Israel’s leaders met today during a war cabinet meeting to discuss the country’s response after Iran launched a combination of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles towards Israeli soil in the early hours of Sunday morning. It was the first time the Islamic Republic, long hostile to the Israeli state, directly attacked Israel after decades of proxy conflict.

Iran says that its attack was launched in response to an Israeli strike Apr. 1 on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed a senior individual in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards along with eight other officers. So far, Iran’s attack seems to have caused minimal damage. No deaths have been reported, though one 7-year-old appears to be in life threatening condition after shrapnel from an intercepted Iranian missile fell directly on her home.

Israel had support from American, British, and French partners who helped it thwart “99% of Iranian aerial threats,” IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said. Jordan also intercepted some of the Iranian projectiles that flew over its territory, despite fiercely criticizing Israel’s war in Gaza, which has killed at least 33,00 people including 13,000 children.

International Pressure

The U.S. has urged Israel not to retaliate to avoid escalating the situation into a broader regional war. “Slow things down and think through [how to respond],” Biden was quoted saying to Netanyahu according to a report from the Washington Post. He also told Netanyahu that Israel should be satisfied with its successful response and to leave it at that. “You got a win. Take the win,” Biden said according to Axios. Leaders in France and Britain have called on Israel to restrain itself, fearing the destabilizing consequences of a broader war.

Hisham Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, says that Israel’s response will be heavily based on whether or not the U.S. will penalize them for acting too strongly. “[It depends on] do they think that the United States has their back and will not penalize them,” says Hellyer. “The reality is that the United States has tremendous leverage over Israel and has so far refused to use it.”

Israel receives approximately 68% of its foreign-sourced weapons from the U.S. in addition to at least $3 billion in military aid per year. The U.S. appeared to pause Israel’s actions in Gaza for the first time last month when President Biden refused to greenlight an Israeli military operation in Rafah, Gaza’s Southernmost city, without guarantees that Palestinian civilians would be protected.

Israel’s Internal Politics

Nevertheless, Netanyahu faces strong pressures from Israel’s right-wing parties to retaliate against Iran. They argue that if Israel does not respond harshly, there will be nothing to deter the Islamic Republic from striking again and severely disrupting the lives of Israelis. “We must respond… so that the rockets from Iran won’t become routine like the rockets from Gaza,” Galit Distel Atbaryan, an Israeli parliament member who is part of Netanyahu’s Likud party, said on Israeli television. Intercepting Iranian missiles and drones is extremely financially costly, and Israelis are eager to avoid Iran sending a similar barrage again.

For now, it appears that Israeli officials are leaning towards some kind of non-immediate response. Yesterday, Israeli Minister Benny Gantz said that Israel would respond in some way but did not specify how. “This episode is not over… We will build a regional coalition against the threat of Iran and we will exact a price from them at a time that suits us,” he said. Gantz is one of three members of Israel’s war cabinet along with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. The cabinet was established after the war in Gaza began and meets at least once every 48 hours.

During today’s most recent meeting, it appeared as though the war cabinet had come to the conclusion that they would respond to Iran, but still had not come to an agreement as to how significant of an attack they would launch.

Regional Dynamics

From a regional point of view, the attack was a reminder that despite the war in Gaza, Israel still has allies in the Arab world, says Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow at Chatham House who specializes in Middle East politics. “Iran probably also got the message that if it tries to attack Israel, there will be a response not only from Israel, but from its allies including within the Arab world.”

Iran has long been engaged in a sort of proxy-conflict with Saudi Arabia as the two powers compete for dominance in the region. While Israel is disliked by much of the Arab world, multiple Arab countries showed that they are willing to work with Israel over Iran in order to curb the Islamic Republic’s influence. The Wall Street Journal reported in addition to Jordan striking down some of the missiles, multiple gulf countries shared intelligence with the U.S. and Israel regarding Iran’s drone and missile launches.

Should Israel retaliate, Iran has vowed to respond with an even stronger response. “I emphasize that any new adventure against the interests of the Iranian nation will be met with a heavier and regrettable response,” Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, said.

After Iranian airstrike, U.S. support for Israel remains 'ironclad,' Biden says

Palestinians endeavor to salvage usable items from the rubble-strewn streets and buildings following months of Israeli bombardment, in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Saturday on April 13, 2024. 

President Joe Biden says the United States' support for Israel remains "ironclad" following an attempted drone strike by Iran, while Israel faces international pressure to reduce the intensity of its attacks on Hamas.

Iran has said it will "exact a price" if Israel or any of its allies retaliate for the strike, in which Iran launched approximately 300 weapons -- 170 drones and over 120 ballistic missiles -- toward Israel late Saturday.

Israeli authorities said 99% of the weapons were intercepted with help from allies including the United States, Britain and France. A 7-year-old girl was reportedly wounded by shrapnel.

U.S. forces shot down more than 80 attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles, Central Command said in a statement.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said after the attacks, "we have intercepted, we have contained. Together we shall win."

Israel's war cabinet, which has the authorization to respond to attacks, met Sunday. War cabinet member Benny Gantz said the "event is not over."

He called for the need to "build a regional coalition and exact a price from Iran, in a way and at a time that suits us."

Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel had "thwarted this attack in a way that is unparalleled" and added, "we must be prepared for every scenario."

Hamas is a proxy for Iran in this war, and Iran's attack was predicted by U.S. intelligence hours before it happened.

An Israeli official separately told CNN that Israel will respond to Iran's attack, but the scope of that attack has not been determined. The official said Israel is deciding whether to "break all the dishes" or do something more measured in response.

Iran's retaliatory attack, which has been anticipated since a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Syria earlier this month, finally came late on Saturday.

Conflict between Israel and Iran has been simmering for years, and Iran's missile and drone launch marked the first time Tehran had initiated a direct assault on Israel from its soil.

Iran said Sunday a "new equation" in its relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a "much bigger" assault on the country should Netanyahu decide to retaliate.

"We have decided to create a new equation, which is that if from now on the Zionist regime attacks our interests, assets, officials and citizens, anywhere, and at any point we will retaliate against them," the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami told Iranian state TV.

The "Zionist regime" is a term Iran uses to refer to Israel.

"If the Zionist regime responds, our next operation will be much bigger," Sardar Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, said.

Iran's attacks targeted the Israeli airbase from which, it said, the strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was launched. Iranian ballistic missiles that reached Israel fell on the airbase in southern Israel, and caused slight structural damage, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said.

Bagheri said the military operation against Israel "has concluded." But he emphasized that Iranian armed forces remain on high alert and are prepared to "act if necessary," according to an interview on state IRINN TV on Sunday.

The five-hour-long attack Saturday threatened to draw other countries into the war between Israel and Hamas, which launched a surprise terror attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 people.

Israel's unbridled retaliatory attacks have killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, and has caused a humanitarian disaster in the enclave.

Officials have said the region is bordering on famine because food and aid supplies have been disrupted. An Israeli missile strike on Gaza earlier this month killed seven international workers from the World Food Kitchen, and the hostilities caused other humanitarian workers to back away from the region.

World leaders have called on Netanyahu for a cease-fire or a change in strategy in his attacks on Gaza, but he has so far turned a deaf ear to those pleas, vowing to destroy Hamas.

After the Saturday night attack, President Joe Biden spoke by phone with Netanyahu and made clear that the United States would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, a senior White House administration official told CNN.

Biden told Netanyahu he should consider the events of Saturday night a "win," as Iran's attacks had been largely unsuccessful, and instead demonstrated Israel's "remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks."

Israel has told the United States that it's not "looking for a significant escalation with Iran," a senior Biden administration told reporters Sunday.

"They're looking to protect themselves and defend themselves," the official said.

"The president was very clear that we're going to help defend Israel, and he made very clear to the prime minister last night that we do have to think carefully and strategically about risks of escalation," the official added.