Ukraine cannot survive without Western support -

While politicians in Britain pontificate, a thousand miles away, outside the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s war with Russia is intensifying. Kyiv has been forced to redirect thousands of troops to the north-eastern part of the front line to fend off Putin’s assault, leaving its defences exposed elsewhere.

The war is reaching a critical juncture, as yet again Western interest in aiding Ukraine is at risk of waning. President Zelensky appears to be aware that Ukraine’s time is running out: over the weekend, he called on US president Joe Biden and Chinese premier Xi Jinping to attend the upcoming Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland to advance a “real peace”.

Last week, Reuters reported that Russian sources were claiming that Putin himself was prepared to entertain the notion of a ceasefire. “Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war,” one said. Asked about these claims, Putin called for negotiations to resume as long as they were based on “realities on the ground”. In other words, Putin would be happy to stop the war as long as he got to keep the territory he has occupied.

This chipper mood shouldn’t surprise us. Putin knows that, for now, he holds the advantage. Circumventing sanctions and strengthening ties with the likes of China, Iran and North Korea has allowed him to pivot his economy on to a war footing. While the Ukrainian army is forced to wait for Western aid and weapons to trickle in, Russia is catching up in its ability to produce ammunition that matches Ukraine’s Western technology in quality and far outstrips it in quantity.

Indeed, the delay in passing the £60 billion US aid package for Kyiv is surely in part to thank for the difficulty Ukraine has had in throwing off Russia’s advance on Kharkiv. Putin’s generals saw weakness and took their chance.

While Ukraine will soon see fresh recruits to the armed forces, thanks to new legislation passed last month expanding the age of conscription, meanwhile, the disparity in mass is beginning to tell. Russia’s population is approximately three and a half times the size of Ukraine’s and Putin certainly has no qualms about sending young men into the meat grinder. The harsh reality is that Ukraine risks simply running out of men to fight.

Zelensky’s team appear concerned that, as attention on both sides of the Atlantic turns to domestic elections and leaders are forced to pick between foreign and domestic priorities, Ukraine’s fight against Putin will fall by the wayside. He has good reason to think so. Despite Zelensky’s appeals, it appears that Biden is likely to skip his planned peace summit, apparently preferring to attend a fundraiser in California with celebrities including George Clooney and Julia Roberts.

Speaking yesterday, Zelensky condemned Biden’s reported plan to skip it, saying “[His] absence would only be met with applause by Putin.” But while these words would once have held weight, they now look likely to be shrugged off.

As Putin consolidates his strength and the West loses interest, it looks increasingly that Ukraine has just a few months of resistance left. While the general election here rumbles on, we should not forget the war in the East. A Russian victory in Ukraine would rewrite the map of Europe and present the continent with a threat not seen for more than 80 years. We must not forget this.

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Ukraine to receive F-16s 'very soon' but much aid arriving late, defence minister says

Ukraine's Defence Minister Umerov speaks during an interview in Kyiv

Ukraine will receive its first supplies of F-16 fighter jets "very soon", but around half of its desperately needed foreign military aid is arriving late, Kyiv's defence minister has said.

Rustem Umerov, 42, told Reuters in an interview in Kyiv late on Monday that Russia was deploying more manpower and equipment to the front, more than 27 months after its full-scale invasion.

Kyiv's forces have managed to stabilise the new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region where Russia attacked earlier this month. But Umerov said Moscow was preparing for a new push.

"Their objective is to open a new front in the north to start using all their manpower, firing power, against us, they are continuing with their objective to destroy the nation," he said.

"We are withstanding, but of course we need more weapons, we need more firing power, we need long-range missiles, not to allow them to enter our state."

He said Ukraine was grateful for the military aid and weapons supplied by its partners, but that only half of the promised deliveries arrived on time. Every delay benefited Ukraine's much larger and better-equipped foe, with a front line stretching 1,200 km (750 miles).

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MOBILISATION CRUCIAL FOR UKRAINE

Even before Russian forces crossed this month into the northern part of the Kharkiv region, capturing border villages and forcing thousands of civilians to flee, it had been slowly advancing for months in the eastern Donetsk region.

"Time is super-crucial and, to repel the attacks, we need to have [the deliveries] on time in place," Umerov said.

Ukraine has also struggled to recruit the number of troops it requires to replenish and rotate tired and exhausted soldiers, some of whom have been fighting since February 2022. A new mobilisation law came into force last week.

Umerov said up to 1.2 million men had updated their military records online, as the legislation requires, to help draft officers, but did not say how many the government wants to, or thinks it will be able to, call up.

Military analysts put the number of Ukrainian defence personnel, including security and law enforcement, at more than one million.

The minister said Russia had about 500,000 troops in Ukraine and near its borders, and was preparing to add another 200,000-300,000.

Umerov, an ethnic Crimean Tatar, a Turkic minority from the peninsula seized by Russia in 2014, reiterated that Kyiv was determined to liberate all its territory up to its internationally-recognised 1991 borders, including Crimea.

But the main military objective for the coming months would be to hold its defensive lines and to suppress the enemy while enhancing Ukrainian military capabilities in the air, at sea and on land.

He said he expected the F-16 fighter jets to be delivered "hopefully very, very soon".

Asked how many Kyiv expected to receive, he said, in English: "We need as much as we may get."

"At this stage, we are focused on training our personnel ... pilots, we are focused on infrastructure, we are focused on bringing operational and maintenance teams and we are working on modernisation or bringing on more platforms."

He said Ukraine was also continuing to step up its own production of weapons and drones, as well as its electronic warfare capabilities.

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Russia-Ukraine tensions increase

Russia has amassed troops on Ukraine's northern border, triggering new pleas from Kyiv for permission to hit Russia with western missiles.

Putin warns West not to let Ukraine use its missiles to hit Russia

Russian President Putin attends press conference in Tashkent

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Tuesday that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, which he said could trigger a global conflict.

More than two years into the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two, Putin has increasingly spoken of the risk of a much broader global conflict as the West grapples with what to do about the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told The Economist that alliance members should let Ukraine strike deep into Russia with Western weapons, a view supported by some NATO members but not by the United States.

"Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences," Putin told reporters in Tashkent. "If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons?"

"It's hard to say - do they want a global conflict?"

Putin said Ukrainian strikes on Russia with long-range weapons would need Western satellite, intelligence and military help - so the West would be directly involved. He said sending French troops to Ukraine would be a step towards a global conflict.

Speaking of NATO members in Europe, Putin said that small countries there "should be aware of what they are playing with", as they had small land areas and very dense populations.

"This is a factor that they should keep in mind before talking about striking deep into Russian territory," Putin said.

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RUSSIAN ADVANCES TRIGGER DEBATE IN WEST

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine touched off the worst breakdown in relations with the West for 60 years, and the crisis is escalating into what diplomats say is its most dangerous phase to date.

The invasion has caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians, driven millions to flee abroad, and reduced neighbourhoods and whole cities to rubble.

Russia, which controls 18% of Ukraine, is advancing and has opened a new front in the Kharkiv region, triggering a debate in the West about what else it can do after giving Kyiv hundreds of billions of dollars in aid, weapons and intelligence.

Western leaders and Ukraine have played down Russia's warnings about the risk of a broader war involving Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power, and NATO, the world's most powerful military alliance led by the United States.

Ukraine says it should be able to hit behind Russian lines, including against Russian sovereign territory, to fight back.

But Russian officials say Moscow's patience is wearing thin after repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities, oil refineries, and, in recent days, even against elements of its nuclear early warning system.

Asked by Russian state television about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Putin said the only legitimate authority in Ukraine now was parliament, and that its head should be given power.

Zelenskiy has not faced an election despite the expiry of his term due to martial law which was imposed after the invasion.

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