Donald Trump during the NATO summit at The Grove, 2019

It may sound counter-intuitive, but Donald Trump has probably done more to strengthen Nato than any other political leader in recent years. While he was president, he berated European members of the alliance for failing to pay what he called their “dues”, accusing them of freeloading on the US.

Earlier this year, he seemed to go even further by suggesting at an election rally, not only that he would not bring America to the defence of “delinquent” Nato members, but would encourage Russia to attack them. Cue a predictable international outcry, led by Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, who accused him of undermining “all of our security”. Joe Biden, of course, waded in, saying Trump’s remarks were “appalling and dangerous” and would give Putin “a green light for more war and violence”.

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Both of them were wrong. Anyone who has the slightest understanding of Trump’s negotiating techniques knows that he is unlikely to have meant what he said literally; it was a rhetorical device to emphasise his entirely valid point about recalcitrant Nato members. As for a green light, it was Biden who flashed that at Putin with his disastrous retreat from Kabul in 2021, which can only have contributed to Moscow’s calculations on invading Ukraine the following year.

Trump’s presidency was in fact a red light against Putin’s aggression, largely because of his unpredictable nature. And that same unpredictability has now rattled many Nato leaders into recognising that they need to step up their defence efforts for fear that he might abandon Nato in a second term.

Poland, now with the largest defence spending by percentage of GDP in the whole of the alliance, has bolstered its military out of fear of Russian invasion. But do we really think that the likes of Germany would finally have started to get their act together without genuine concern over a second Trump presidency? It doesn’t seem to have been Putin’s invasion that spurred them into action. We’ve had two years of heel-dragging and inadequate military support to Kyiv on the part of France and Germany. Britain, meanwhile, has been inexplicably continuing to reduce the size of its Armed Forces.

But not any longer. And Rishi Sunak even implicitly linked his announcement of a significant boost in defence spending to Trump, when he said: “We can’t keep thinking America will pay any price or bear any burden if we are unwilling to make sacrifices for our own security”. Sunak’s long overdue uplift was not only intended to bring Britain’s defences closer to where they need to be, but also to encourage other Nato members to match our future spending of 2.5 per cent of GDP in anticipation of a potential Trump victory in November.

UK ministers are reportedly pushing actively for that ahead of the Nato summit in Washington this summer. Even 2.5 per cent will not be enough to meet Nato’s new capability targets, but  at least it is a start. Eighteen Nato members will meet the current 2 per cent target this year, a significant rise compared to the start of Trump’s first presidency.

Remembering Trump’s mercurial character, it is of course possible that as president he might actually pull the US out of Nato, though that would require Congressional approval. His then National Security Adviser, John Bolton, said he came close to doing so back in 2018. But even if that does happen, Trump-driven increased spending in Europe will have already made the world a safer place. Combined with greater military capability, the political will demonstrated by making hard choices on defence expenditure in a tough economic climate will act as the most effective deterrent against aggression.

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Outgoing Dutch prime minister visits Turkey's Erdogan in his bid for the NATO chief position

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, center, looks up at Netherland's Prime Minister Mark Rutte and French President Emmanuel Macron during a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels, Wednesday, April 17, 2024. European leaders' discussions at a summit in Brussels were set to focus on the bloc's competitiveness in the face of increased competition from the United States and China. Tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine decided otherwise and the 27 leaders will dedicate Wednesday evening talks to foreign affairs.

The Netherlands’ outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte was in Turkey on Friday, seeking support from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the Dutch official's bid for the position of NATO secretary general.

Incumbent NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister who has been NATO’s top civilian official since 2014, is nearing the end of his term. His mandate had been extended several times as the alliance needed to keep a steady hand at the helm after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

NATO members Turkey and Hungary had earlier expressed reservations about Rutte’s candidacy. During his friday visit, Rutte spoke at a joint news conference with Erdogan.

The southern wing of NATO “needs Turkey and its leadership,” Rutte said, describing Ankara as a very influential actor in the region and a geopolitical power.

Erdogan made no commitments on who Turkey’s would support or say what Ankara's position was.

“No one should have any doubt that we will make our decision within the framework of strategic wisdom and equity,” Erdogan said.

He added that an ideal candidate for the post of NATO chief would “ensure solidarity within the alliance and order among the allies” and also “prioritize the preservation of NATO’s essential position in ensuring Euro-Atlantic security.”

However, at the end of the news conference, Erdogan wished Rutte success and smiled at him. The exchange also drew a smile from Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

NATO officials and envoys want the nomination for Stoltenberg's successor wrapped up by the end of April, before competition for top European Union jobs begins in earnest around the June 6-9 elections. They are also keen to avoid having the potentially divisive issue mar the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July.

NATO chiefs are responsible for chairing meetings and guiding sometimes delicate consultations among member countries. They also are tasked with speaking on behalf of all member nations with one voice.