Chepa mentioned that this situation serves as a valuable test for refining Russia’s air defense systems. He predicted that American officials would be displeased when Ukrainian pilots face defeats not only from Russian air defense systems but also from the advanced Russian aircraft, particularly the Su-57. 

He also emphasized the effectiveness of the air-to-air missiles available to the Russian Armed Forces, noting their superiority over those used by Ukrainian fighters. This technological advantage, according to Chepa, ensures that Russian aircraft, including the Su-57, remain dominant in aerial engagements. 

Ukrainian F-16s May Not Be A Game-Changer

Kyiv has been notably reserved regarding the specific armament and operational targets of its incoming F-16 fighter jets. 

However, footage released by the Ukrainian President on August 4 shows the F-16AMs equipped with AIM-9M Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, indicating their intended role in air defense.

The F-16s will enhance Ukraine’s ability to defend its airspace and intercept Russian cruise missiles, a crucial advantage given Russia’s recent capacity to bypass existing surface-to-air defense systems and target civilian infrastructure within Ukraine. 

Although these F-16s do not feature the advanced active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars found on newer fighters or those being retrofitted to older models, they still represent a valuable asset. 

For comparison, Ukraine’s MiG-29s, which were previously used for similar roles, were equipped with less sophisticated radar and avionics compared to the upgraded AN/APG-66 radars of the F-16AMs.

The F-16s are also poised to enhance Ukraine’s capabilities with the integration of advanced standoff attack munitions. These new jets are compatible with a broad range of NATO’s air-launched weapons. 

For instance, Ukraine has already incorporated JDAM-ERs, GBU-39/B Small-Diameter Bombs, and ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoys (MALD) into its F-16 arsenal. 

Despite these enhancements, experts advise against viewing the F-16s as a revolutionary change in the conflict dynamics. 

In an analysis, Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said, “The F-16 models that Ukraine has now begun to receive are a clear step up from the Soviet-era jets inherited from the USSR, boasting superior radar capabilities and longer range. At the same time, Ukraine’s F-16s should not be viewed as a game-changing weapon in the war with Russia.” 

He pointed out, “One obvious issue is quantity. Ukraine has so far only received a handful of F-16s, with a total of 24 jets expected to arrive by the end of 2024. To put this number into context, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated in recent weeks that in order to effectively counter Russian air power, his country would require a fleet of 128 F-16 jets.” 

Moreover, he argued that the nascent fleet may have access to only a limited array of weapons, and the use of Western munitions against targets within Russia might be restricted, affecting the aircraft’s overall effectiveness.

The immediate impact of the F-16s will also be constrained by a shortage of trained pilots and the limited number of jets. 

The New York Times recently reported that as few as six F-16s might arrive by the summer, with around 20 Ukrainian pilots anticipated to be trained by the end of the year. Given that each F-16 requires at least two pilots, Ukraine may initially deploy only about 10 of these aircraft in combat.

General James B. Hecker, Commander of US Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa, has noted that while the Western-supplied F-16s will not provide instant air superiority over Russia’s formidable defenses, they will help Kyiv transition to a Western-style air force and facilitate the use of US munitions.

Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its efforts to neutralize Ukrainian air capabilities. Recent attacks on Ukrainian air bases suggest a strategic attempt to limit the effectiveness of the F-16s before they become fully operational. 

Russian Lieutenant General Aitech Bizhev (Retd) has indicated that the network of Ukrainian airfields has been severely disrupted, with up to 80% currently inoperative. Russian forces continue to monitor and strike these airfields to prevent their use for launching aircraft.

Bizhev explained that the extensive network of airfields needed for effective F-16 operations is currently compromised. The large-scale attacks on these airfields and the ongoing surveillance efforts make it challenging for NATO to conceal and protect the F-16s. 

Ukraine’s limited territory exacerbates the difficulty of hiding these aircraft from Russian intelligence. If detected, the F-16s are likely to be targeted by precision weapons before they can be effectively deployed.

Given these conditions, Ukraine is expected to exercise caution in deploying its new Western-made jets in direct engagements with Russian fighters. 

The potential loss of even a single F-16 could result in significant reputational damage for the West and a notable victory for Moscow. As a result, Kyiv is likely to carefully weigh the strategic value of these aircraft against the risks of their deployment.