Ukraine, trade and investment are expected to dominate Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s first trip to Europe in five years, as the Asian giant rebuilds its foreign relations after a prolonged absence during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Xi will start the tour in Paris on Monday, meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been stressing the idea of European strategic autonomy from the U.S. On a visit to Beijing last year, Macron courted controversy by saying France would not necessarily always align with the U.S. in foreign policy, an apparent reference to American support for the self-governing republic of Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory to be annexed by force if necessary.

After leaving France, Xi will visit Hungary and Serbia, both seen as China-friendly and close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, rebuffing Western criticism of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Xi’s European visits will be closely followed in Washington for signs of diminishing support for its key foreign policy goals.

The Chinese leader will arrive in France just as Paris is putting the finishing touches on its preparations for hosting the Summer Olympics, an event in which China invests huge amount of national prestige.

France sees Xi's visit, which officially marks 60 years of French-Chinese diplomatic relations, as an important diplomatic moment, and wants to focus on China’s broader relations with the EU. Macron invited European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to the talks Monday.

It comes a month before Macron, who positions himself as the diplomatic leader of Europe, hosts Biden for a similar state visit.

It is also a sign of “the good vibes from Macron’s visit to China in April last year," said Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese Studies and director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London.

“This is a highly strategic visit to Europe by Xi. And in his itinerary you can divine the runes of Chinese policy on Europe now, bolstering the traditional links as far as possible, and reinforcing new ones,” Brown said.

Xi's is also visiting Budapest, where Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, in power for 14 years, is facing political challenges from the opposition over his authoritarian style.

Hungary has straddled a middle ground between its membership in the EU and NATO and an unusual openness to diplomatic and trade relationships with eastern autocracies such as Russia and China.

Orbán, a right-wing populist who has forged close ties with Russia, delayed Sweden’s entry into NATO for months. China has cited NATO expansion as provoking Russia to invade Ukraine.

Hungary is the first EU member to participate in Xi's signature Belt and Road Initiative that seeks to build billions of dollars of roads, ports, power plants and other infrastructure across Asia, Africa and beyond.

Orbán was the only EU leader to attend a conference in Beijing on the BRI, which has been criticized for burying participating countries in debt and failing to deliver on promised investments, something that prompted Italy to drop out last year.

Despite that, Hungary’s government has deepened its economic ties with China, with the proliferation of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery factories across the country gaining the most attention. Near Debrecen, Hungary’s second-largest city, construction is underway of a nearly 550-acre, 7.3 billion euro ($7.9 billion) EV battery plant, Hungary’s largest-ever foreign direct investment.

China has also invested heavily in infrastructure to link Hungary with its southern neighbor Serbia, Xi's next stop on his European tour.

In 2014, Hungary and Serbia concluded an agreement with Beijing to modernize the railway between their capitals of Budapest and Belgrade, part of a Belt and Road plan to link up with the Chinese-controlled port of Piraeus in Greece, to the south, an entry point for Chinese goods to Central and Eastern Europe.

The more than $2 billion project is expected to be completed in 2026, after numerous delays.

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In Serbia, Xi will hold talks with President Aleksandar Vucic, with whose government China has built strong relations.

The two countries have a long history of friendship, particularly since 1999, when NATO bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese nationals, during the air war to end Serbia’s brutal crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists in Kosovo.

The U.S. apologized, saying faulty target selection was to blame, but the incident led to violent attacks on U.S. diplomatic installations in China and fueled anti-American sentiment in both countries that endures to this day.

In 2022, shortly after the Russian assault on Ukraine, Serbia took semi-secret delivery of a sophisticated Chinese anti-aircraft system flown in on six Chinese Air Force Y-20 transport planes. The arms delivery over the territory of at least two NATO member states, Turkey and Bulgaria, was seen by experts as a demonstration of China’s growing global reach.

China claims neutrality in the Ukraine conflict but Xi and Putin declared their governments had a “no limits friendship” before Moscow’s attack on Ukraine. China has refused to call the Russian assault an invasion and has been accused of bolstering Russia’s capacity to produce weapons and its military advantage against Ukraine, which is awaiting tens of billions in Western military aid.

A U.S. military aid bill passed last week allots $61 billion for Ukraine, as well as $8 billion to counter Chinese threats in Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, which China has condemned as a dangerous provocation.

China’s foreign ministry said the U.S. position on Chinese defense trade with Russia was hypocritical when considered alongside the amount of military assistance Washington is providing to Kyiv.

China denies selling arms to Russia and the U.S. says it has found no direct evidence of such evidence of such. However, China does sell machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in its war against Ukraine, according to a U.S. assessment.

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Xi Jinping visits France to try and improve faltering China-EU ties

Chinese President Xi Jinping is due to make a state visit to France on May 6 and 7 with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East expected to be high on the agenda.

The visit to France, which will be followed by trips to Serbia and Hungary, marks the Chinese leader's first European tour since the coronavirus pandemic.

"This visit takes place on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries and follows on from the president's visit to Beijing and Guangzhou in April, 2023", President Emmanuel Macron's office said in a statement issued last week.

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"Exchanges will focus on international crises, first and foremost the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, trade issues, scientific, cultural and sporting cooperation," the Elysee palace added.

According to the statement, Xi and Macron will also discuss "joint actions to tackle global challenges, in particular the climate emergency, the protection of biodiversity and the financial situation of the most vulnerable countries."

Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron will host Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan in Paris on May 6. On May 7, the two couples will travel to the southwestern department of Hautes-Pyrenees, where Macron travelled often as a child to see his grandmother.

Little hope of Ukraine breakthrough during Xi France visit: observers

French President Emmanuel Macron will next week make a new push to try and dissuade China's Xi Jinping from supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine but is unlikely to make a breakthrough on ending the conflict during the visit, observers say.

President Xi's visit is set to be rich on symbolism -- with a sumptuous dinner at the Elysee Palace and a trip to the Pyrenees mountains planned -- but risks being short on diplomatic success for the French leader.

"France and the European Union expect him to use his influence on Russia, but Xi Jinping has nothing to offer on Ukraine," said a former European diplomat, asking not to be named.

Xi is due to make a state visit to France on Monday and Tuesday, followed by visits to Serbia and Hungary, two European countries retaining warm ties with Russia.

While Xi and Macron will discuss international crises, trade, climate change and cultural exchanges, the key aim will be to "point out that for Europe, the first issue with China is its position on Ukraine", said a source close to the French government.

On a visit to China in 2023, Macron had already called on Xi to "bring Russia to its senses" over Ukraine and urged him not to deliver weapons to Moscow.

- 'Done nothing on Ukraine' -

Little has changed, however. Xi will host Putin for talks in China later this month.

Macron, 46, indicated he had not given up on the idea of trying to get Xi, 70, on his side.

"It's not in China's interest today to have a Russia that destabilises the international order," the French president said in an interview with The Economist published on Thursday. "We need to work with China to build peace."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has urged Beijing to play a greater role in ending the Ukraine war, will join Macron and Xi for talks on Monday.

Macron has said he will ask the Chinese president to help him achieve that aim when he visits Paris, which is preparing to host the Olympic Games this summer.

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There is a historic tradition that peace should reign during the Olympics -- although the opening of the Games in Beijing in August 2008 did not halt Russia's invasion of Georgia.

"On Ukraine, China has done nothing", said Marc Julienne, director of the Centre for Asian Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

In February 2023, China published a 12-point position paper on Ukraine, but it was rejected by Kyiv and its Western allies.

- 'Counter the West' -

Beijing, which says it is a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict, has been criticised for refusing to condemn Moscow for its offensive.

The United States had accused China of helping Russia carry out its biggest militarisation since Soviet times.

US officials say China has provided dual-use supplies that have let Russia regroup in the face of a long delay in US aid to Ukraine.

In April, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this included "machine tools, semiconductors, other dual-use items that have helped Russia rebuild the defense industrial base that sanctions and export controls had done so much to degrade".

China has rejected the US claims as "groundless accusations".

Macron, too, is expected to raise "concerns" about "the activity of certain Wuhan companies that could be directly involved in or contribute significantly to the Russian war effort", according to a member of his team.

Beijing is a major supporter of the Russian economy.

China-Russia trade in 2023 reached a record $240 billion, according to customs data, overshooting a goal of $200 billion set by the neighbours.

Experts say Beijing is unlikely to renounce support for Moscow, which it sees as a priority partner in its opposition to the United States.

"Xi Jinping's priority is the Global South," said Emmanuel Lincot, a China expert at the Catholic University of Paris.

"There is a congruence in the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship, particularly in the desire to counter the West. Which is not to say that there is no rivalry."

Xi heads to Europe to defend Russia ties

Xi Jinping heads to Europe on Sunday to defend China's "no limits" alliance with Russia, first to key Ukraine backer France, then to Serbia and Hungary, which have close ties to the Kremlin.

The world's second-biggest economy is seeking to deepen political and economic ties in Europe to counterbalance difficult relations with rival Washington.

But analysts say that if France and other Ukraine allies in Europe believe that Xi can be coaxed into abandoning his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, they will be disappointed.

Despite French President Emmanuel Macron's red carpet welcome for Xi when he arrives on Sunday, their talks will be far from straightforward.

In Paris on Monday, Xi and Macron will hold talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has urged Beijing to play a greater role in ending the Ukraine war.

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"If the European side expects China to impose sanctions on Russia, or to join the United States and Europe in imposing economic sanctions on Russia, I think it's clearly unlikely to happen," said Ding Chun, director of the Centre for European Studies at Shanghai's Fudan University.

Xi is seeking to push back on recent European Union probes into China's industry, but France has made clear that "first and foremost" on the agenda will be Russia's war in Ukraine.

China claims to be a neutral party in Ukraine but has never condemned Russia's invasion, while the United States has said Moscow would struggle to sustain its war without Beijing's support.

Beijing is "the international player with the greatest leverage to change Moscow's mind", a French diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"Paris will put China's support to Russia at the core of the discussion," said Abigael Vasselier, at the Mercator Institute for China Studies.

"This will certainly not be conducive to a feel-good moment, despite the optics."

- How far will Xi go? -

Xi's visit to Europe will be the first since the end of China's Covid isolation.

It also comes a year after Macron conducted a state visit to China in April 2023, during which he said he was counting on Xi to "bring Russia to its senses" over Ukraine.

At the time, Macron exasperated European allies by saying the bloc should not be dragged into a conflict between China and its main rival the United States over Taiwan -- while earning praise in Beijing over the comments.

In February this year, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited France and told Macron that Beijing appreciated its "independent foreign policy".

"We will see how far Xi Jinping will go to please Emmanuel Macron," said Valerie Niquet, from the Foundation for Strategic Research.

After he ends his European trip, Xi will return to China, with Putin expected to visit later in May.

"China will not budge on Ukraine," Niquet said.

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- 'Price to pay' -

While Macron and von der Leyen will seek to focus on Ukraine, Xi will want to fight a series of probes launched by the bloc into alleged unfair trade practices by China.

The investigations run the gamut across China's industrial output, from solar panels and electric vehicle subsidies, to procurement in its medical devices sector.

Beijing has slammed the moves as "protectionism".

"The Chinese side is very keen to bring this to the table, but France is behind the European Commission plans," Philippe Le Corre, from the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, told AFP.

"It is time for European leaders to explain to China that the price to pay for its growing support to Russia's war effort will increase," the Mercator Institute's Vasselier said.

- 'Eastern opening' -

From France, Xi will head to Serbia, and then Hungary on May 8-10.

The visit to the Serbian capital Belgrade will coincide with the anniversary of the 1999 US bombing of the Chinese embassy there -- allowing for Xi to send a pointed anti-Western message.

China has invested heavily to expand its economic footprint in central and eastern Europe, including vast battery and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing plants in Hungary, and copper and gold operations in Serbia.

"The plan to commemorate the... NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy... also paves the way for Putin's visit to China: NATO is a threat to international security," said Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for European Union Studies at Renmin University of China.

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In Budapest, he will meet Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an avowed nationalist who opposes the official EU position on Russia.

Orban has been championing an "Eastern opening" foreign policy since his return to power in 2010, seeking closer economic ties to China, Russia and other Asian countries.

Despite its small size, the Central European country of 9.6 million people has attracted a flood of major Chinese projects in recent years.

Orban spoke last month spoke about his vision for a "sovereignist world", where the "global economy is organised non-ideologically along the lines of mutual benefit."

Xi's trip to Europe may lay bare West's divisions over China strategy

Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to Europe for the first time in five years next week in a visit that may lay bare European divisions over trade with Beijing and how the continent positions itself as a pole between the United States and China.

Xi travels to France, Serbia and Hungary at a time when the European Union is threatening to hammer China's electric vehicle and green energy industries with tariffs over huge subsidies the bloc says gives manufacturers in China an unfair edge.

With China's economy facing headwinds and the U.S. closing itself off to Chinese firms, the European Union could have some leverage over Beijing. But the bloc's 27 members are not neatly aligned, undermining their ability to shape Chinese thinking, analysts say.

Overshadowing the visit are European concerns over Chinese support for Russia's wartime economy two years into its military campaign in Ukraine.

Lin Jian, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry, said Xi's visit would "inject stability into the development of China-Europe relations and make new contributions to peace and stability in the world".

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Xi's goal would be neutralising the EU's economic security agenda, including its tariff threats, by exploiting internal differences, said Mathieu Duchatel, senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne.

"There's a very strong divide and rule element," Duchatel said of China's strategy towards Europe. "That's not hidden but in plain sight."

European companies and governments have long complained of restricted access to the Chinese market and unfair competition. A Kiel Institute study estimated China's subsidies for its firms range between three to nine times other major economies.

The European Commission has the exclusive right to run trade policy for the whole collective EU, but within the bloc member states have struggled to agree how to fix the trade imbalance.

Macron seeks a more aggressive EU stance on subsidies and warned that the bloc risked falling behind if it did not permit exemptions to its own competition rules in the face of 'oversubsidies' by China and the U.S.

'WE DON'T PROTECT ENOUGH'

"We regulate too much, we don't invest enough, we don't protect enough," Macron told The Economist in an interview published on Thursday.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in April pressed Xi for better market access for German firms. But on the EU anti-subsidy investigations, apparently anxious to avoid antagonising Beijing, he said the bloc should not act out of protectionist self-interest although competition should be fair.

Some French government officials say privately that they are concerned Berlin will try to undermine the electric vehicle probe, which has zeroed in on Chinese carmakers BYD, Geely and SAIC. China is a key market for Germany's export-led economy and its carmakers such as BMW and Mercedez-Benz.

Scholz is due to dine with Macron and the two leaders' wives in Paris on Thursday, two sources involved in the planning said.

Noah Barkin, a senior adviser at the Rhodium Group and close follower of EU-China relations, said Macron would encourage Scholz to join him and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for four-way talks with Xi in the French capital, as Paris seeks to present a united front. The Elysee Palace declined to comment.

"A worrying gap has opened up between the German position on China, on the one hand, and the position of the French and the European Commission, on the other. There is simply a greater readiness in Paris and Brussels to push back against Beijing on the trade front than there is in Berlin," Barkin said.

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RUSSIA CONCERNS

"Europe has quite a bit of leverage, but that leverage flies out the window if European lenders are sending different messages to Xi," Barkin added.

Xi will be in Europe from May 5-10.

A Macron aide said the French leader would add his voice to calls from Washington, Brussels, Berlin and elsewhere for China to stop exports to Russia of "dual-use" and other technologies propping up Russia's war effort.

In Serbia and Hungary, any public comments by Xi on Russia will face close scrutiny. Xi is due to host Russian President Vladimir Putin in China later in May.

Observers said Xi's choice of Serbia and Hungary was designed to pull closer two European countries that are pro-Russia and large recipients of Chinese investment, including financial aid for a delayed rail project linking their capitals.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he was honoured by Xi’s visit, and he expected a free trade agreement between the two countries signed last October to come into force on July 1.

Chinese analysts said Xi could use his stopover in Belgrade, which coincides with the 20th anniversary of NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy there, to play up China's anti-NATO agenda.

China has amplified Russian efforts to blame the U.S. and NATO for escalating the Ukraine war by supplying arms to Kyiv.

Hungary has also in the past blocked EU statements criticising China on human rights.

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, described the outreach to Serbia and Hungary as part of China's efforts to deepen divisions within the West.