The Pentagon is building up more bases in Luzon, the northernmost big island of The Philippines. The latest moves could have big implications, as Chinese hoarding of gold is thought by some to indicate that Beijing is preparing to move on Taiwan.

It’s hard to overstate how important America’s new Philippine bases are. They lie as close as 250 miles to Taiwan, helping to ease the tyranny of distance that is one of the biggest problems in US planning for a possible war with China over Taiwan. The only other major US base within 400 miles of Taiwan is in Okinawa, Japan’s southernmost prefecture.

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Kadena air base in Okinawa would be a major hub – perhaps the major hub – for American forces fighting for Taiwan. But lying just 400 miles off the Chinese coast on an isolated island, Kadena is a big fat target for Chinese missiles.

More than a decade ago, the Pentagon conceded it needed more bases in close proximity to Taiwan. Which is why, back in 2014, the US and Philippine governments inked a new agreement granting American troops greater access to more bases in The Philippines. The two countries expanded the agreement last year.

It’s taken years for the new basing deal to go into effect. In one of the more visible demonstrations of this Philippine build-up, the US Army recently deployed part of one of its new missile task forces to Luzon.

The “mid-range capability battery,” one of four batteries in the Washington State-based 1st Multi-Domain Task Force, has hundreds of troops operating four quad-launchers that fire either Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles or SM-6 interceptor missiles that can shoot down aircraft and enemy missiles, including ballistic and perhaps some kinds of hypersonic ones. The SM-6 can also, in a pinch, strike targets on the surface.

The new US battery can hit targets on land, at sea and in the air as far as a thousand miles away. Deploying it to Luzon, even temporarily, “is a significant step in our partnership with The Philippines,” said Brig. Gen. Bernard Harrington, the 1st MDTF’s commander.

From Luzon, Army missiles could swat at Chinese ships, planes, missiles and drones threatening Taiwan – or even strike at Chinese bases and ports hosting these ships, planes, missiles and drones. The same Army missiles could protect the old air base the US Air Force is reconditioning in Luzon.

The Air Force needs Luzon as badly as the Army does. Its best F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters can fly just 500 miles or so with internal fuel – 600 miles in the case of F-22s carrying underwing fuel tanks. Mid-air refueling can add some range.

In concentrating practically all of its best warplanes at Kadena during a clash with China, the Air Force would risk losing all those warplanes if Chinese forces managed to penetrate Kadena’s air defences and bombard the base.

It’s not for no reason that, in March 2023, the USAF deployed F-22s to Clark Air Base in Luzon. It was the first-ever deployment to The Philippines by American stealth fighters.

The Air Force is preparing to spread out its best jets in order to complicate Chinese targeting. But that’s only helpful to US war plans if the dispersed basing still puts forces within reach of the likeliest battle zones around Taiwan.

The 2014 basing agreement, amended in 2023, gives the Americans access to at least three other bases in Luzon. Last year, American and Philippine engineers began repairing a 1.7-mile runway at one of those bases, in Pampanga. The trend is clear: Luzon is becoming a possible major operating location for US forces.

Imagine USAF F-35s launching from Philippine air bases to tangle with Chinese jets over southern Taiwan, while US Army Tomahawks harry Chinese air bases and Army SM-6s intercept Chinese missiles targeting the F-35s and Tomahawk launchers.

If there’s a major obstacle to US forces staging from Luzon for operations around Taiwan, it’s political. There was a time when Philippine leaders were reluctant to involve their country in a potentially destructive regional conflict. Even now, it’s possible to imagine the government in Manila voicing strong support for the US-Philippine alliance – until the United States calls on that alliance to help defend Taiwan.

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It’s also possible to observe that reluctance rapidly fading. Chinese ships have been tightening their cordon around the Philippine base on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. In March, Chinese coast guard vessels aimed powerful water cannons at a Philippine navy boat shuttling supplies to the base, itself a Philippine navy vessel the crew deliberately grounded on the shoal decades ago. This week, there has been more harassment of Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, in waters which belong to Manila under international law – but which Beijing claims as its own under its “Nine Dash Line” doctrine, under which for some reason it would own most of the Sea.

Some Philippine crew members have been injured, sparking a heated diplomatic row. With each maritime assault, Beijing drives Manila closer to Washington DC and, by extension, closer to other regional powers that have grown only more hostile to Chinese expansionism – and more likely to join the United States in fighting for Taiwan’s independence.

Critically, The Philippines wouldn’t need to launch a single missile or sortie a single warplane in order to help defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. All it would need to do is let US forces – Army missile batteries and  Air Force fighters – access those critical bases.

Chinese water cannon damages ship in new South China Sea flare-up, Philippines says

China’s coast guard fired water cannons that damaged a Philippine vessel on Tuesday, marking the latest flare-up of violence between the two countries in the disputed South China Sea, Philippine authorities said.

The Philippine Coast Guard said the incident occurred as one of its ships and a fisheries agency vessel carried out a “legitimate patrol” near Scarborough Shoal, a Chinese-controlled rocky outcrop 130 miles (200 kilometers) west of the main Philippine island of Luzon and inside Manila’s exclusive economic zone.

Video supplied by the Philippine Coast Guard showed two larger Chinese vessels firing water cannons from opposite sides of the Philippine ship.

“The Philippine vessels encountered dangerous maneuvers and obstruction from four China Coast Guard vessels and six Chinese Maritime Militia vessels,” Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela said in the statement.

The Philippine Coast Guard ship suffered “damage to the railing and canopy,” according to its statement. No injuries were reported.

In a post on social platform Weibo Tuesday, the China Coast Guard said it had expelled the Philippine vessels for “intruding” into the waters, “in accordance with the law.”

Beijing asserts ownership over almost all of the South China Sea in defiance of an international court ruling. Over the past two decades, China has occupied a number of obscure reefs and atolls far from its shoreline across the South China Sea, building up military installations, including runways and ports.

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Scarborough Shoal, which China calls Huangyan Island and is also known as Bajo de Masinloc, is a small but strategic reef and fertile fishing ground.

There are no structures on the shoal, but China has maintained a continuous coast guard presence around it since 2012, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

The Philippines also said Tuesday that China had reinstalled a 380-meter (1,247-feet) floating barrier that “covers the entire entrance of the shoal, effectively restricting access to the area.”

Scarborough Shoal is one of several disputed islands and reefs in the South China Sea, which have long been a flashpoint of territorial disputes between the two nations.

In March, Chinese coast guard ships fired water cannons against a Philippine vessel on a resupply mission to a contingent of Filipino marines on another contested South China Sea feature, Second Thomas Shoal, causing “heavy damages.”

That shoal sits about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the coast of the Philippine island of Palawan. In the 1990s the Philippines grounded an aging World War II-era transport ship called the BRP Sierra Madre on the shoal, to help enforce its claim to the area. The ship is now mostly a rusted wreckage and is staffed by marines stationed on rotation.

Following that incident, the China Coast Guard said on Weibo it had taken “control measures in accordance with the law” against the Philippine vessels, which it said had “illegally entered the waters adjacent to Ren’ai Reef,” as Beijing calls Second Thomas Shoal.

Earlier in March, Chinese water cannon hit a Philippine resupply boat as it headed to Second Thomas Shoal, shattering windows and injuring four Filipino sailors.

Beijing and Manila’s South China Sea disputes have heated up since the 2022 election of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has taken a stronger line against China than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.

The clashes have also raised fears they could lead to a wider conflict, as Manila maintains a mutual defense treaty with the United States, which Washington says covers Philippine vessels in the disputed waterway.