EurAsian Times understands that Turkey would have to obtain approval from the Kremlin to sell the S-400 to a third party — a possibility that remains distant as Ankara has made no indication that it wants to get rid of the system. On the contrary, it has so far dismissed all such calls.

Turkey’s Potential Sale Of S-400

Turkey already convinced the US to sell the F-16 to Ankara in January this year and may not have to turn over its S-400 to secure the jets. Ankara has reportedly backtracked and scaled back the number of upgrade kits and munitions meant for modernizing its aging F-16s and is currently eyeing the Eurofighter Typhoon.

It might be worthwhile to explore if Turkey would consider trading its S-400 systems for a possible acquisition of F-35 Lightning II jets.

Before being kicked out of the F-35 consortium, Turkey was a lead participant. With plans to purchase 100 F-35As for its air force, Turkey was also involved in the production of over 900 F-35 parts for operators worldwide.

With its arch enemy and rival, Greece, now opting for an F-35 fighter jet besides the Rafales in its inventory, Turkey certainly needs to add more teeth to its air fleet. Fortunately, the two NATO allies have come a long way, with Washington hinting at a possible ending of the schism and a potential sale of F-35s to Turkey.

In January this year, Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland of the United States said that Turkey might be able to rejoin the F-35 program provided the S-400 problem was fixed. However, Ankara continues to dilly-dally on the issue.

The Turkish leadership has refused to backtrack on the decision to keep the S-400. In May this year, Defense Minister Yasar Guler refuted reports that Ankara intended to give surface-to-air missile systems it bought from Russia to another nation, most likely Ukraine. “Transferring the S-400s to any country is out of the question,” he said on CNN Turk.

Experts suggest that Turkey’s steadfast support of the Russian S-400 is due to a multitude of other factors. Professors David E. Banks of King’s College, London, and Lisel Hintz of Johns Hopkins University argued in a study that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been unable to back down from the S-400 contract due to domestic pressures and the significance that his administration, its supporters, and others in Turkey placed on it despite its shortcomings. EurAsian Times explained in a detailed analysis why Ankara chose the S-400 over the F-35.

If Turkey were to consider selling the S-400, it would need Russian approval. Interestingly, India is grappling with delays in the delivery of the S-400 systems from Russia. Transferring the AD system to India is not a bad idea, but New Delhi shares frigid ties with Ankara, so any deal is quite unlikely.

The other potential buyer ‘shortlisted’ by Calgar was Pakistan. A military analyst who did not want to be named told the EurAsian Times, “Russia is unlikely to sell the S-400 to Pakistan since India is a strategic partner and would raise strong objections to the sale of the system, particularly because it has deployed the system to deter Pakistan.”

Secondly, S-400s are expensive systems, and economically struggling Pakistan may not have the financial resources to acquire them.

Turkey can even sell the systems to Ukraine under US & Western pressure; however, that would sink its ties with Russia. It is unlikely to happen under Ergogan.