GOP trifecta on the line with House control in limbo

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The fight for the House majority is still too close to call.

While Donald Trump has won the presidency, it may be days or weeks until he knows if he’ll have powerful allies atop the House, due in part to close races in states that take longer to count ballots like California and Arizona. For months, neither party has held a significant edge, and both sides predicted modest gains if they get control of the House.

Results were still too close to call in a slew of battleground House races early Wednesday morning. The Associated Press projected that two Republican incumbents in New York would lose reelection: Reps. Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams.

Both of them represent districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats had invested heavily to try to wrest back control of the blue-state seats and saw them as a key path back to the House majority. In other battlegrounds, Republican Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.) and Anthony D’Esposito (N.Y.) were locked in close races, as were Democratic Reps. Susan Wild (Pa.) and Matt Cartwright (Pa.).

Other incumbents in competitive races held on. For Republicans, that included Reps. Zach Nunn in Iowa, Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey, Nick LaLota in New York and Monica De La Cruz in Texas. Democratic incumbents, like Reps. Pat Ryan in New York and Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico, also prevailed.

With the Senate in Republican hands, Trump could get the sought-after trifecta if House Republicans win — paving the way for Republican legislative priorities on tax cuts and more. But if Democrats manage to flip the chamber, a split Congress could mean Trump faces the same partisan fights over spending and the debt ceiling that have plagued lawmakers over the past two years.

Speaker Mike Johnson, in a statement early Wednesday morning, vowed that “House Republicans stand ready and prepared to immediately act on Trump’s America First agenda to improve the lives of every family, regardless of race, religion, color, or creed, and make America great again” if the GOP keeps the majority. Johnson appeared with Trump as he spoke to supporters early Wednesday morning in West Palm Beach, Florida.

With the hopes of expanding their majority, Republicans were far more intentional with their candidate recruitment and which challengers they backed in the primaries than they were in 2022. House Republicans’ campaign arm worked closely with Trump, coordinating to boost candidates the party saw as the most likely to win the general election.

Meanwhile, Democrats, who held a commanding lead on fundraising and hammered on the message of abortion rights, relied in part on a slate of repeat challengers who narrowly lost in 2022. The bet was that they would benefit from existing campaign infrastructure and name ID among voters. It’s to be seen if that strategy pays off, as many of those matchups have yet to be called.

Both sides had hoped that redistricting would provide their side with a significant advantage, but several new maps in a handful of states ultimately didn’t heavily tilt in Democrats’ or Republicans’ favor overall. The creation of new districts in the South to provide more voting power to Black voters was largely offset by an aggressive GOP gerrymander in North Carolina, and a not-so-aggressive Democratic redraw in New York.

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What a GOP congressional majority could mean for a Trump presidency

Republicans are projected to have won control of the U.S. Senate after flipping several Democratic seats, and as the battle for the White House and the House of Representatives rages on, the GOP appears to be in a position to take control of not only Congress but also the presidency -- potentially putting former President Donald Trump on a glide path for policy approvals and Cabinet appointees should he win.

With Senate control flipping from Democrats to Republicans, it could help boost the agenda of a possible Trump White House -- or block the priorities of a Kamala Harris presidency. Some of those priorities could be Cabinet appointees or potential Supreme Court justice confirmations. Federal judge confirmations could be either hampered or cleared depending on control, too.

All 425 House seats are up for election -- and all eyes are on the key races that could potentially determine which party has control. Republicans currently control the lower chamber, but maintain a slim majority.

PHOTO: Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno during a watch party on election night,  Nov. 5, 2024, in Westlake, Ohio, with his wife Bridget.  (Sue Ogrocki/AP)
PHOTO: Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno during a watch party on election night, Nov. 5, 2024, in Westlake, Ohio, with his wife Bridget. 

Should the Senate, House and White House all go for the GOP, it will be the second time Trump has enjoyed such unity. Trump began his presidency in 2017 with a GOP-controlled House and Senate. Both former presidents Barack Obama in 2009 and Bill Clinton in 1993 also began their White House stints with Democratic control in both the House and Senate.

Still, in the Trump, Obama and Clinton presidencies, at least one of the chambers flipped in the next election.

While it may seem rare to have single-party control of the executive and legislative branches, it's not all that uncommon at the beginning of a president's first term, according to an analysis by Pew Research Center. It has been the case for 16 of 21 presidents dating back to Theodore Roosevelt -- though a few exceptions exist: Republicans George W. and George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon, Pew Research Center found in its analysis of data going back to the 56th Congress from 1899-1901.

While control of the House and the White House still up for grabs, it's the first time in four years that the Senate has had control of the upper chamber -- something Republican senators are celebrating.

"As I've said, this election is not about us but rather what is best for the conference and the nation. I look forward to working with President Trump and our new conservative majority to make America great again by making the Senate work again," Texas Sen. John Cornyn said in a statement.

Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso said Senate Republicans are "focused on getting this country back on track."

"Voters are trusting Senate Republicans with an extraordinary opportunity," Barrasso said in a statement. "As a new Republican Senate majority, our focus will be to take on an agenda that reflects America's priorities – lower prices, less spending, secure borders, and American energy dominance. That is what we will set out to do on Day One. Our new Republican Senators will be instrumental in the success of this agenda."

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