• NATO should use its air defenses to intercept Russian airstrikes, a former NATO chief said.

• Anders Fogh Rasmussen told the i newspaper that missiles could be launched from Poland and Romania.

• NATO members helped Israel shoot down Iranian airstrikes, and could do the same in Ukraine, he said.

NATO countries should use air defenses based in eastern Europe to take down Russian missiles and drones targeting Ukraine, a former NATO chief said.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO's Secretary-General between 2009 and 2014, told the UK's i Paper that interceptor missiles from neighboring NATO countries like Poland and Romania could shoot down Russian airstrikes aimed at Ukraine.

Some NATO members, like the US, UK, and France, deployed fighter jets to help Israel's air defenses intercept Iranian drones and missiles earlier this year.

And the military alliance could do "exactly the same" to help Ukraine shoot down incoming Russian drones and missiles, Rasmussen told the outlet.

He went further, suggesting NATO's air and missile defense systems could be connected to Ukraine's, per the outlet.

Rasmussen said the effort could shield western Ukraine "much more" effectively, protect its defense industry, and kick-start its reconstruction, while also avoiding sending NATO troops into the country, per the outlet.

Most NATO members have so far balked at sending troops to Ukraine or targeting Russian airstrikes from their own territory.

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Instead, Ukraine's allies have sent it nearly $118 billion in direct military aid, as of March, including air defense systems like the US ATACMS, which have been used by Ukraine to devastating effect.

Even so, Ukraine's air defense interception rate dropped from 46% over the last six months to 30% last month, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The outlet reported, based on data from Ukraine, that it was 73% during a six-month period last year.

Ukraine's increasingly strained air defense capabilities have allowed Russia to field more reconnaissance drones, improve its ability to launch HIMARS-style strikes, and knock out its power infrastructure.

In response, the Pentagon said it would "rush" Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine as part of its latest military package, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spent months begging for them.

Ukraine's allies have more than 100 Patriot air-defense systems that they could spare, Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, told The Washington Post last month.

And while some countries, like Spain, are sending theirs, others are refusing, saying they need them to protect their own airspace.

Scrambles of NATO jets against Russian aircraft up more than 20%, source says

 Scrambles of NATO jets to intercept Russian aircraft approaching allied airspace over the Baltic Sea region went up 20% to 25% in the first quarter of 2024, a NATO source said on Thursday, with the increased Russian activity likely due to a hike in NATO drills.

The source declined to give a concrete figure for the number of Russian military flights encountered close to NATO territory.

Last year, NATO said allied fighter jets took off over 300 times to intercept Russian military aircraft, with most of the incidents occurring over the Baltic.

Since then, however, NATO has noticed a change in the mix of Russian aircraft spotted close to allied territory, the source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

Unlike in the past, Western pilots these days barely detect any Russian fighter jets or strategic bombers approaching allied airspace, and most intercepts now involve surveillance aircraft or sometimes transport planes, the source said.

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It is not clear why Russia has changed its behaviour but there is an assumption that Moscow needs its bombers and fighter jets in Ukraine as fighting there has been growing in intensity, the source added.

NATO says Russian military aircraft have a history of not transmitting a transponder code indicating their position and altitude, not filing a flight plan and not communicating with air traffic controllers.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Western military alliance ramped up its presence along its eastern flank, sending more fighter jets there and setting up ground-based air defences.

NATO also deployed extra fighter jets to Romania after repeated Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure close to the alliance's southeastern border.

At the beginning of the year, NATO launched its largest exercise since the Cold War, involving some 90,000 troops.

The drills are meant to rehearse NATO's execution of its regional plans - the first defence plans the alliance has drawn up in decades - detailing how it would respond to a Russian attack.

Top NATO commander says Russian troop numbers insufficient for Kharkiv breakthrough

Ukrainian servicemen place steel wire net on a self-propelled howitzer to protect it from Russian drones at a position in a front line in Kharkiv region.

NATO's top commander said on Thursday he did not believe Russia's military has deployed enough troops to make a strategic breakthrough in the region around Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

General Christopher Cavoli, NATO's supreme allied commander Europe, said he was confident Ukrainian forces would hold their lines in the region.

Russia last week opened a new front in the Ukraine war when small groups of highly mobile units pushed swiftly over the border into the Kharkiv region, forcing Ukraine to rush in troops from other areas.

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"The Russians don't have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough," Cavoli told a press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels after a meeting of military chiefs from across the transatlantic alliance.

"More to the point, they don't have the skill and the capability to do it, to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage," he added.

"They do have the ability to make local advances and they have done some of that. They've also made some local losses."

He did not give any figures for the number of troops Russia has deployed in the area.

Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of NATO's military committee, told the press conference he expected "serious improvements" soon in the amount of ammunition Ukrainian forces would receive.

Russian forces have been outshelling Ukrainian troops sometimes by a ratio of 10 to one, according to officials.

Ukraine's ammunition shortage was partly down to a months-long delay in getting a major military aid package for Ukraine through the U.S. Congress.

Cavoli said Ukraine's allies were now shipping "vast amounts" of ammunition and short-range air defence systems and "significant amounts" of armoured vehicles that would help fight the Kharkiv advance.

"I'm in very close contact with our Ukrainian colleagues. And I'm confident that they that they will hold the line," he said.

Air defenses have been key in tough battles, showing the US what it could need most for a missile war with China

• From Ukraine to the Middle East, air-defense systems have been put under immense stress this year.

• These big engagements show why it's important for militaries to have a strong air-defense network.

• They also offer the US military valuable lessons for a potential war with China in the Pacific.

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Air-defense systems have been tested in unprecedented ways in conflicts around the world by global military powers and smaller militant forces alike.

Massive aerial assaults that occurred over the past few months have underscored the importance of having a robust, layered air-defense network to protect civilian and military targets from ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missiles, as well as one-way attack drones.

The engagements offer the US military valuable lessons for a potential war in the Pacific, where a clash with China could feature thousands of long-range missiles and a demand for air defenses on a very large scale.

As engagements in Ukraine, Israel, and the Red Sea have shown, to be ready for such a daunting scenario, the US will need to substantially strengthen its air-defense capabilities in the region and produce more missile interceptors, former US Navy officers and air-defense experts say.

China has a "very large arsenal of very capable weapons," Bradley Martin, a retired Navy surface warfare captain, told Business Insider. "We don't want to be in a battle of having to exchange missile-for-missile because we'll run out much faster and it'll be harder for us to come up with replacements."

The need for air defense and the dangers of not having enough

Modern, game-changing technologies, like drones, have defined the Ukraine war, but decades-old air defenses have proven to be among the most valuable elements in an existential fight for Ukraine.

The war has shown how effective air defenses can be at denying air superiority, protecting key areas, and threatening high-value aircraft, as well as the costs when capabilities are degraded.

Ukraine's air defenses, like its Soviet-era S-300s and US-supplied Patriots, have defeated enemy missile and drone strikes, hindered Russian air operations, and shot down numerous fighter-bombers and other Russian planes.

But in early 2024, as Russia was ramping up strikes, Ukraine's network of air defenses capable of intercepting these attacks was stretched thinly as US aid remained stalled in Congress.

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Ukraine rationed its defenses, moving them from the front lines to protect cities and other population centers. As it ran critically low on interceptors, the lack of air defenses played a direct role in costing Ukraine the city of Avdiivka, as Russia gained brief and localized air superiority. The impact has continued into spring 2024, as Russian bombardments continue and Ukraine's defenses increasingly fail to intercept the attacks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said additional air-defense systems were vital to keeping Ukrainian cities safe and protecting the front lines. This week, he asked the US for more, requesting at least two more Patriots alone to protect Kharkiv, which is under heavy Russian fire.

Just last week, an overnight attack targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure included dozens of Russian missiles and drones. In its assessment of the attack, the Institute for the Study of War think tank said "Russian forces will likely continue to conduct mass strikes to cause long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure as degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities persist." And that continues to be far from the only problem.

There are lessons for the US and its allies in this fight.

"If Ukraine is a guide, in a conflict NATO air defenses may down most drones and missiles, but some will get through," experts at the RAND Corporation think tank wrote earlier this year. "Ukraine and NATO might reduce risks with a two-prong strategy of strengthening air defenses and boosting infrastructure resilience."

Testing air defenses in more places

Far from Ukraine, off the coast of Yemen, another air battle is taking place, as the Houthis continue to target ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, waterways facilitating global trade.

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels have fired on ships with one-way attack drones and anti-ship missiles — even making history by being the first group to use anti-ship ballistic missiles in combat. The group has struck a handful of merchant vessels, sunk one, and killed civilians on another. But many attacks have been defeated by Western navies.

US and coalition warships routinely shoot down many of these threats, defending both merchant vessels and themselves.

"What we did works, and it works well, and it does what it's intended to do," Archer Macy, a retired US Navy admiral, told BI. "Very few ships have been hit."

Among the systems in play is the Navy's advanced Aegis Combat System, an automated and centralized weapons control system. US destroyers and cruisers are equipped with this capability, which provides air and missile defense.

"The air-defense systems that the Navy has are very capable," Martin, now a senior policy researcher at RAND, said, "and the type of layer defense that it tries to apply has been very effective."

Aegis also came into play during the Middle East's biggest air battle since the region descended into turmoil following Hamas' Oct. 7 terror attacks against Israel. In mid-April, Iran and its proxies launched more than 320 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and one-way attack drones at the country.

American warships and a Patriot battery helped Israel's Arrow systems down many of the ballistic missiles, while US, UK, and French fighter jets destroyed many of the drones. Altogether, around 99% of the threats were eliminated — a remarkable air-defense success.

Shaan Shaikh, a fellow with the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said the engagement last month demonstrated just how effective a robust air-defense network can be.

"These systems work. We've seen in multiple campaigns now evidence of them working," he told BI. "We've proven the technology at some degree, and I think that shows that this investment, in general, is worth it."

But the supply of interceptors is insufficient. The US might not even have what it needs for an extended campaign against Iran. In the Pacific, Shaikh said, "China is going to be a whole separate ball game."

China is a 'different ballgame'

In a fight against China, the US would face a missile force unlike anything it's fought before able to threaten US bases in South Korea, Japan, and Guam housing troops and aircraft, as well as US warships in strategic waterways.

Last fall, the Pentagon published its annual report on China's military, documenting staggering increases in its long-range missile stockpiles and launcher numbers.

China's arsenal of missiles, some with nicknames like the "Guam Express" and "Carrier Killer," and the threat it poses are quite different from what is being seen in battles around the world right now.

Iran's attack against Israel earlier this year was on a smaller scale than what might be seen from China, and the attack, although substantial, was not enough to overwhelm the defenses of Israel and its partners.

Chinese missiles haven't been tested in combat, but Houthi threats appear far less sophisticated, with many of those failing as some Iranian missiles have and falling into the sea.

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The closest comparison is probably Russia, which has sophisticated missiles and the ability to launch large-scale attacks, but it's "nothing like what we could see from" China, Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow with the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, said.

China could launch a preemptive strike that would leave American forces with little time to defend and potentially do serious damage. An attack could come on a tremendous scale that could overwhelm defenses. And a strike could come in waves.

A first wave could include hypersonic missiles fired at defensive systems, such as headquarters, radars, and missile defenses. Then, ballistic missiles could strike runways, trapping aircraft and preventing a quick response.

China's arsenal affords it a number of strike options. The threat from China is one that demands air-defense solutions unlike any conflict seen today, a "very different ballgame in terms of scale and types of weapons," Shugart said.

Needing more interceptors for the Pacific

From the fights this year, the US can see how it'll need to employ air defenses in a potential showdown with China. Shugart said he believes the real world, unscripted experience against the Houthis, as well as the data gathered from Ukraine shooting down Russian missiles, is giving American forces necessary lessons and experience that may be bad for China.

"The takeaway for these experiences might help us to prepare for dealing with something that's a lot scarier," he said.

To prepare for a conflict with China, the US will need a robust, concentrated combination of active and passive measures — ballistic missile defenses, systems like Patriots and Aegis, but also hardened bases, dispersed forces, runway repair crews, and mobile command centers, something that lawmakers sounded alarms on last week in a letter to US military leaders.

The military isn't blind to the threat though.

"The sheer number of missiles that are out there today and that we're seeing utilized in some of the more minor engagements is mind-boggling," Air Force Lt. Gen. Heath Collins, the director of the Missile Defense Agency said earlier this year. "We've got to be prepared for major engagements."

Former Navy officers say it's crucial that the US has enough air-defense interceptors to sustain an extensive missile fight in the Pacific. That means it is important to produce more missiles like the SM-3, a capability that Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro recently warned lawmakers would be needed in greater numbers to deter threats like China.

"Every time you engage something, you're expending a missile, and after a while it starts to turn into a round-for-round calculation," Martin said. "We would be using weapons at a much higher rate than we're capable of replacing them."

Ultimately, military leaders will need to consider how long air-defense capabilities will last when planning their campaign, said Macy, now a senior associate at CSIS' Missile Defense Project.

Air defense alone can't end a conflict, he said, but it can defend critical assets long enough that another force can end the threat by other means, like attack operations. Running out of air defenses before the enemy runs out of air threats spells trouble.

"We've demonstrated we can deal with a high-end threat, we can deal with the low-end threat," Macy said. "It comes down to inventory."

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