Three senior U.S. diplomats arrived in Damascus to meet with representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, to discuss the transition process following the fall of the Assad regime less than two weeks ago. HTS remains on the U.S. list of terrorist groups but is now pushing to be removed. The U.S. has also not had diplomatic relations with Syria since 2012 and has not sent diplomats to the country in over a decade. (New York Times)

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Our Take

This diplomatic engagement reflects the mad scramble by a number of outside powers to establish contact and communication with HTS. The surprise swiftness with which the Assad regime fell means that many external powers are still simply trying to determine the new lay of the land in Damascus and even what their objectives will be in the country going forward. One thing is already clear, though: They all would like to have influence in the new Syria.

As of now, it appears that Turkey has the most leverage with the transitional government in Damascus, largely because it had a head start. During the years in which HTS was confined to overseeing the Idlib province in northern Syria, Turkey provided indirect assistance to the group, managed the flow of international aid into the province and maintained a nearby military presence that prevented attacks by Syrian government forces.

As a result, Turkey already has ties with HTS and significant influence over the current transition process. That has important implications for the ongoing fighting in Syria, since Turkish-backed forces continue to fight against U.S.-backed Kurdish militias in the northeast. But Turkey’s influence in Damascus will also almost certainly be diluted now that other major powers—like the U.S., Russia and other regional states—are establishing communication channels and diplomatic contacts with HTS and the new government in Syria.

These diplomatic missions could also pave the way for a multilateral role in Syria’s transition. As Richard Gowan and Maya Ungar wrote, HTS has made clear that it seeks international legitimacy, including diplomatic recognition, the removal of sanctions on Syria and its own delisting as a terrorist group. Working with the U.N. will be the most effective way to accomplish those goals, not to mention to secure investments for reconstruction. But for that to happen, the group will have to address the concerns of the veto-wielding members of the Security Council, in particular the U.S. and Russia.

Two weeks in, HTS’ next steps remain largely unclear, and in the swirl of uncertainty, virtually every outside power—with the exceptions of Turkey and Israel—is keeping its powder dry until they know more about what Syria’s new government will actually look like. That means it’s still too early to rule out the possibility of the post-Assad era being just as conflictual for Syria—and just as paralyzed for the multilateral process—as the past decade has been. But the kind of diplomatic outreach on display today is a necessary, if insufficient, step in the effort to avoid that outcome.

Angry residents in parts of France’s overseas territory of Mayotte jeered President Emmanuel Macron today as he toured neighborhoods to survey the damage from a devastating cyclone that struck the island—located off the coast of Africa—this past weekend. Yesterday, when some residents chanted a call for his resignation, Macron used an expletive and said, “You are happy to be in France. If it wasn’t for France, you would be 10,000 times worse off.”

The aftermath of the storm, including delayed responses by authorities, is likely to exacerbate a longstanding crisis of legitimacy for the French state in Mayotte and France’s other overseas territories. As Aude Darnal wrote in March, successive French governments have failed to design and implement efficient development strategies for these territories, which collectively make up the “Global South of France.”

Prosecutors in Peru have opened an investigation into an alleged prostitution ring inside Congress used to gain votes from lawmakers. The sex-for-votes scandal is just the latest to rock Peru’s government, as President Dina Boluarte also faces a number of allegations for illicit enrichment.

Both Peru’s president and Congress face dismally low approval ratings, but they have not let that lack of a popular mandate hold them back. As James Bosworth wrote in June, the legislature has passed law after law systemically undermining key democratic institutions even as lawmakers’ popularity creeps ever lower.

At a meeting of the U.N. Security Council on AI yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged nations to set rules for the use of AI to limit the security threats it poses. Virtually every country has said that a collective response is needed to address the growth of AI, but few have backed up that support with action. Still, as Gordon LaForge wrote in May, the U.N. should play a leading role in the AI governance ecosystem.

Australia has announced $118 million in funding to expand the police force in the Solomon Islands. Australia has long been the Pacific Island nation’s largest development partner, but China has made significant economic and security inroads there over the past decade. Still, as Catherine Wilson wrote in May, the election of a new leader in the Solomon Islands has opened up a door for the West to reverse that trend.

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