Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin has warned that the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between nuclear-armed nations has reached an alarming level. 

During a high-level disarmament conference, he addressed global security concerns and highlighted the escalating tensions and conflicts worldwide. 

Vershinin noted, “As we approach the 80th anniversary of the UN, we find ourselves in the midst of a severe crisis in international security.”

He attributed this instability to a fundamental struggle over the global order, where dominant powers seek to maintain their influence while others push for a more equitable, multipolar system. 

According to Vershinin, certain countries’ pursuit of global dominance has led to violations of the principle of equal and indivisible security. 

He accused these powers of disregarding the interests of other nations, undermining previous agreements, and striving for military superiority. This, he warned, forces other states to take compensatory measures, further fueling the cycle of confrontation. 

He pointed to ongoing crises in Ukraine and the Middle East as direct consequences of this growing instability. Vershinin argued that the Ukraine conflict stemmed from what he described as aggressive policies by Western nations, which he claimed sought to erase Russian influence from cultural and religious life. 

At the same time, he criticized the continued supply of long-range weapons to Kyiv, asserting that such actions only escalated the situation. 

Despite these tensions, Vershinin reiterated Russia’s stance in favor of a negotiated settlement. He stressed that any dialogue must be based on mutual respect and equality, aiming for a lasting peace rather than a temporary ceasefire. 

He insisted that the legitimate interests of all states and peoples in the region must be considered to achieve stability. 

“The dialogue must be founded on an equal and mutually respectful basis, aiming not for a fleeting truce, but for a lasting peace grounded in respect for the legitimate interests of all states and peoples in the region,” Vershinin concluded. 

The Looming Threat Of Nuclear Confrontation 

The most pressing threat of a direct confrontation exists between Russia and the United States, the two nations with the largest nuclear stockpiles—a risk even acknowledged by the United Nations. 

Their tense relationship has been strained by the ongoing war in Ukraine, where Russia has frequently accused NATO of escalating hostilities. Washington and its allies continue to provide military support to Ukraine, a development Moscow views as a direct provocation.

The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and Russia’s withdrawal from key arms control agreements indicate a growing willingness to challenge Western deterrence.

Moreover, last year, President Vladimir Putin officially reduced the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, a decision made in response to US President Joe Biden’s approval for Ukraine to target Russian territory using American-supplied long-range missiles.  

The updated policy specifies that Russia may resort to nuclear weapons if there is credible intelligence indicating the launch of ballistic missiles targeting Russian territory or that of its allies. 

Additionally, nuclear use could be considered if an adversary employs nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction against Russia, its allies, or Russian military forces and facilities stationed outside the country’s borders.

However, the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States has introduced a new dynamic in the efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. 

Since assuming office in January 2025, President Trump has initiated a series of diplomatic engagements aimed at de-escalating tensions between the US and Russia, thereby reducing the immediate risk of confrontation between the two nuclear-armed nations.

China is another key player in this global equation. Its expanding military presence, especially in the South China Sea and near Taiwan, has sparked concerns in Washington and among regional allies. 

In response, the US has bolstered its military footprint in the Indo-Pacific, heightening the chances of direct confrontations. Meanwhile, China’s nuclear arsenal, traditionally smaller than those of Russia and the US, is growing rapidly, adding further complexity to regional strategic stability. 

Beyond the US, Russia, and China, in 2023, as highlighted the Korean Peninsula as a likely flashpoint for nuclear conflict. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons against South Korea in the event of an attack.  

There is also a risk that a conflict involving North Korea could draw in China, or, alternatively, that a US-China confrontation could escalate into a broader regional crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

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