• Denmark says Ukraine can use the F-16s it plans to give to hit military targets in Russia.

• Experts say that may not the best use for the jets.

• Ukraine hasn't been promised many, making each one a valuable prize for Russia.

NATO member Denmark has given Ukraine permission to use the F-16s it receives to hit military targets within Russia.

It is unclear if Ukraine has any intention of using its F-16s in this way, or if doing so would mean the jets themselves enter Russia or just their munitions, but military experts told Business Insider it may not be the best use for them regardless, at least right now.

Denmark's decision is part of a wider and influential shift in NATO oversight of the weapons sent to Ukraine, a loosening of the restrictions on how Ukraine is allowed to fight the war.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, partner nations have prevented Ukraine from hitting military targets within Russia, giving Moscow a safe space to stage attacks and putting Ukraine at a huge disadvantage. Over the course of the war, many attacks have been launched from inside Russian territory. Analysts have described this situation as Ukraine fighting a war with one hand tied behind its back.

But some of Ukraine's international partners have been changing their approach over the past few weeks. And now Denmark is the first country to give the go-ahead for the coming F-16s. Just because it can, though, doesn't mean it should.

A big danger

Ukraine is expected to get its first F-16s this summer. George Barros, a Russian military expert at the US-based Institute for the Study of War think tank, said "it doesn't make a lot of military sense" to use the American-made fighter jets to "strike into Russia at this time."

"Because the deeper you go into Russia and the closer you get to the border, the more dangerous it is for you to fly," and it's more likely that you lose high-end equipment and trained pilots not easily replaced, he said.

Barros said that in the future, particularly with more jets, that would be a great use for them, "but that's not where we are now."

Ukraine's ability to use other weapons to hit Russia is a big boost for Ukraine, but it's not necessarily the best thing for a fairly small fleet of F-16s.

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a defense strategy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that he suspects "that the F-16s will stay back from the front lines to avoid the Russian air defense envelope."

F-16s, when armed with anti-radiation missiles like the AGM-88 HARM missiles provided by the US, can be used to target air defenses in suppression and destruction missions, but those can be challenging, high-risk operations.

F-16s are big targets

Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK's Royal Aeronautical Society, said the F-16s could be useful for hitting targets that are in Russia but out of range for other weapons. The aircraft has that capability, but striking into Russia is a risky mission, particularly for a fourth-generation aircraft that first flew in 1974.

He suspects that Ukraine, having "finally got them," will want to ensure "they don't lose them straight away."

Ukraine has been fighting hard to get F-16s since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, but the US prohibited other countries operating the jet from sending them to Ukraine until it changed its mind in May 2023.

Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and a former Royal Australian Air Force officer, said that Ukraine will want to keep its aircraft "safe."

Ukraine will have to be more cautious with its F-16s, as it is not getting a lot, experts say.

The exact number of F-16s Ukraine will get to begin with is unclear, but it's not expected to be many. Ukraine has been promised a total of an estimated 85 jets by Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium. And France is sending an unspecified number of its Mirage 2000-5 fighters. This is a boost, but Ukraine can't afford to suffer tremendous losses.

A problem is that Ukraine is expected to receive more F-16s than it has trained pilots. A lack of available training spots in Arizona, Denmark, and Romania means that only around 20 Ukrainian F-16 pilots will be trained this year, Politico reported, thus limiting the number of jets Ukraine can fly into battle.

The number of warplanes aside, there's also a political aspect to Ukraine needing to keep its jets in the air.

Professor Michael Clark, a Russia and Ukraine expert and a British national security advisor, said Ukraine has been managing expectations over how effective the aircraft will be. Ukraine has suggested that the aircraft will be extremely useful against Russia, but there is a risk of backlash over losses or failure to secure a major breakthrough.

He said that while analysts "know that warfare is full of setbacks and things that don't go right first time and so on," a "manifest failure of an F-16 offensive would be politically very damaging for the Ukrainians," especially among some US Republicans and groups that are reluctant to back Ukraine.

As a result, Clark said, the Ukrainians are likely thinking that for its F-16s, "it'd be better to hold them back until they can be more confident rather than throw them in quickly, hoping that they'll be okay, because the chances are they won't."

Cancian said losing F-16s, particularly with so few promised to Ukraine, would be seen as "a big deal."

He said some expectations put on Ukraine's F-16s are unfair. US air strength, for instance, can come from the employment of "hundreds of aircraft with extensive support systems on the ground," the air fleet and ground infrastructure that Ukraine's embattled air forces lack.

Avoiding Russia

The experts said that the jets likely won't go into Russia because of the dangers there. If they do, it would like be rare. Even flying over Russian-occupied territory is dangerous.

Cancian said there may be "one or two deep raids maybe over Crimea just for the symbolic and psychological effect, but as a routine use, no, it's just too dangerous."

Notably, though, Ukraine has been increasingly targeting air defense systems on the occupied peninsula and elsewhere.

ISW suspects "Ukrainian forces may be conducting an organized effort to degrade Russian air defenses, which could enable Ukraine to more effectively leverage manned fixed-wing airpower (namely using F-16 fighter jets) in the long term."

And Ukraine has demonstrated a willingness to make bold plays.

Layton acknowledged Ukraine might attempt something daring, noting that they have conducted some other risky moves that have given them big wins, like taking down Russian aircraft.

"Tactically, they are very smart," he said. "So while I think they wouldn't do it, if they did it, it would be very carefully organized and fairly quick." But in general, he said, going into Russia "makes them far too vulnerable."

"I personally think that the Ukrainians will be foolish to put their aircraft in quite small numbers across the border because I think that the Russians will outnumber them," he said.

Robinson noted Russia has a "massive air defense network" that would target the jets, which lack stealth characteristics like fifth-gen jets. Ukraine has a network like this too, and it's why Russian jets have barely entered Ukrainian-held airspace. But in Russia, Ukrainian aircraft can also expect to battle the Russian Air Force in addition to enemy air defenses.

"The problem is that there's not going to be very many F-16s, and they will be very vulnerable as they fly over Russian territory," Mark Cancian said.

F-16s may hang back

Instead, Cancian said, he expects them to be used mostly defensively — used away from the front, protecting cities and infrastructure from Russia's drones and missiles. The F-16 can play defense well and has been prominent in the post-9/11 Noble Eagle mission defending US and Canadian airspace.

He said F-16s "aren't going to be flying over the front lines, but they don't really need that," as other weapons can hit into Russia and defend the front lines.

Layton agreed the best use for Ukraine's first F-16s would be defensive, staying in Ukrainian territory in an air-defense role to shoot down Russia's drones and cruise missiles.

But he was more bullish on Ukraine hitting targets in Russia, saying that it could do it without flying the aircraft into Russia, as he suspects that Ukraine will likely get the right intelligence to do such a hit without taking too much risk.

A key aspect of what kind of missions the F-16 can fly is what kind of missiles and bombs the jet is carrying. Ukraine does not currently have the full range of capabilities.

Ukraine's pilots could, however, be able to master defensive action the fastest, and it would likely be the most effective thing Ukraine could do without a greater number of aircraft, the experts said. It would also bolster a capability that has been heavily strained by relentless Russian attacks, and that's air defense.

Experts said they don't expect the F-16s to make a massive difference in the war by themselves, particularly without more of them. But they said these fighter jets will be useful for Ukraine by replenishing lost aircraft, deterring Russian jets, and acting as defenses.

"Whenever they arrive," Cancian said, "that's a good time for Ukraine because they will add to Ukraine's military capability."

Robinson said the F-16s will "make Russian pilots there a little bit more kind of wary, a little bit more careful about what they're going up against."

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F-16 fighter jets expected on the battlefield this summer as Putin lands in Vietnam

F-16 fighter jets are expected to be on the battlefield in Ukraine by this summer, a Dutch air force commander has said.

Gen Arnoud Stallmann, speaking in front of two disused F-16s in a military hangar in the Netherlands, said that after a series of delays, everything was “lining up” to see the US-made jets in Kyiv’s hands by this summer.

The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Norway have pledged around 80 F-16s to Ukraine between them. Kyiv has long called for the fighter jets, seeing them as vital to countering threats such as Russia’s recent use of deadly glide bombs, capable of levelling whole buildings.

It comes as Russian leader Vladimir Putin has arrived in Vietnam on the second-leg of his overseas tour, having visited North Korea yesterday.

Putin is scheduled to meet Vietnam’s most powerful politician, the communist party’s general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, the new president To Lam and other officials, in the capital of Hanoi later today.

The Russian president’s last visit to Vietnam was in 2017. The pair have had diplomatic relations since 1950.

Key points

• New Russian-North Korean pact includes mutual defence clause, says Vladimir Putin

• Ukraine will finally use F-16 jets this summer, says Dutch commander

• Photos: Putin and Kim Jong-un’s friendship during latest North Korea visit

• Putin insists new military pact with North Korea is peaceful

• Red carpet, warm hugs, Aurus Limousine: Putin’s welcome in North Korea

Zelensky lists measures to preserve Ukraine’s energy system

05:25 , Arpan Rai

Volodymyr Zelensky announced a set of measures to protect Ukraine’s energy system, including protection for plants coming under Russian fire and the development of alternative renewable energy sources.

“Life in Ukraine must be preserved and that includes in particular energy security,” the Ukrainian president said in his nightly video address.

Mr Zelensky outlined plans to minimise the effects of such attacks, including a programme of developing solar energy and energy storage facilities and a schedule for critical infrastructure sites to come up with alternative energy sources.

The work, he said, must be completed before winter and the increased energy demand associated with the change in seasons.

Mr Zelensky said the government would “continue to work on creating new energy generation and new decentralised energy capacities”. Also planned was “the construction of new balanced and manoeuvrable capacities for energy”.

“This process is quite challenging in wartime conditions, but we must implement it just as we have already implemented many difficulty projects,” he said.

And work was proceeding, Mr Zelensky said, on measures to protect existing energy sites.

Russia pounded Ukraine’s energy system in the first winter of the war, launched in February 2022, and renewed its assault on energy targets last March as Ukraine was running low on stocks of Western air defence missiles.

Drone and missile strikes have knocked out half of energy generating capacity since March, according to official accounts.

Attacks yesterday overnight hit four regions and cut power to more than 218,000 consumers, the Energy Ministry said.

South Korea says it could supply arms to Ukraine after Russia signs ‘absurd’ deal with North Korea

05:00 , Alexander Butler

US says Putin remarks about possible weapons for North Korea ‘incredibly concerning’

04:59 , Arpan Rai

Vladimir Putin’s remarks that Russia may supply weapons for North Korea after signing a defence pact with Pyongyang are “incredibly concerning,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

Putin suggested after a visit to North Korea this week that such weapons supplies to the isolated nuclear-armed country would be a mirror response to the Western arming of Ukraine.

He also warned that US ally South Korea would be making “a big mistake” if it decided to supply arms to Ukraine, and that Moscow would respond to such a move in a way that would be painful for Seoul.

“It is incredibly concerning,” Miller told a news briefing when asked about Putin’s remarks about possible arms supplies to North Korea.

“It would destabilise the Korean Peninsula, of course, and potentially... depending on the type of weapons they provide, might violate UN Security Council resolutions that Russia itself has supported.”

The treaty signed by Putin and Kim on Wednesday commits each side to provide immediate military assistance to the other in the event of armed aggression against either one of them.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby called it a cause of concern but no surprise. He said Russia’s need for such foreign assistance was a sign of desperation.

“We’ve been talking about this and warning about a burgeoning defence relationship between these two countries now for many months through a series of downgraded intelligence that we’ve put out there,” he said.

“Obviously it’s something we’ve taken seriously.”

Kirby said the US also believed the Russia-North Korea pact would also be a concern to China, which the United States has urged to do more to reign in Pyongyang.

US to rush air defence interceptor missiles to Ukraine

04:33 , Arpan Rai

The White House will rush delivery of air defence interceptor missiles to Ukraine by redirecting planned shipments to other allied nations, as Washington scrambles to counter increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

National security spokesperson John Kirby said the US had taken the “difficult but necessary decision to reprioritise near-term planned deliveries of foreign military sales to other countries,” though he wouldn’t say which nations would be affected or how many.

“Right now, we know that Ukraine urgently needs these additional capabilities,” Mr Kirby said on a call with reporters, adding, “Obviously more is needed, and it’s needed now.”

The announcement comes after president Joe Biden, during last week’s Group of Seven meeting in Italy, suggested such action might be necessary, saying, “We’ve let it be known for those countries that are expecting, from us, air defence systems in the future, that they’re going to have to wait.”

“Everything we have is going to go to Ukraine until their needs are met,” Biden said. “And then we will make good on the commitments we made to other countries.”

Ukrainian author and soldier warns the West: ‘War is coming to you’

04:10 , Arpan Rai

A junkyard of burnt cars. Shattered glass and shell fragments. Bodies lining the streets.

This is Oleksandr Mykhed’s language of war. This is the language of Ukrainians. This is, he says, what we should be ready for: “Because this might happen in your country, and you’d better be prepared for that.”

Mykhed – one of Ukraine’s most prolific authors – is in London promoting his tenth book, The Language of War. His once floppy blonde hair is gone, shaved into a military-style buzz cut instead; it is a nod to his second job, the one he did not choose.

Mykhed, 36, enlisted in the military as soon as the full-scale invasion began. Though he had no previous experience, he was told he would be a mortar battery ammunition man. “You will pass grenades to the loader, carry a box of grenades and the mortar itself,” the enlistment officer said to him, after he asked what he meant by “mortar man”.

Tom Watling speaks to him:

US will move Ukraine to front of line for air defense missile deliveries, White House says

04:00 , Alexander Butler

‘Mass’ drone attack in Russia’s Krasnodar region

03:59 , Arpan Rai

Ukraine’s military launched a “mass” drone attack on southern Russia’s Krasnodar region, but there were no casualties or damage, local Russian officials said this morning.

As a result of the attack, three municipalities came under attack, emergency officials said. Fragments from one drone fell on a guest house in Temriuk district, but its residents were evacuated and there were no injuries.

Emergency crews were working at the sites of the attacks.

Russia hammers Ukraine's power grid again and Kyiv's drones target enemy oil depots

03:41 , Arpan Rai

Russia resumed its aerial pounding of Ukraine’s power grid and Kyiv’s forces again targeted Russian oil facilities with cross-border drone strikes, officials said yesterday.

In its seventh major attack on Ukrainian power plants since Moscow intensified energy infrastructure attacks three months ago, Russia fired nine missiles and 27 Shahed drones at energy facilities and critical infrastructure in central and eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian air force said.

The attack hit power structures in the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions of Ukraine, according to national power company Ukrenergo.

Air defences intercepted all the drones and five cruise missiles, the Ukrainian air force said.

With no major changes reported along the 1,000km (600 mile) frontline, where a recent push by the Kremlin’s forces in eastern and northeastern Ukraine has made only incremental gains, both sides in the war have taken aim at distant infrastructure targets.

A Ukrainian author turned soldier has a stark warning for the West: ‘Be prepared for war with Russia’

03:00 , Alexander Butler

Ajunkyard of burned cars. Shattered glass and shell fragments. Bodies lining the streets.

This is Oleksandr Mykhed’s language of war. This is the language of Ukrainians. This is, he says, what we should be ready for: “Because this might happen in your country, and you’d better be prepared for that.”

Mykhed – one of Ukraine’s most prolific authors – is in London promoting his tenth book, The Language of War. His once floppy blonde hair is gone, shaved into a military-style buzz cut instead; it is a nod to his second job, the one he did not choose.

US to reprioritise missiles for Ukraine, White House says

02:00 , Alexander Butler

The US will reprioritise planned deliveries of foreign military sales of Patriot and other missiles to go to Ukraine, which is in “desperate need” of more air defense capabilities amid its ongoing war with Russia, the White House said.

Putin says South Korea would be making ‘a big mistake’ if it supplies arms to Ukraine

01:00 , Alexander Butler

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that South Korea would be making “a big mistake” if it decides to supply arms to Ukraine and that Seoul had nothing to worry about when it came to a mutual defence pact between Moscow and North Korea.

Putin, who said Moscow would respond to any such move by South Korea, was speaking to reporters in Vietnam at the end of a two-day trip to Asia. He held talks in North Korea a day earlier.

Yonhap news reported earlier on Thursday that South Korea would review the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine, after the leaders of North Korea and Russia signed a pact pledging mutual defence in the event of war.

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte wins race to head Nato

Friday 21 June 2024 00:01 , Alexander Butler

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte is set to become the next Nato chief after his only rival dropped out of the leadership race.

Mr Rutte will become the secretary-general of the alliance in October after Romanian president Klaus Iohannis withdrew from the contest.

The 57-year-old has been one of the driving forces behind Europe’s military support for Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, and says defeat on the battlefield for Moscow is vital to secure peace in Europe.

He will replace Norway’s former prime minister Jens Stoltenberg, who has run the US-led military alliance since 2014 and had his term extended four times.

What's known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea

Thursday 20 June 2024 23:00 , Alexander Butler

Pictured: Ukrainian solider launches reconnaissance drone

Thursday 20 June 2024 22:00 , Alexander Butler

Zelenkyy thanks Romania for 'bolstering air shield'

Thursday 20 June 2024 21:00 , Alexander Butler

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Romania’s decision to provide his country with two Patriot air defence systems will strengthen security in Ukraine and throughout Europe.

“This crucial contribution will bolster our air shield and help us better protect our people and critical infrastructure from Russian air terror,” the Ukrainian president said on X.

The Patriot, which stands for Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercept on Target, is a surface-to-air missile defence system.

The Putin-Kim bromance is a dangerous liaison

Thursday 20 June 2024 20:00 , Alexander Butler

Russian interference in UK general election will likely ramp up dramatically, warns senior US senator

Thursday 20 June 2024 19:00 , Alexander Butler

Russian interference in the UK general election will likely “ramp up dramatically” over the next fortnight, the chair of the United States senate intelligence committee has warned.

Washington has witnessed “egregious efforts” by Moscow to interfere in the democratic process across the globe, similar to those alleged in the 2016 US presidential election, said Mark Warner.

The senior senator, who is regularly briefed on secret US intelligence, said he had been closely monitoring the situation in the UK, adding: “I think the next big test of the state of play will be the British elections in a few weeks.”

Russia hammers Ukraine's power grid again and Kyiv's drones target enemy oil depots

Thursday 20 June 2024 18:00 , Alexander Butler

Russia resumed its aerial pounding of Ukraine’s power grid and Kyiv’s forces again targeted Russian oil facilities with cross-border drone strikes, officials said Thursday.

With no major changes reported along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line, where a recent push by the Kremlin’s forces in eastern and northeastern Ukraine has made only incremental gains, both sides in the war have taken aim at distant infrastructure targets.

In its seventh major attack on Ukrainian power plants since Moscow intensified energy infrastructure attacks three months ago, Russia fired nine missiles and 27 Shahed drones at energy facilities and critical infrastructure in central and eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian air force said. Air defenses intercepted all the drones and five cruise missiles, it said.

South Korea says it could supply arms to Ukraine after Russia signs ‘absurd’ deal with North Korea

Thursday 20 June 2024 17:00 , Alexander Butler

South Korea has strongly criticised North Korea and Russia’s new military pact, and said it will reconsider supplying Ukraine with weapons in response.

The comments from South Korea’s presidential office came a day after North Korea and Russia reached a mutual agreement on defence assistance, including in the event of war, on Wednesday. The deal was signed after Vladimir Putin met his “comrade” Kim Jong-un on a visit to Pyongyang.

North Korea’s state media published the text of the deal on Thursday, which says each country would provide the other with immediate military assistance if it were to be invaded.

Russian glide bombs are obliterating front-line Ukraine towns

Thursday 20 June 2024 16:00 , Alexander Butler

Russia has accelerated its destruction of Ukraine’s front-line cities in 2024 to a scale previously unseen in the war using glide bombs and an expanding network of airstrips.

That’s according to analysis of drone footage, satellite imagery, Ukrainian documents and Russian photos.

The results can be seen in the intensity of recent Russian attacks. It took a year for Russia to obliterate Bakhmut, where the bombs were first used.

Romania to donate Patriot systems to Ukraine

Thursday 20 June 2024 15:16 , Alexander Butler

Romania will donate two operational Patriot systems to Ukraine, the country’s supreme defence council has announced.

The council said the decision was “based on an in-depth technical evaluation” and “all measures were being taken to eliminate the risk of creating possible vulnerabilities for Romania”.

In a statement, it reiterated that Romania’s position will continue to be that Ukraine has a “legitimate right” to defend itself against Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

Russian attack kills three, injures four in Ukraine's eastern region

Thursday 20 June 2024 15:00 , Tom Watling

Russia attacked a village in Ukraine‘s eastern Donetsk region on Thursday, killing three people and injuring four more, including a child, prosecutors said.

The village of Rozkishne, about 25 km from the front line, was targeted by the strike, regional prosecutors said on Telegram.

According to preliminary data, Russian troops used the Smerch system to launch cluster munitions, prosecutors said.

Among the injured was a 14-year-old boy who was hospitalised. Four households, cars, and a gas pipeline were damaged in the attack, prosecutors added.

Footage appears to show Russia firing first 3000kg glide bomb

Thursday 20 June 2024 14:39 , Tom Watling

Footage has purported to show Russia firing its first 3000kg glide bomb near Ukraine’s second largest city.

The video, posted by a Russian military blogger called Fighterbomber, believed to be a member of the Russian air force, shows the bomb exploding on the outskirts of the village of Lyptsi, where Ukrainian soldiers are defending against a recently-launched attack in the wider Kharkiv region. The city’s namesake capital, just 17 miles south of the village, is home to some 1.3 million civilians.

Russian glide bombs, essentially Soviet-era explosives retrofitted with wings and navigation systems, have proved devastating in Ukraine.

In March, then defence minister Sergei Shoigu toured a weapons factory east of Moscow where he was shown the Fab-3000s in early production.

South Korea says it could supply arms to Ukraine after Russia signs ‘absurd’ deal with North Korea

Thursday 20 June 2024 14:14 , Tom Watling

Zelensky thanks Romania for donating Patriot system to Ukraine

Thursday 20 June 2024 13:53 , Tom Watling

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Romania’s decision to provide his country with a Patriot air defence system would bolster Ukraine‘s air defence shield and strengthen security throughout Europe.

“This crucial contribution will bolster our air shield and help us better protect our people and critical infrastructure from Russian air terror,” he said on X.

Trial of US ballerina accused of treason begins in Russia

Thursday 20 June 2024 13:30 , Tom Watling

The trial of US ballerina Ksenia Karelina, 33, who was accused of high treason after sending a meagre $51.80 to a Ukrainian charity, has begun in western Russia today.

The 33-year-old, originally from Yekateri