As conflicted as our judgements might be about Israel’s conduct of its war in Gaza, there should be no ambiguity about our condemnation of Iran’s attack on Israel. Our outrage should be as deafening as was our outrage when Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine on February 22, 2022.

National security team in Washington.

Within our developed world order there is no place for unilateral acts of aggression towards the sovereign territory of one country by another. Such actions sit totally outside the international security structure of the UN created by multilateral agreement after the chaos of the Second World War and invigilated by the UN Security Council. Iran has made a grave error in a direct attack on Israel. It is only through the technical excellence of Israel’s air defence systems and the willing cooperation of some of her allies that this attack did not result in mass civilian casualties.

The pressure on Israel from the United States and other western countries, including the United Kingdom, to moderate its behaviour in Gaza has been put on hold while those same countries have stood with Israel in repelling Iran’s illegal attack. Of course, Israel was firmly in the lead in conducting its defensive operations against the Iranian attack, but the role of the US Central Command was pivotal as well.

As much as China, Russia or even Iran might like to believe they have superpower status, there is only one military superpower in the world still, and that is the United States. Even though Donald Trump might like the US to step back from its international policing duties, President Biden was in no doubt over the last few days that the US through Central Command (Centcom) has a vital role to protect the rights of one country when threatened by another. To the credit of other countries such as our own, there was a willingness to contribute to this defensive military operation. Our Prime Minister’s confirmation that RAF fighter jets shot down Iranian drones over Syria and Iraq claims justifiable credit for the UK participation in the operation.

The challenge for the next few days is, how does Israel react to the events of the weekend? Israeli minister Benny Gantz has said that Israel will “exact price” from Iran “in timing that is right for us”. In war, timing is everything, but the right time might not be now. Israel has burnt up much of its international support after the October 7 massacre by its heavy-handed tactics in Gaza – a poorly thought through operational campaign with no deliverable strategic objective – so would be well advised to pause now and make carefully considered decisions. A massive reaction against Iran itself could be counter-productive. Unlike Israel, Iran does not have sophisticated air defence systems and its allies are a polyglot array of terrorist groups scattered around the Middle East. A major strike by Israel on Tehran, Iran’s oil fields or putative nuclear sites could result in massive destruction and loss of life. A more nuanced approach would be to pause, reflect and then decide what action to take.

Flipping the coin, there are factors to consider. Had Iran chosen not to attack Israel directly herself but to do so through its proxy, Hezbollah, the region could have been today in a hugely different situation. Hezbollah has an estimated 130,000 to 150,000 missiles and rockets in southern Lebanon quite capable of striking the length and breadth of Israel. In the event of such an attack, the iron dome air defence system would undoubtedly have been overwhelmed with huge loss of life in Israel. In those circumstances, Israel has made it clear – and personally to me on my last visit to IDF headquarters – that such an attack would be met by a devastating counter offensive on southern Lebanon and the striking of targets in Iran itself. A consequent major conflict in the region would have been inevitable.

In the last week since the strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, the Iranians have calculated that a much-anticipated direct strike on Israel would cause only limited damage. They were right. A strike by Hezbollah would have been disastrous. Israel today needs to exercise restraint. That may well prove to be the right strategic option.