this balancing act, India derives a unique form of global influence: It defies the polarization of power politics, straddling competing camps and positioning itself as a bridge and potential mediator.

Modi pledges to make India a Vishwaguru—a teacher and leader of the world. During his third term, India may strive to teach the world how a rising power can stay true to its founding foreign policy principle, even while staking out greater leadership in a changing world order.

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Modi is on a mission to assert India's global power. His election setback won't deter him.

• India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a narrower-than-expected reelection victory.

• But the setback likely won't deter his global ambitions.

• Modi wants to make India one of the world's major powers.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged from Tuesday's election victory with his air of invincibility damaged.

The strongman leader of the world's largest democracy had been predicted to win reelection for a third term by a landslide.

But his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to gain enough seats to claim outright victory, and it will need the support of coalition partners to form a government.

The result, though, is unlikely to deter Modi, as he continues to pursue one of the core goals of his decade in power: transforming India into one of the world's most powerful nations.

A leader of the Global South

Under Modi, India's growth has put it on the path to becoming the world's third-biggest economy by 2027 — and it has become an important and increasingly abrasive global power player.

Modi wants to position India as a leader of the Global South — a term often used to describe a group of developing nations — and for it to have a permanent position on the UN Security Council to mark its new global status.

He has strengthened ties with the US, a long-standing ally, but he's also sought to build ties with Russia and has clashed with Asia's chief power, China.

Modi will work to cement his foreign-policy legacy in his third term.

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Countering Chinese aggression

Richard Rossow, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that countering China's aggression and seeking foreign investment will be key focuses for Modi going forward.

"India's main priorities will remain unchanged," he said.

A clash between India and China in June 2020 over a long-simmering Himalayan border dispute resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers. Meanwhile, tensions in the Indian Ocean are escalating, with a report from earlier this year finding that China is mapping vast undersea areas in preparation for a potential naval conflict with the rival regional power.

India is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the US, Australia, and Japan, and it'll be looking to counter China's aggression by strengthening these strategic relationships.

"On security affairs, India wants to continue building partnerships that can help it manage belligerent actions China is taking today and in the future. This includes robust engagement with nations in its own neighborhood, particularly in the maritime domain," Rossow said.

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A dark side

India's new assertiveness under Modi has a dark side.

The Washington Post in April reported that India's security services were behind the assassination of a dissident in Canada last June and the attempted assassination of a Modi critic in the US, claims that India has denied.

Modi's disappointing election result is unlikely to change his often abrasive and aggressive pursuit of foreign goals.

"This election result is unlikely to have much of an impact on India's international security actions," Rossow said.

But Modi will face serious challenges in his efforts to cement India's new global status.

India has bought vast quantities of Russian oil, and that money has been used by Putin to fund his war in Ukraine. This move has aggravated the US, which has reportedly pressured Modi to stop the purchases.

Putin's "no limits" relationship with China's Xi Jinping presents another strategic conundrum for Modi, who seems keen to retain good ties with Putin but is wary of China's global might.

Modi's core challenges in the years ahead will be ensuring regional stability by avoiding war with China and Pakistan and continuing India's economic rise through vital domestic reforms.

"India's journey towards true great power capabilities is thus likely to be long and arduous," Ashley J. Tellis, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote.

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