Tensions in the South China Sea have escalated, focusing on the dispute between China and the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. Both are within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) but claimed by China.

Chinese academic Wu Shicun has proposed a controversial three-point plan to resolve the conflict. However, the proposal has sparked concerns among regional players. Instead of diffusing the situation, Wu’s strategy might escalate tensions further, complicating the already fraught geopolitical landscape.

Scarborough & Second Thomas Shoals

Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated over the past two years, primarily due to disputes over two significant territories: Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands.

Scarborough Shoal, a rocky formation in the South China Sea, lies about 120 nautical miles (222 km) west of Luzon, the largest island in the Philippines, within the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In China, it is referred to as “Huangyan Dao,” while in the Philippines, it is known as “Panatag Shoal” or “Bajo de Masinloc.”

The Spratly Islands, a group of over 100 islands and reefs, are claimed in part by the Philippines, but China asserts sovereignty over the entire archipelago. These islands are significant due to their rich fishing grounds and potential reserves of gas and oil.

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The Second Thomas Shoal is one of many disputed territories in the Spratly Islands. It falls within the Philippines’ 200-nautical mile (370 km) EEZ but is also claimed by China. It is known as “Ayungin Shoal” in the Philippines and “Renai Reef” in China.

The small rocky island holds both strategic and economic importance in the South China Sea. Over the past year and a half, the waters surrounding the shoal have been a hotspot for rising tensions between Beijing and Manila, with the area becoming a central point of their ongoing territorial dispute.

Chinese Aggression & The Escalating Dispute

The dispute over the shoals is a complex issue involving not just the primary claimants but also other regional powers and the broader geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea. China asserts sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, while the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam each claim various overlapping areas.

The standoff between the Philippines and China has become increasingly volatile in 2012. China’s takeover of Scarborough Shoal prompted the Philippines to bring the matter before the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

In 2016, the court ruled that China’s claim to 90% of the South China Sea lacked legal basis under international law. Despite this ruling, tensions persist. Both China and the Philippines frequently accuse each other of actions that harm the marine environment, exacerbating the ongoing dispute.

The BRP Sierra Madre Standoff

At the heart of the ongoing and increasingly tense maritime standoffs is the BRP Sierra Madre, a deteriorating World War II-era Philippine navy vessel.

The US transferred this retired ship to the Philippine Navy in 1976, where it was used as a transport until the 1990s. It was deliberately grounded at the Second Thomas Shoal 25 years ago (in 1999) to serve as a military outpost. It is currently manned by a small contingent of Philippine troops.

In the first week of July 2024, the Chinese government called for the immediate removal of the BRP Sierra Madre, citing its significant damage to the marine environment. Xiong Xiaofei, chief scientist at the South China Sea Ecological Centre, emphasized that removing the vessel is crucial to preventing ongoing and cumulative harm to the Renai Reef coral ecosystem.

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The report concluded that the ship’s grounding had caused “fatal damage to the coral reef ecosystem,” which would not recover unless the Sierra Madre is removed. The rusting of the ship’s hull and the discharge of human waste by Philippine soldiers stationed on it have created “long-term hazards to the healthy growth of the coral.”

Since early 2023, there have been repeated incidents concerning Manila’s resupply efforts for troops stationed on the vessel. China has blocked Philippine resupply missions to the outpost, leading to confrontations between the two sides.

Beijing asserted that it had a “gentleman’s agreement” with former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, who focused on enhancing relations with China during his presidency.

According to Beijing, this informal agreement allowed the Philippines to resupply the ship “out of humanitarian considerations.” The terms of the arrangement reportedly required Manila to provide advance notice of resupply missions, accept Chinese on-site supervision, and exclude the transfer of construction materials.

However, Duterte’s successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (Bongbong Marcos), who took office in 2022, has denied that such a deal existed, and tensions between Beijing and Manila have escalated.

The most recent and serious confrontation occurred on June 17, when, according to Manila, a Chinese coast guard vessel rammed a Philippine resupply ship, injuring eight Philippine sailors, including one who lost his thumb.

Wu Shicun’s Three-Point Plan

Chinese academics are intensifying their efforts to assert Beijing’s claims in the contested South China Sea.

“Narrative construction and discourse building are crucial for defending our rights and interests in the South China Sea—both now and in the future,” Wu Shicun, a leading scholar on South China Sea affairs and founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, emphasized at a recent seminar, as reported by the South China Morning Post.

Recently, in response to the escalating standoff, Wu Shicun proposed a daring Three-Point Plan aimed at gaining control over the Second Thomas Shoal. Central to his strategy is a proposed blockade of the BRP Sierra Madre, the World War II-era ship that the Philippines has grounded on the shoal to assert its territorial claim.

Wu describes the ongoing confrontations over the shoal as a ‘bleeding wound’ that must be addressed to prevent further escalation.

“China’s delayed efforts to restore tranquility on the Second Thomas Shoal may encourage the Philippines to undertake more aggressive actions,” Wu told the Chinese news outlet Guancha.

Diplomatic Timeline: Wu advocates for China to “diplomatically set a timeline for the Philippines to withdraw from the Second Thomas Shoal,” specifying deadlines for military personnel withdrawal and arrangements for humanitarian aid during the transition. He argues that a clear timetable could end the protracted “cat-and-mouse game” over the contested reef.

Blockade Strategy: If the Philippines fails to comply with this proposed timeline, Wu suggests that China should adopt a more assertive approach. He proposes that Beijing implement measures to “prevent and block the Philippines from engaging in provocative and status quo-altering activities,” such as cutting off maritime and air-dropped resupplies to the reef.

“Humanitarian” Evacuation: According to Wu, a prolonged blockade could create a “survival crisis” for the Philippine troops stationed at the shoal. From a humanitarian perspective, China could then establish a “special corridor” to allow the retrieval of the Philippine personnel from the ‘temporary alert zone.’

This audacious plan has sent ripples through diplomatic circles, raising alarm bells from Manila to Washington. It’s a bold move in China’s long-term strategy to control the South China Sea, a vital waterway through which trillions of dollars in trade pass annually.

Will The Plan Resolve The Dispute?

According to The Geostrata, an Indian think tank, ‘The plan assumes that this withdrawal will lead to the end of the cat-and-mouse game’ between Manila and Beijing. Shicun’s ideas reflect Beijing’s aggressive strategy to assert its dominance in the South China Sea. They also assume that there would be no response from the other actors in the region.

The critical question is whether Wu Shicun’s plan will resolve the territorial dispute or merely escalate tensions between China and the Philippines, potentially involving other regional actors.

The answer, like the shifting tides of the South China Sea, remains uncertain. What’s clear is that this plan assumes a passive response from other regional players – may be a dangerous miscalculation in the complex web of Asian geopolitics.

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