Ukraine’s surprise attack in Kursk has humiliated the Russian army
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with members of the government.
After more than two years of being subjected to Russian military aggression, Ukraine is on the offensive. On Tuesday morning, at least 300 Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border into Kursk. After attacking border patrols in Nikolayevo-Darina and Oleshnya, Ukrainian forces swiftly occupied 350 square kilometers of Russian territory and took dozens of Russians as POWs.
Ukraine’s offensive operations in Kursk show no sign of slowing down. Overnight, Ukrainian forces reportedly seized control of Sudzhna, reached the outskirts of Korenevo and advanced northward to Malaya Loknya. In less than forty-eight hours, Ukraine has captured more territory than during the entire ill-fated summer 2023 counter-offensive.
In keeping with operational secrecy protocols, Ukraine’s General Staff has not commented on the Kursk incursion. Notwithstanding Kyiv’s radio silence, it is abundantly clear that the Kursk offensive advances three key Ukrainian objectives.
The first is siphoning Russian forces from offensive operations in Donetsk. Over the past week, Russian forces have seized control of the villages of Progres, Yevgenivka and Niu-York. These advances are part of Russia’s strategy of consolidating control over Toretsk’s logistical centers and elevated terrain. Although Ukraine disputes Russia’s claimed seizure of Niu-York, Zelensky recently admitted that “It’s difficult all along the Eastern Front.” As the prospect of major gains in Kharkiv is remote, Russia could redirect even more conscripts to Donetsk in the weeks ahead. Ukraine’s Kursk offensive complicates that process.
The second is sowing discord within Russia. Since Russia regained marginal offensive momentum in early 2023, pro-Ukrainian Russian partisans have made periodic incursions into Russian territory. In May and June 2023, the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russian Legion briefly occupied several border settlements in Belgorod. These cross-border operations extended to Kursk in March 2024. Much like the Kremlin UAV episode, these raids aimed to smash Russia’s increasingly fragile sense of security and show the Russian public that the war can come to them.
Ukraine’s current offensive in Kursk picks up from where these abortive raids left off. Although the Russian Defense Ministry swiftly claimed that it was destroying the 300 Ukrainian militants who crossed the border into Kursk, President Vladimir Putin was forced to call a security council meeting and publicly attack Ukraine’s “major provocation.” Russian pro-war Telegram channels have defied the Ministry of Defense’s calls for calm by highlighting the gravity of the situation and expressing frustration with the slow deployment of reinforcements to Kursk. After days of showcasing itself as the winner from the prisoner exchange deal, the Kremlin has been embarrassed.
The third is to advance a land swap deal during future talks. The Discord Leaks revealed that Zelensky pondered the occupation of Russian villages as a means of getting leverage over Moscow. Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Ukraine launched its Kursk offensive to bolster its future bargaining position. A Kharkiv-for-Kursk land swap is being mooted. While it is unclear whether Ukraine can hold villages in Kursk, the offensive has shown that breaching Russian territory is easier than destroying Russia’s fortifications in eastern Ukraine.
Despite their initial momentum, Ukraine’s advances in Kursk are likely to be short-lived. Western and domestic pressure will likely force Kyiv to change tack. The US is apparently mystified by Kyiv’s actions and European gas prices have risen to 2024 highs over Ukraine’s seizure of Sudzha gas export hub. Domestic criticisms of the diversion of precious manpower away from the core frontlines and civilian costs could convince Kyiv to stand down. The threat of more intensified Russian strikes on Sumy, which is adjacent to Kursk, forced 6,000 people to evacuate.
Nevertheless, the Kursk offensive shows that Russia has not learnt its lessons from the Wagner Group’s lightning seizure of Rostov during its June 2023 mutiny. Aside from predictable threats of annihilating Ukraine and using tactical nuclear weapons, Russia has not responded meaningfully to the Kursk offensive. With F-16 jets also arriving on the frontlines, Putin has plenty of reasons to worry.
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Putin vows retaliation after Ukraine launches major offensive inside Russia
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Russia says its troops are battling to push Ukrainian forces back a cross-border incursion in Kursk
Russian troops are battling to push back Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region on the third day of one of the largest cross-border incursions of the war, the Russian Defense Ministry said Thursday.
A ministry statement said the Russian military and border guards have blocked Ukrainian forces from pushing deeper into the region in southwestern Russia. It added that the army is attacking Ukrainian fighters trying to advance into the area from Ukraine's Sumy region.
“Attempts by individual units to break through deep into the territory in the Kursk direction are being suppressed,” the ministry said.
Ukrainian troops had advanced as much as 15 kilometers (9 miles) into Russian territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. The data that hasn't been officially confirmed.
Kyiv has not commented on the incursion. In a video address to the nation late Thursday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not mention the fighting in the Kursk region but emphasized that “Russia brought the war to our land, and it should feel what it has done.”
“Ukrainians know how to achieve their goals,” Zelenskyy said, adding that he received three “productive reports, exactly the kind our country needs now” on Thursday from the commander of Ukraine's armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Russia says the military has stemmed Ukrainian advances in the border area about 500 kilometers (about 320 miles) southwest of Moscow, but military bloggers and open source data indicate Ukrainian troops have made gains in several areas in Kursk.
The Kursk region’s acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, briefed Russian President Vladimir Putin on conditions there by video link Thursday. Smirnov said the region plans to equip gas stations with electronic warfare units and to provide them with unspecified armored defense.
Kursk regional authorities reported Wednesday that at least five civilians, including two ambulance workers, were killed. Russia’s Health Ministry said 66 civilians, including nine children, have been wounded in the Kursk region in the three days of fighting.
Putin, who described the incursion as a “large-scale provocation" that involved “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses and ambulances” was briefed on the situation by his top military and security officials on Wednesday.
Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian military's General Staff, told Putin via video link that about 100 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the battle and more than 200 others were wounded.
It wasn't possible to independently verify the Russian claims. During the war, now in its third year, disinformation and propaganda have played a central role.
John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesman, declined to comment on the operation and said the Biden administration has reached out to the Ukrainians to better understand the situation.
The cross-border foray would be among Ukraine’s largest since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
Kyiv’s aim could be to draw Russian reserves to the area, potentially weakening Moscow’s offensive operations in several parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces have increased attacks and are advancing gradually toward operationally significant gains.
But it could risk stretching outmanned Ukrainian troops further along the front line, which is more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) long.
Even if Russia were to commit reserves to stabilize the new front, given its vast manpower and the relatively small number of Ukrainian forces engaged in the operation, it would likely have little long-term impact. Pulling units from the front line to stabilize the Kursk region would also be time consuming.
However, the operation could boost Ukrainian morale at a time when Kyiv’s forces are facing relentless Russian attacks, with more expected in the coming weeks.
Myhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Zelenskyy, said Thursday that border region attacks will cause Russia to “start to realize that the war is slowly creeping inside of Russian territory.” He also suggested such an operation would improve Kyiv's hand in the event of negotiations with Moscow.
“When will it be possible to conduct a negotiation process in the way that we can push them or get something from them? Only when the war is not going on according to their scenarios,” he said.
Several Ukrainian brigades stationed along the border region would not comment, along with Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and General Staff.
Russian forces have swiftly repelled previous cross-border incursions, but not before they caused damage and embarrassed authorities.
Responsibility for previous incursions into Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions has been claimed by two murky groups: the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion, made up of Russian citizens and have fought alongside Ukrainian forces.
The Kursk region’s border with Ukraine is 245 kilometers (150 miles) long, making it possible for saboteur groups to launch swift incursions and capture some ground before Russia deploys reinforcements.
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