The United States Department of Defense (DoD) has announced that China plans to expand its submarine forces significantly by 2035. This will, they claim, include more stealthy submarines, which would be a stark improvement to their existing "noisy" conventional subs and threaten the newly minted Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS) pact.

This is especially worrying for Washington, as Chinese submarines now appear to come with their submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Such a development reportedly took the U.S. by surprise, as this is a lot sooner than they had anticipated.

To blunt any advantages this may give the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), AUKUS is seeking to bolster the Australian fleet and its anti-submarine capabilities. According to reports, this will include advanced sensor networks and analysis powered by artificial intelligence (AI).

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Besides their inherent ability to hide underwater, submarines are not immune to detection, especially with technology like sonar. For this reason, modern submarines rely heavily on stealth technology, which is critical for evading detection.

Silent death from the depths

Modern submarines, like the United States' Virginia-class, are some of the stealthiest. Integrating innovations like anechoic tiles (a rubberized coating), vibration-damping materials, and pump-jet propulsors, these subs are tough to detect from the surface.

Unlike conventional screw propellers, pump-jet systems minimize turbulence and wake, making these submarines harder to detect. These submarines also integrate advanced cooling systems to help reduce the signatures from their nuclear reactors.

Innovations like radar-absorbing materials and demagnetization techniques also help minimize other detectable signatures. However, as detection systems improve using things like quantum sensors, AI, and multi-domain networks, the effectiveness of such stealth measures is diminishing.

For this reason, experts predict that by 2050, so-called "ocean transparency" could render traditional submarine stealth obsolete, forcing navies to adopt new tactics. To this end, naval operators are exploring asymmetric strategies to maintain their edge.

These include deploying uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) to mask submarine signatures. Other potential innovations include using noise to confuse AI-based detection systems and targeting adversary sensor networks with cyberattacks or direct sabotage.

Other possible innovations include sophisticated cyberattacks on enemy sensor networks and, of course, physically taking them out. This would consist of covert missions to knock out undersea telecommunications cables, sensor nodes, etc, to create blind spots for submarines to operate safely.

AUKUS is not just about new subs

To this end, U.S. Virginia-class submarines are now equipped to launch UUVs, reflecting this shift toward a broader strategy of deception and disruption. Yet, despite its technological ambitions, the AUKUS pact faces practical challenges.

Under AUKUS, beyond building a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, the deal invests in advanced detection-countering capabilities, including AI analytics, quantum computing, and hypersonic weapons.

These tools are designed to neutralize China’s growing naval capabilities, especially as its submarines become quieter and harder to track.

So, as China accelerates its naval modernization, the AUKUS must balance investments in cutting-edge submarines with advances in detection and counter-detection technologies. The next decade will determine whether stealth submarines remain a cornerstone of undersea warfare or if new strategies emerge to redefine the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

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