Opinion-Macron is a modern-day Cassandra, doomed to be right
Whether it is fair to call Emmanuel Macron a modern-day Cassandra, only time will tell. The original Trojan priestess of that name was doomed to predict disaster but was never to be believed. Will that prove to be the French president’s fate after his warning this week that the West may have to step in to save Ukraine if Russia makes a military breakthrough?
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a ceremony to seal the right to abortion in the French constitution, on International Women's Day, at the Place Vendome, in Paris,
Macron is reported to have shown maps of the current battlefield in Ukraine to French opposition party leaders to illustrate to them the points of potential Russian advance. In doing so, he said that there should be “no more red lines” on France’s involvement, even hinting – as a consequence – that Western boots might have to go on the ground.
Has he overstated his case, perhaps for domestic political reasons? It’s certainly a remarkable turnaround from Macron’s early position on the war. He seems now to be saying what was once considered inconceivable.
Today, even Britain, the cheerleader for Ukraine since February 2022, baulks at anything resembling a more direct intervention, with Lord Cameron earlier in the week urging Europe to rein in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, to get these crises to the “best possible place” by the time of the US presidential election.
There can be no doubt that supporting Ukraine must remain the top priority for European countries to contain further Russian aggression. Why else would Finland and Sweden have chosen this moment in their histories to join Nato? As matters stand, there is no obvious scope for a negotiated settlement to the Ukrainian war – the stated objectives of presidents Putin and Zelensky remain mutually irreconcilable.
A year ago, Western countries agonised for too long over whether to send Ukraine F-16 aircraft, main battle tanks, long-range missiles and copious quantities of ammunition. Meanwhile, the Russians were not idle, energetically creating long and deep lines of well-constructed defence.
It was unsurprising, therefore, that the much-anticipated counter offensive by Ukraine became the stalemate that existed over this winter. Now as the weather warms, the shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian side has given Russia an opportunity to push forward. Against this background, Macron’s position is understandable.
One of the problems during this conflict has been that Nato has been far too clear about what it will not do, instead of what it will do. This has arisen largely out of openly-expressed fears about what the Russian response would be were the West be seen to escalate too far. Macron is right to try to seize back the strategic initiative from the Russians, as part of his theory of “strategic ambivalence”, even if some will quibble with the precise course of action he has intimated.
As eye-catching as his rhetoric may be, however, there is always the danger that it could backfire, in the same way the German airforce leak was a serious gaffe. The mere suggestion of Western troops already being in Ukraine or the possibility that they could be deployed there either for training or combat purposes risks playing into Vladimir Putin’s agenda.
The Russian ruler’s domestic propaganda asserts that this war is promulgated by Nato, forcing the defence of Mother Russia from Western aggression. In turn, this enables Putin to make nuclear threats that frighten Europeans who are opposed to further intervention.
What is certain, regardless, is we must urgently ramp up military support to Ukraine in terms of increased supplies of intelligence, weapons, ammunition and training. There is no time to be lost. The security of Europe, not just Ukraine, is at stake – even Nato itself.
Macron: West may need to save Ukraine if Russia makes breakthrough
Emmanuel Macron held a meeting with party leaders at the Elysée Palace
Emmanuel Macron warned that the West may have to step in to save Ukraine if Russia makes a breakthrough on the Eastern front, according to reports on Thursday.
The French president produced maps to show opposition leaders, invited to the Elysee Palace, points of potential Russian breakthrough towards Odesa or Kyiv.
He told them there should be “no more red lines” on his country’s involvement in the conflict.
“These are maps of the Ukrainian front line freely available anywhere,” the Elysee told The Telegraph.
Speaking after the two and a half-hour meeting, the party chiefs said the talks with Mr Macron had left them concerned, with some accusing him of seeking to exploit the conflict for domestic gain ahead of key European elections in June.
It came as Lord Cameron said Europe must rein in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza before the next US president is sworn in. Speaking at a Berlin press conference alongside Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign secretary, he said the crises needed to be in the “best possible place” by the time of the presidential election.
Lord Cameron has previously raised concerns about the commitment of Donald Trump and his Republican allies to the fight against Vladimir Putin.
Mr Macron caused disquiet among many in Europe by refusing to rule out sending Western ground troops to Ukraine, pointing to Russia’s hardening stance. He then urged Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowards” in supporting the country’s fight against the Russian invasion.
On Thursday, some party leaders said Mr Macron advocated a “no limits” approach to counter the Russian president as part of his theory of “strategic ambivalence” – keeping Moscow guessing.
Jordan Bardella, the president of the hard-Right National Rally (RN) party, said he had urged Mr Macron “not to go to war with Russia” and said threatening to send French soldiers “to fight a nuclear power like Russia is irresponsible and extremely dangerous for world peace”.
Fabien Roussel, the Communist Party leader, said he feared Mr Macron was “ready to engage in a bellicose escalation, which would be very dangerous”.
Marine Tondelier, the leader of the Green Party, recounted Mr Macron saying that Putin “obviously has no limits”. She said it was “extremely worrying” to see the president tell the meeting that “we must show we have no limits” too.
Manuel Bompard, of the hard-Left France Unbowed party, added: “I arrived worried, and I left even more worried.”
The Macron camp has made it clear that one aim of meeting the opposition was to “clarify” their position on Ukraine, notably that of the RN, which long admired the Putin administration before the war.
On Wednesday, Prisca Thevenot, a government spokesman, said that it was “quite obvious” that the RN was not aligned with Mr Macron’s call to do everything to ensure Russia’s defeat.
Gabriel Attal, the French prime minister, has accused the RN of “supporting Russia more than Ukraine”, even questioning whether “Vladimir Putin’s troops are not already in our country in the guise of Marine Le Pen’s party.
The RN is the largest opposition party in France’s lower house of parliament and leads the Macron alliance by a wide margin in European election polls ahead of the June 9 vote.
Reacting to the reports, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said on Thursday that Mr Macron “continues to raise the level of France’s direct involvement” in the war.
France’s parliament will have a chance to vote on the country’s Ukraine strategy, including a bilateral security treaty signed with Kyiv last month. Debates and non-binding votes will take place next Tuesday in the National Assembly lower house and in the Senate upper house on Wednesday.
Later on Thursday, France was set to host a video conference of almost 30 countries including Ukraine, which would follow up on the initiatives discussed at an international summit hosted by Mr Macron last week.
On Thursday, Mr Macron spoke to his predecessors François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysee Palace.
Afterwards, Mr Hollande called for more aid for Ukraine as well as European unity, saying: “The only possible response is to show that we are with the Ukrainians in total solidarity, that we are giving them all the support they need, without taking part in any combat ourselves.”
Asked about the possibility of sending troops, the socialist former president said: “My position on military issues is: the less we say, the better.”
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