Israel Strikes a Critical Blow Against Hamas’ Military Leadership

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After months of incremental progress in Gaza, Israel appears to have achieved its biggest military and intelligence feat of the war so far: the assassination of Hamas’ top commander, Mohammed Deif. Though it’s still awaiting official confirmation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) increasingly believes a Saturday airstrike in Khan Younis killed the elusive figure who has topped Israel’s target list for decades.

The likely death of Hamas’ military chief comes at an inflection point for Jerusalem. As some Israeli officials call on the government to reach a deal that allows for the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza and frees up soldiers to focus on the conflict with Hezbollah on the northern front, others see the Deif strike as an opening to deal a decisive blow against a weakened Hamas. Nine months of near-constant attacks by the IDF appears to finally have gained Israel leverage both at the negotiating table and on the ground in Gaza.

Deif—a key planner of the October 7 attack that initiated the war, longtime associate of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and mastermind behind numerous suicide bombings and kidnappings—has narrowly evaded multiple assassination attempts by Israel in the past. Yet the military is increasingly confident that it finally succeeded in Saturday’s operation, which targeted a compound used by Hamas brigade commander Rafa Salama.

The IDF on Sunday announced the “elimination” of Salama—itself an operational victory given his close ties to Sinwar and senior military rankwho Israeli intelligence determined prior to the strike had been with Deif in a building used by Hamas in southern Gaza. The terror group has denied reports of Deif’s death, but his chances of surviving the aerial attack—which used bunker buster bombs to target possible underground complexes—are slim. The military chief’s assassination would mark a major achievement in a war that in recent months has often been measured through incremental successes, as the IDF focuses on targeted assaults and operations to clear individual localities of Hamas fighters.

Since the start of the war, the IDF says it has eliminated or apprehended some 14,000 of Hamas’ fighters, including six brigade commanders and more than 20 battalion commanders. This leaves an estimated 16,000 on the battlefield in Gaza, but has nonetheless contributed to the breakdown of the military wing’s command and control capabilities. Its rocket arsenal has likewise been greatly reduced, as has its ability to rearm.

“When you see a brigade or battalion losing its command structure and losing the capability to operate as a cohesive unit, so they become small units fighting guerrilla warfare—that’s an important benchmark,” Assaf Orion, a defense strategist at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a retired brigadier general in the IDF, told The Dispatch.

“But the long-term test would be not only how much they lose, but how much and how fast they are able to regenerate and resurge. Young, angry men are not a commodity in short supply in Gaza,” Orion added. “Long-range rocketry is a little more rare. The ability to build them in factories is even more limited and has been greatly degraded.”

Key to preventing Hamas from rearming in the long-term is the IDF’s ongoing operation in the area of Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, which has uncovered the largest network of tunnels—including subterranean smuggling routes into Egypt—in the Strip. Behind the scenes, Israeli officials have sought Egypt’s cooperation in preventing the flow of weapons into Gaza from the Sinai Peninsula, including through the possible construction of underground barriers and sensors. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant alluded to “progress” with the Egyptians in a statement last week, but an IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor—an 8-mile stretch of land between Egypt and Gaza—without a firm agreement from Cairo to help choke off Hamas’ smuggling routes remains unlikely.

In Rafah and elsewhere, tunnels continue to pose one of the biggest challenges for the Israeli military, which struggles to locate and destroy a network measuring at least 350 miles without putting boots on the ground. Going into the booby-trapped and well-defended shafts presents a grave danger to IDF troops, though the summer heat and humidity and Israeli operations have reportedly forced more and more Hamas fighters to emerge from their underground hideouts.

“The biggest challenge of the IDF in Gaza is the tunnel complex. You cannot defeat Hamas militarily without destroying all these hundreds of kilometers of tunnels,” Yoni Ben-Menachem, an Israel-based Arab affairs expert, told The Dispatch. “And the estimation is that this is where Hamas is holding some of the hostages.”

Therein lies another obstacle for Israel’s military campaign: More than 130 hostages, living and dead, remain in Gaza. And for now, a deal that would free them in exchange for a pause in fighting remains just out of reach. As the Washington Post outlined last week, the framework for such an agreement is largely in place but the devil is in the details. Israel reportedly dispatched its negotiating team to continue the internationally mediated talks this week, despite possible fallout from Deif’s apparent assassination.

Under the current proposal’s guidelines, Israel would implement a six-week ceasefire in the first phase in exchange for Hamas’ freeing of 33 hostages—women and wounded men over 50. Once that process is completed, Phase 2 would entail a full IDF withdrawal from the Strip and the formation of security forces trained by the U.S., supported by moderate Arab countries, and staffed by Palestinian Authority affiliates in Gaza. But as with previous rounds of negotiations, Hamas remains reluctant to reach an agreement. CNN reported that a CIA assessment found growing tension between Hamas’ leadership in Qatar, which wants a deal, and Sinwar, who does not.

With prospects for a deal in limbo and Hamas depleted and exhausted, some Israeli officials argue that the IDF should focus on delivering a knockout punch to the terror group’s military capabilities. Military pressure makes reaching a hostage deal more likely, the argument goes, and defeating Hamas makes its successful implementation more feasible.

“The world is focused on seeking a ceasefire and stopping the war. Taking the longer view, I think it’s just as important to address the root causes that brought us October 7—the massive flow of arms into the Strip, the gushing flow of funds into the hands of Hamas, and the ongoing legitimacy that Hamas derives from holding the Strip and weaponizing human suffering,” Orion said. “We need to dry up the sources of legitimacy, funding, and arms to enable the emergence of a normal and responsible governing entity there.”

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The killing of a key Hamas military leader is important for Israel. But how important?

On Saturday, July 13, in a daring airstrike in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Younis, the Israel Defense Forces targeted Mohammed Deif, Hamas’s chief military strategist and the head of its armed forces, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade, along with Hamas's Khan Yunis Brigade commander, Rafa’a Salama. Hamas formally confirmed Salama’s death but said nothing about Deif’s fate. One Hamas official claimed that Deif survived. However, the response from Hamas militants on the ground suggests otherwise, and Israeli intelligence agencies reportedly assess with high probability that the strike either killed or severely injured Deif. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew indicated that there are signs Deif was indeed killed.

When any nation, especially Israel, considers carrying out a targeted strike against individuals involved in terrorism, referred to as "centers of knowledge," three operational intelligence conditions must be met: high-quality real-time intelligence, a window of opportunity, and an assessment that the overall achievement of the killing outweighs any potential diplomatic and legal implications from potential civilian casualties. During the current war, the fourth part of the equation for Israel also includes analyzing whether the terrorist is hiding among Israeli hostages. In this case, Israeli decision-makers believed all these conditions were met and thus launched the strike after a period of close surveillance.

Palestinians gather near damage, following what Palestinians say was an Israeli strike at a tent camp in Al-Mawasi area, amid Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip July 13, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem  TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Palestinians gather near damage, following what Palestinians say was an Israeli strike at a tent camp in Al-Mawasi area, amid Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip July 13, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Palestinian sources claim the attack killed over 100 people and injured about 300, arguing that most casualties were civilians and children. These figures have not been verified. Conversely, Israel contends that most casualties were Hamas operatives, including dozens of Deif's bodyguards.

Visual reports from Arab networks in Gaza, including journalists with close ties to Hamas, do not support Hamas's claims. Reports showed minimal civilian casualties and that most of the wounded were young men dressed in civilian clothing. Additionally, bodies arriving at hospitals from ambulances were wrapped in adult-sized bags, not the smaller ones that would be used if the casualties were children.

What does Deif's death mean for Hamas?

If Israel has indeed succeeded in eliminating Deif, the attack has already dealt a significant blow to Hamas on multiple fronts:

Symbolic impact: Deif has become a mythical figure among Palestinian and Islamic circles, where he is called "the living martyr." He’s lived through prior Israeli attempted strikes and has become, at some level, a romanticized hero of the armed resistance. Given that, Hamas may choose to keep Deif's fate shrouded in mystery.

Strategic loss: Deif is Hamas's top military commander and strategist and the mastermind behind its iron grip on Gaza, its attacks on Israel, and its current battle with the IDF. As the head of Hamas’s military operations, he meticulously planned the Oct. 7 attack on Israel and has coordinated and overseen Hamas’s high-level battle plans since the ensuing Israeli incursion. Deif is a crucial conduit of communication between Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar and Hamas's Politburo in Qatar, involved in hostage and ceasefire negotiations.

Operational impact: This latest strike adds to a series of targeted killings of Hamas commanders and senior members, highlighting deepening Israeli intelligence penetration and presenting an increasing and growing challenge for Hamas. Following the latest attack, reports indicate that Hamas is aggressively conducting an internal investigation, hoping to uncover a suspected deep Israeli intelligence penetration. This breach is believed to have provided the critical information confirming Deif's presence at the compound and ensuring he was not using Israeli captives taken on Oct. 7 as human shields.

Regional criticism: The proximity of the compound that Deif and Salama were hiding in, to the refugee tent city at Al-Mawasi, has drawn criticism from the Palestinian Authority and Arab leaders around the region. Arab leaders and ordinary citizens in the Arab world are increasingly frustrated with Hamas and its leaders for using civilians in Gaza as their human shields.

Is eliminating Hamas altogether possible?

While some Israeli politicians might simplify one of the primary goals of the Israeli response to Hamas's war as "eliminating Hamas," this is an unrealistic objective. The achievable goal is to severely eliminate Hamas's ability to operate and to curb its — and Iran's — radical agenda. Achieving this requires dismantling Hamas's military infrastructure and, simultaneously, working with major Arab countries and the United States to create a regional coalition that establishes the conditions to end Hamas's governance in Gaza.

Avi Melamed
Avi Melamed

However, it is important to emphasize that the strike on Deif will not critically affect Hamas's military operations. Hamas currently operates under a distributed guerrilla model rather than the structured military framework they used before the war. This decentralized approach ensures that the loss of a single leader, even one as influential as Deif, does not paralyze their combat capabilities.

This strike is also unlikely to lead to a breakdown in the negotiation process between Israel and Hamas. The ongoing conflict and negotiation dynamics are complex and multifaceted, and while this strike is significant, it will not derail either side's broader strategic and tactical maneuvers. However, due to Deif’s role as a critical conduit between Sinwar and Hamas’s politburo abroad, his replacement is already being discussed both in Gaza and abroad.

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Israeli delegation arrives in Cairo for Gaza cease-fire talks

Relatives and friends of Israeli soldiers who were killed and of those who were kidnapped during the Oct. 7 Hamas cross-border attack take part in a march in southern Israel, Wednesday, July 17, 2024, demanding the creation of a committee of inquiry to investigate the events on that day. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

An Israeli delegation has arrived in Egypt to press ahead with cease-fire talks, as Israel and Hamas consider the latest proposal. That’s according to three Egyptian airport officials who did not provide further details. International mediators are pushing Israel and Hamas toward a phased deal that would halt the fighting and free about 120 hostages held by the militant group in Gaza.

Talks between the sides were rattled over the weekend when Israel said it targeted Hamas’ military commander in a massive strike. His status remains unclear.

Hamas' Oct. 7 attack sparked the war when militants stormed into southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people — mostly civilians — and abducting about 250. Since then, Israeli ground offensives and bombardments have killed more than 38,600 people in Gaza, according to the territory’s Health Ministry. It does not distinguish between combatants and civilians in its count.

Two international courts have accused Israel of war crimes and genocide – charges Israel denies. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are crammed into squalid tent camps in central and southern Gaza. Israeli restrictions, fighting and the breakdown of law and order have limited humanitarian aid efforts, causing widespread hunger and sparking fears of famine.

Here’s the latest:

UN says comments by a spokesman in Netanyahu’s office about UN official are ‘reprehensible’

UNITED NATIONS – The United Nations says comments by a spokesman in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office about the head of the U.N. agency helping Palestinian refugees are “reprehensible” and threatening.

U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric was responding Wednesday to comments made by spokesman David Mencer who called Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the a gency known as UNRWA, “one of the bad guys, a terrorist sympathizer, a Jew-killing enabler, a liar.”

Mencer issued the denunciations of Lazzarini Tuesday after saying that Israeli forces have retrieved “millions of documents and captured enemy material” exposing the involvement of UNRWA employees in Hamas’ attacks on Oct. 7 in southern Israel.

He said the documents also showed “the deep and systemic infiltration by those terror organizations, Hamas, but also Palestinian Islamic Jihad into the ranks of UNRWA.”

The U.N.’s internal watchdog is currently investigating allegations against 14 of the 19 UNRWA staffers who Israel claims were involved in the Oct. 7 attacks. It closed one case because Israel provided no evidence and suspended four others because of a lack of sufficient evidence.

The U.N.’s Dujarric said “there have not been a million documents handed over to the secretary-general,” Antonio Guterres, and a letter sent to him with about a hundred names was immediately sent to the Office of Internal Oversight Services, the watchdog known as OIOS.

UNRWA has 32,000 staff in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and the Palestinian territories, including 13,000 in Gaza who provide education, health care, food and other services to several million Palestinians and their families. UNRWA facilities in Gaza, where thousands of Palestinians have sought shelter, have been repeatedly attacked.

Mencer’s “inflammatory language” to describe Lazzarini “in an environment that’s already extremely volatile is reprehensible and downright dangerous because it puts at risk senior U.N. officials whose only focus is on helping civilians in Gaza and to alleviate their suffering,” Dujarric said.

The U.N. spokesman stressed that it was UNRWA that first announced the list of staff potentially involved in the Oct. 7 attacks, which Lazzarini has repeatedly denounced.

At the UN, Russia's top diplomat says Hezbollah, Iran and Lebanon don't want a war with Israel

UNITED NATIONS – Russia’s top diplomat says the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, its main backer Iran, and Lebanon’s government do not want “a full-blown war – and there’s a suspicion that some circles in Israel are trying to achieve just that.”

Sergey Lavrov told a U.N. news conference Wednesday that Russia is doing “everything possible to calm tensions.” He expressed hope that Western nations make every effort to ensure Israel won’t act on what he says U.S. and European analysts are calling Israel’s “provocative mindsets.”

Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire almost every day since the Israel-Hamas war began in Gaza last October. The U.S. and the international community have been lobbying for calm, and are hopeful a diplomatic solution will prevent the fighting from spiraling into a wider Middle East war.

Should war break out, Israel would face a much more formidable foe in Lebanon than in Gaza. Hezbollah is the Arab world’s most significant paramilitary force with a robust internal structure as well as a sizeable arsenal. Israel sees the group as its most direct threat.

Lavrov said Iran’s previous government and new president “reflect a very responsible position that Iran is not interested in escalation.”

Without offering names, Lavrov said U.S. and European analysts say “escalation, as the practical developments show, is something which Israel is interested in.”

“Hezbollah has been very much restrained in its actions,” Lavrov asserted, and its leader Hassan Nasrallah “delivered a number of public statements which reaffirmed that position.”

“However, the sentiment is that there’s an attempt to provoke them, and to provoke them into a full-blown engagement,” he said.

Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed over 450 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also more than 80 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 21 soldiers and 13 civilians have been killed since the war in Gaza began.

US military pier for carrying aid to Gaza will be dismantled after weather and security problems

WASHINGTON — The U.S. military-built pier to carry humanitarian aid to Gaza will be dismantled and brought home, ending a mission that has been fraught with repeated weather and security problems that limited how much food and other supplies could get to starving Palestinians.

Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, deputy commander at U.S. Central Command, told reporters in a Pentagon briefing on Wednesday that the pier achieved its intended effect in what he called an “unprecedented operation.”

As the U.S. military steps away from the sea route for humanitarian aid, questions swirl about Israel’s new plan to use the port at Ashdod as a substitute.

There are few details on how it will work and lingering concerns about whether aid groups will have enough viable land crossings to get assistance into the territory besieged by war between Israel and Hamas. Israel controls all of Gaza's land border crossings.

Planned as a temporary fix to get aid to starving Palestinians, the pier project was criticized from the start by aid groups that condemned it as a waste of time and money. While U.S. defense officials acknowledged that the weather was worse than expected and limited the days the pier could operate, they also expressed frustration with humanitarian groups for being unable and unwilling to distribute the aid that got through the system, only to have it pile up onshore.

A critical element that neither the aid groups nor the U.S. military could control, however, was the Israeli defense forces whose military operation into Gaza put humanitarian workers in persistent danger and in a number of cases cost them their lives.

As a result, the pier operated for fewer than 25 days after its installation May 16, and aid agencies used it only about half that time due to security concerns.

US imposes a travel ban on a former Israeli solder convicted of 2016 ‘extrajudicial killing’ of a wounded Palestinian

WASHINGTON — A former Israeli soldier convicted of fatally shooting a wounded Palestinian man in the head in 2016 has been banned from entering the United States.

The visa restrictions on Elor Azaria and his immediate family are intended “to promote accountability for gross violations of human rights” in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Wednesday, calling the shooting an “extrajudicial killing.”

The travel ban is the latest step by the U.S. — Israel’s top ally — against Israelis, West Bank Jewish settlers or groups it deems have undermined peace and stability in the West Bank by encouraging or participating in violence against Palestinian civilians.

Azaria, an army medic, served two-thirds of his 14-month sentence for manslaughter. He was caught on video by a human rights worker fatally shooting Abdel Fattah al-Sharif, who was lying wounded on the ground, unarmed and virtually motionless, after stabbing a soldier in the West Bank.

Azaria’s sanctioning is unusual because of his high-profile trial by an Israeli military court. He has mostly remained out of the public eye since his release in 2018.

Critics say Israel rarely punishes soldiers for alleged crimes against Palestinians, pointing to the low rate of indictments. Israel says it holds soldiers to account on merit through independent and professional investigations.

In a country where military service is mandatory, Azaria's case sharply divided Israelis. The military pushed for his prosecution, saying he violated its code of ethics. Many Israelis, particularly on the nationalist right, defended his actions.

Israeli delegation arrives in Cairo to continue cease-fire talks

CAIRO__ An Israeli delegation arrived in Egypt on Wednesday to continue cease-fire talks as Israel and Hamas consider the latest proposal, three Egyptian airport officials said.

International mediators continue to push Israel and Hamas toward a phased deal that would halt the fighting and free about 120 hostages held by the militant group in Gaza.

The Israeli delegation includes six officials, the airport officials said without disclosing identities. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the arrival with the media.

Talks between the sides were rattled over the weekend when Israel said it targeted Hamas’ military commander in a massive strike. His status remains unclear. Hamas has said the talks continue.

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has told U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin that such heavy pressure on Hamas had “led to the conditions necessary to achieve an agreement for the return of the hostages.” He gave no further details in a statement from his office.

— Jack Jeffery in Jerusalem

Israel releases 13 Palestinians after detaining them for weeks

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip — Israeli authorities released 13 Palestinians who had been detained for weeks, the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said Wednesday.

The Palestinian paramedic group said they were taken from an Israeli checkpoint in the Gaza Strip to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in the central city of Deir al-Balah. Some wept when they were reunited with their relatives. Others showed signs of bruising to journalists.

One of those released, Zakaria Abu al-Eish, said he was caring for his ill father in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza when Israeli forces stormed their home and detained him.

“For 55 days, I was handcuffed, blindfolded, deprived from sleeping, no rest, even food they brought us was for animals,” al-Eish told The Associated Press. “If you eat or not, no one cares. They dealt with us as non-humans.”

Israel has detained some 4,000 Palestinians since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that sparked the war, according to official figures. About 1,500 were released after the military determined they were not affiliated with Hamas.

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