Europe is about to help Putin seize victory from the jaws of defeat

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Just as Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has the Russians on the run, the Germans are poised to cut military aid to their embattled ally by 94 per cent over the next three years. A well-sourced report in the influential Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, revealing how German support for Ukraine will fall from its current level of £6.8 billion to just £425 million by 2027, has prompted accusations of betrayal in Berlin. So far, there has been no official denial from Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the ruling centre-Left coalition.

In Kyiv, the report is being dismissed as “manipulation”, cooked up by pro-Russian factions. But Germany was already intending to halve its funding for Ukraine next year and these projections follow the same trajectory. The usual excuses will be trotted out: Germany is bound by law to balance its budget, the coalition is hopelessly divided, and war weariness has sapped public support for Ukraine.

All this is true, but hardly adequate to explain why a nation that has hitherto prided itself on being Europe’s biggest donor, second only to the United States globally, is now abdicating its responsibility.

The official line is that Germany is handing over its role to Europe as a whole, which is the path of least resistance. In practice, it means replacing actual military hardware with nebulous promises that may never materialise. At the G7 summit in June, a tentative agreement was reached to use $300 billion (£230 billion) in frozen Russian assets as collateral for a €50 billion loan to Ukraine. But from Kyiv’s point of view, the loan scheme is pie in the sky.

The success of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia has blindsided Berlin. By turning the tables on the Russian invaders, Zelensky’s warriors have unnerved the Germans, for whom the words “Kursk offensive” conjure up unwelcome ghosts from the past. On the same fields in July 1943, Hitler lost the biggest tank battle in history. Putin’s propaganda machine smears Zelensky’s government as “Nazis”. Now German panzers may be back at Kursk. In Washington, the German abandonment of Ukraine will reinforce isolationist sentiment, providing ammunition for Donald Trump’s claims about Europe’s freeloading. In Moscow, it signals that Putin only has to wait for Ukraine to run out of arms and ammunition.

As the third largest economy in the world, Germany could well afford to increase its assistance to Ukraine – less than 0.2 per cent of its $5 trillion GDP. Yet Scholz is instead continuing the old Ostpolitik of appeasing Putin that began under Gerhard Schröder and was continued by Angela Merkel. This could be Scholz’s Munich moment.

At next year’s federal elections, Scholz is likely to be replaced by his centre-Right rival, Friedrich Merz. This could be an opportunity for Germany to rally the Western alliance, in the Cold War tradition of Adenauer, Schmidt and Kohl. Instead, Merz appears desperate to return to business as usual with Russia.

Germany is irreplaceable in Europe. France has no government and both its far-Left and far-Right are pro-Russian. Sir Keir Starmer seems more interested in Gaza and may even follow the German example of quietly withdrawing military support. Zelensky will go it alone if necessary. He is increasingly confident of victory, especially with F-16 aircraft coming into action soon. But Germany is in effect telling him to sue for peace on Putin’s terms – however catastrophic that would be for Ukraine, Europe and the West.

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Defense Shares Fall as Report on Ukraine Aid Stokes Concern

European defense stocks slid on Monday, paring some big year-to-date gains, after a weekend report from local media suggested that Germany will no longer grant new requests for aid to Ukraine in an effort to rein in spending.

The government pushed back against the claim in a press conference on Monday, saying that the country would continue to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion for as long as necessary.

Germany’s Rheinmetall AG fell as much as 5.1% in Frankfurt and Hensoldt AG slumped 7.6% before paring some of the losses. Norway’s Kongsberg Gruppen ASA dipped as much as 4%.

A basket of defense-exposed European shares tracked by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped as much as 3.4%, still up 46% this year after investors piled into the sector amid global geopolitical unrest.

READ: Monday, Germany Pushes Back Against Report on Ending Ukraine Support

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported on Saturday that while existing German aid programs to Ukraine should generally continue, additional applications for military support will not be approved. It cited government documents, emails and unidentified officials.

Stocks such as Rheinmetall are coming back from technically overbought positions. The shares fell abruptly in April after Goldman analysts warned of high valuations.

A spokesperson for Rheinmetall declined to comment on the German government’s budgetary discussions, but said the defense firm would continue its close and strategic partnership with Ukraine, noting that other NATO and EU member states were also among its customers.

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Ukrainian ambassador appeals for German support in budget

The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Oleksii Makeiev, has urged the government not to waver in its support for Ukraine, according to a German newspaper report on Sunday.

Makeiev emphasized that the security of Europe depends on Germany's ability and political will to continue playing a leading role in supporting Ukraine, in Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

He expressed hope that the government would find ways to fund their joint security needs and that the parliament, or Bundestag, would speak strongly and clearly on the 2025 budget.

His comments come after another newspaper report stating the German government does not plan to release any additional money for military support to Ukraine for the time being.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) report cites a letter from Finance Minister Christian Lindner dated August 5.

The letter, also seen by dpa, suggests that future support for Ukraine might come from interest on frozen Russian state assets, as decided by the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialized states.

On Saturday, a spokesman for the Ministry of Finance said the ministry was ready to consider the short-term provision of additional funds. He stated that the additional needs must be reported concretely and be comprehensible to comply with all budgetary regulations, and that the Bundestag would be asked for its approval on this basis.

So far, no specific request for need has been submitted to the Ministry of Finance, meaning it cannot be examined or decided, he said, handing responsibility to the Defence Ministry.

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Germany plans to cut Ukraine aid to just 6pc of current total

Germany plans to reduce its military support for Ukraine to about 6 per cent of what it is now by 2027.

Earlier this summer, Berlin announced it would halve its funding for Kyiv from the current €8 billion (£6.8 million) to just €4 billion in 2025.

But a draft budget seen by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper reveals plans to cut spending to a mere €500 million in 2027.

The draft budget has sparked a torrent of criticism as Ukrainian forces seek to defend the country against Russia’s invasion.

Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, has struggled to find budget cuts to meet a huge hole in Berlin’s finances, with aid to Ukraine apparently falling victim to the shortfall.

In 2026, Ukraine will only receive around €3 billion from Germany. In 2027 and 2028, the figure falls to €500 million.

Some plans are already being put on ice. An air-defence system manufacturer Diehl planned to provide to Kyiv – if it received the funds from Berlin – is now seen as unlikely to be delivered.

Since 2022, Germany has allocated some €34 billion in military, humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine – making the scale of the planned drawdown clear.

‘We must not sacrifice Ukraine’

“The German government has declared, like a mantra, that Germany is now the second-largest military supporter of Ukraine after the USA. It would be fatal now if the impression arose that Ukraine’s security and freedom no longer had any value to us,” said Michael Roth, chairman of the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee and member of Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats. “We must not sacrifice Ukraine’s fate on the altar of the debt brake.”

Christian Lindner, finance minister – whose liberal Free Democrats form part of Mr Scholz’s Left-leaning ‘‘traffic-light” coalition along with the Greens – argues Kyiv will be able to replace German funding through €50 billion the G7 recently agreed to make available from Russian central bank assets frozen in 2022.

However, critics point out this money is only a loan to Ukraine using the frozen assets as collateral – and will only last Ukraine about a year – with no G7 agreement yet for seizing the $300 billion in frozen assets themselves. Germany has also been one of the most reluctant to seize Russia’s assets.

“The idea that these cuts can be compensated with the interest on frozen Russian assets right now is absurd. The financial instruments simply don’t exist yet,” said Mattia Nelles, chief executive of the German-Ukraine Bureau. “Cutting military aid now is the worst possible time. It weakens Ukraine and sends the wrong signal to Moscow about our commitment.”

Roderich Kiesewetter, an MP with the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and deputy chair of parliament’s intelligence oversight committee, said the cuts would make the government’s recently signed security agreement with Ukraine “hot air and worthless”.

“Kohl, Schmidt and Adenauer would all turn in their graves!” Mr Kiesewetter tweeted, invoking the names of chancellors whose historical achievements included German entry into Nato and German reunification. “This isn’t how a self-proclaimed ‘leading nation’ in Europe conducts itself and it sends a fatal signal to our European partners, the US, and to Ukraine.”

Germany is set to have federal elections in 2025, which Mr Kiesewetter’s CDU is expected to win. However, Friedrich Merz, CDU leader, hasn’t yet said anything publicly whether he would reverse the cuts if he becomes chancellor.

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Germany hopes interest from Russian assets will ease the strain of financing aid to Ukraine

German officials on Monday rejected suggestions that national budget constraints could hurt weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Berlin is its biggest supplier after the United States.

The German government hopes a $50 billion international loan package funded by interest on profits from frozen Russian assets will ease some of the strain of financing military support to Kyiv starting next year.

Weekend reports that aid financing could be curbed by Germany's domestic budget concerns drew criticism from some in the governing coalition.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government has struggled to balance the priorities of three ideologically disparate parties and produce budgets that comply with Germany's strict self-imposed rules on running up debt.

This year's budget foresees nearly 7.5 billion euros ($8.3 billion) in military aid for Ukraine while next year's plan is for 4 billion euros, a figure that could increase as the budget goes through parliament.

The government hopes the loan package for Ukraine that Group of Seven leaders agreed to in June will play a growing role in financing aid, with Kyiv procuring weapons directly. Interest earned on profits from Russia’s frozen central bank assets would be used as collateral.

German government spokesperson Wolfgang Büchner said Germany is confident that the system will be set up by the end of this year.

Büchner said “there is no European state that has planned more support for Ukraine, including next year” and it's reasonable for Germany's planned support to diminish in coming years as the “windfall profits” from seized Russian assets come into play.

“Germany remains absolutely engaged, and the chancellor's word is still valid that support for Ukraine will be continued for as long as necessary, and that no one, above all the Russian president, can hope that we will let up,” he told reporters in Berlin.

A letter from Finance Minister Christian Lindner to the defense and foreign ministers, cited by German news agency dpa on Saturday, said additional “new measures” on aid to Ukraine could only be embarked on if financing is secured in the budget plans.

However, Defense Ministry spokesperson Arne Collatz said all ministries are convinced that “pragmatic solutions” will be found for any short-term needs that arise, and the Finance Ministry said it's prepared to look at such additional requirements.

Collatz and Büchner dismissed suggestions that IRIS-T air defense systems, for example, might not be delivered as pledged.

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