Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban questioned whether Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which had led to hundreds of thousands of casualties, should be called a “war.”

“This is a military operation,” Orban told reporters at an annual news conference in Budapest Thursday, using Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terminology. “There was no declaration of war between the two countries. When Russia declares war then there will be war.”

Orban has riled Hungary’s European Union and NATO allies by maintaining close relations with Russia and trying to undermine support for Ukraine, including by calling for economic sanctions against Moscow to be scrapped. Last week, Orban blocked the EU’s €50 billion ($54.8 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine, the only one of 27 EU government leaders to do so.

Read more: Orban Sees EU States Circumventing Hungary on Ukraine Aid

Orban met Putin in October in Beijing, the first EU leader to do so since an international arrest warrant was issued against the Russian president for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

At that meeting with Putin, he called Russia’s invasion “a military operation,” though he told reporters in Budapest on Thursday that he’s also willing to use the word “war,” including with the Russian president the next time they meet.

“We should be happy there’s no declaration of war because then there will be a general mobilization,” in Russia, Orban said. “I don’t wish that on anybody.”

Hungary's PM Orban criticises Ukraine's move to stop ex-president at border

Ukraine's decision to prevent former president Petro Poroshenko from leaving the country earlier this month to meet Hungary's prime minister raises questions over Kyiv's European Union ambitions, Viktor Orban told a briefing on Thursday.

Ukraine's security service said on Dec. 2 that it had prevented Poroshenko from leaving Ukraine on grounds that Russia planned to exploit a planned meeting with Orban to hurt Ukrainian interests.

Poroshenko's political party, European Solidarity, said the former president had scheduled only meetings in Poland and the United States and warned the SBU security service against becoming involved in politics. Orban's office did not comment at the time.

On Thursday, when asked about the Ukrainian decision directly, Orban said the fact that the Ukrainians introduced special rules in wartime was "acceptable."

"But a question arises, if a meeting between a Ukrainian citizen and a Hungarian prime minister carries a national security risk, then how do they want to become members of the EU? But let's leave that for later."

The SBU said Poroshenko had planned to meet Orban, who maintains ties with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin.

When asked about his latest talks with Putin in Beijing in October, Orban said:

"I found it natural that once we are in Beijing we should meet," Orban said, adding that he would have initiated the meeting himself, had the Russians not offered it.

Orban has been at odds with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on some issues related to Ukraine's EU membership bid.

All 27 EU states except Hungary agreed last week to start accession talks with Ukraine despite its invasion by Russia, bypassing Orban's objections by getting him to leave the room when leaders made the decision.

Poroshenko was president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019.

Orban acknowledges EU can provide aid to Ukraine without Hungary’s involvement.

Viktor Orban.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has acknowledged that European Union member states have the autonomy to provide assistance to Ukraine independently, bypassing the need for consensus within the EU budget framework, Reuters reported on Dec. 21.

“They want to give the money to Ukraine from inside the EU budget, Hungary wants to give it outside the EU budget. They have the possibility – if we don’t agree on this – to resolve this outside the budget but don’t have the option of resolving this from the EU budget without Hungarian approval.”

Orban added that “they will think about what to say” if EU member states agree to provide aid to Ukraine outside the budget.

During an EU summit on Dec. 14 where 26 bloc members approved the start of negotiations with Ukraine regarding EU accession, Orban vetoed a new EUR 50-billion aid package for Ukraine. He insists that Budapest should receive around EUR 21 billion in EU aid and grants for Hungary that has been frozen due to the poor situation with human rights and the rule of law in the country.

Charles Michel, the head of the European Council, announced on Dec. 18 that the European Union plans to hold an extraordinary summit on Feb. 1, during which issues related to additional funding for Ukraine are planned to be discussed.

'Evil is eating away at Western democracies,' says Hungarian PM Orban

Viktor Orban has claimed that "evil is gnawing at Western democracies" during his annual press conference in Budapest.

The Hungarian Prime Minister was speaking following Colorado’s decision to declare Donald Trump ineligible for the US presidency, alongside moves by Poland’s leader to take a state TV channel off the air.

"We see strange things today, let's say in the democratic Western world," Orban said.

"We have to be attentive because there is a large Western democracy where, if I understand correctly, they want to block a presidential candidate by placing legal obstacles in his path," Hungary's PM said, referring to his ally Trump.

The Colorado Supreme Court on Tuesday declared the former US president ineligible for office because of his actions during the Capitol insurrection, sending shockwaves through American politics.

"I see another country, just as important, where a party with significant parliamentary representation is placed under surveillance," continued Orban, visibly alluding to the German far-right AfD party.

"I see a third country where the takeover of television was done by police force,” he also claimed.

This comment was about Poland, where the new pro-European Union government has begun to wrestle control of the country’s state media from the previous Conservative rulers.

"An evil is eating away at the organisation of Western democracies," the Hungarian Prime Minister said.

He added: "If all this happened in Hungary, perhaps NATO troops would have already intervened, which also raises the problem of double standards."

Orban has faced regular criticism from Brussels and international organisations for his authoritarian drift. The Commission has also frozen €21 billion of funds intended for Hungary due to the worsening rule of law situation.

Several independent Hungarian members of the media were excluded from Orban’s press conference.

In September 2022, the European Parliament estimated that this Central European country was no longer a true democracy, but a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy", while the counter-powers were gradually brought into line.

Orban Sees EU States Circumventing Hungary on Ukraine Aid

The European Union can bypass Hungary’s opposition to joint aid for Ukraine by striking a separate deal among the 26 other member states at a summit early next year, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Thursday.

The bloc has been looking for ways to get around Hungary’s intransigence after talks over a €50 billion ($55 billion) package for the government in Kyiv broke down at a summit last week.

A potential back-up option that has been floated is having member states funnel money to Kyiv outside of the EU budget process, an option Orban signaled may be viable.

“It’s not a question that Hungary’s will can be circumvented in many areas,” the premier told reporters in Budapest. “The others have that opportunity in this area as well.”

With political infighting in Washington also holding back key aid from the US, at stake is President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s ability to marshal continued support for Ukraine amid a second full winter of combat since Russia invaded in early 2022.

Any assistance for Ukraine should be awarded for a shorter duration than the current proposal, Orban said, adding that the matter should be considered separately from disputes over the EU’s funding for Hungary.

Why Funding Freeze Didn’t Fix EU’s Orban Problem: QuickTake

West is thinking of scenarios where Putin wins in Ukraine

The Western opinion on the war in Ukraine has been moving towards thinking that Russia could win the war, and Ukraine could lose additional territories and even its sovereignty, in which case NATO would be defeated, and the consequences would be felt around the world. Such opinions are expressed in articles by the Financial Times and Bloomberg.

Details: The Financial Times wrote that the West is toying with the idea of letting Vladimir Putin have Ukraine. And two days earlier, Bloomberg wrote that the stalemate with aid from the US and Europe was causing Ukraine's allies to worry that Putin might win.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has calculated that promised Western aid to Ukraine has fallen by almost 90% since 2022, even before the US and EU failed to approve additional funds this month.

Voters, incited by the pro-Putin far-right, are fed up with the war in Ukraine. The West, after an 18-month hiatus, is resuming its 15-year appeasement of Putin's aggression.

According to the FT, the "if Russia wins" scenario is becoming more and more plausible. And it could look like this:

1. Russia exacts terrible victor’s justice on Ukrainians. This isn’t speculation. It’s precisely what the Russians have already done in Ukraine: mass executions, castrations, rapes, torture and abductions of children. Guerrilla attacks by Ukrainian partisans would trigger more Russian reprisals. Millions more Ukrainians would flee west, this time permanently. Remember that the arrival of 1.3mn refugees in 2015 turbocharged Europe’s far right.

2. A free state might survive in western Ukraine, writes former UK diplomat Peter Ricketts. It might even join the EU. But it could expect repeated Russian attacks, no matter what "treaties" were signed. A rolling Russian advance would take territory when it could.

3. Putin would control close to a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. He has already been upgrading from gas as a weapon to food as a weapon.

4. Putin’s success would encourage countries interested in invading a neighbour: China, Venezuela, Azerbaijan and, indeed, Russia. The likely creation of a Ukrainian army in exile running sorties from European countries would further incentivise Russian attacks on those places.

5. A discredited NATO would face its biggest test. Putin seeks to prove they won’t hold. If he attacked the Baltics, NATO would probably send troops. Once a few hundred western soldiers came back dead, far-right parties would demand "peace". Western countries could retreat, saying nobody would want to escalate to nuclear war.

Americans and Western Europeans feel secure, and some Eastern European countries have begun to spend huge amounts of money on defence and armaments.

Quote from the Financial Times: "Ditching Ukraine would be a choice. There is an alternative. Russia has a low-tech economy about the size of Canada’s. The Europeans could help Ukraine withstand Putin even if Trump pulled out. We’d have to build up our arms industries fast, but the effort required of us would be tiny compared with Russia’s.

We’d also need to replace American aid to Ukraine — €71.4 billion in the war’s first 21 months, according to the Kiel Institute, or €40.8 billion on an annualised basis. That’s €70 a year per European citizen of Nato. We could find that if we wanted."

Quote from Bloomberg: "With more than $110 billion in assistance mired in political disputes in Washington and Brussels, how long Kyiv will be able to hold back Russian forces and defend Ukraine’s cities, power plants and ports against missile attacks is increasingly in question.

Beyond the potentially catastrophic consequences for Ukraine, some European allies have begun to quietly consider the impact of a failure for North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II."

Details: Bloomberg stated, citing people familiar with the internal conversations who requested anonymity, Europe is overestimating the risks that an arrogant Russia could pose to NATO members in the east.

The ripple effects, as these people said, would be felt around the world as US partners and allies question the credibility of Washington's defence promises.

If Ukraine falls, Russia's threat to Eastern Europe will increase, as before the invasion, Ukraine served as a buffer between Russia and non-Baltic NATO members.

Quote from Bloomberg: "If Russia fully occupied Ukraine, it could establish new military bases in the west of the country and move sizeable forces there. To counter a potential threat against eastern Europe, NATO would have to improve its defensive measures at an enormous financial cost. Even so, it might be unable to defend against a Russian attack."

More details: In addition to doubts in the West about Ukraine's ability to liberate all of the occupied territory, there seem to be doubts about the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to hold the territories under their control.

Kristine Berzina, managing director at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, said: "There is increasing concern about lack of movement on aid for Ukraine on both sides of the Atlantic and frustration that there is this stagnation with dire battlefield consequences. The possibility of Ukraine losing additional territory and even its sovereignty — that is still on the table."

According to European officials, Russia is likely to try to seize more territory and destroy more infrastructure if Ukraine does not get the weapons it needs to defend itself.

If Ukraine is unable to defend itself, they said, it may be forced to accept a ceasefire on Russian terms.

The situation on the front makes it increasingly clear that the fight could last for years and that even the availability of aid may not produce a significant breakthrough.

Analysts also suggest that the United States will have to choose between maintaining sufficient forces in Asia to defend Taiwan from a potential Chinese attack and deterring a Russian attack on NATO. The cost of deploying forces will continue as long as the Russian threat persists – potentially indefinitely.

And this does not take into account the prospect that Donald Trump could win the 2024 presidential election and fulfil his promises to withdraw from major alliances, including NATO, and to strike a deal with Putin over Ukraine.