Ukraine's rapid accession to NATO will convince Russian President Vladimir Putin that the war in Ukraine has been pointless.

Source:  Kurt Volker, Former US Special Representative for Ukraine and Former US Ambassador to NATO, during a conference at the European Parliament

Quote: "I am convinced that today's NATO policy inadvertently signals Putin to continue hostilities. We say Ukraine will become a member in the long term, but we cannot bring it into NATO while this war continues.

This encourages Putin to continue the war. I think the time has come for us to send the exact opposite message that Ukraine will become a NATO member as soon as possible.

This will mean that there is no way for Ukraine to lose. Thus, the continuation of this war will be pointless for Putin and destructive for Russia."

Details: Volker noted that it was his personal point of view, not the US government's position.

He emphasised that the practical implementation of such an intention is not as complex as believed. Undoubtedly, concerns exist that Ukraine's membership could lead to escalation, the risk of nuclear weapons, or a direct confrontation between NATO and Russian forces. Those concerns should be considered, but, as Volker said, they can be addressed.

"We may speak about, in particular in the NATO-Ukraine Council format, what Article 5 will mean for Ukraine and what steps the Alliance will take to protect Ukraine following this article. Article 5 does not contain a specific commitment to deploy troops. It speaks of a collective response. We have such a collective response even now because NATO already provides Ukraine with training, equipment, and intelligence," Volker explained.

At the same time, he pointed out that NATO can provide more to help Ukraine. In particular, this concerns the mine clearance capabilities provision, including sea mine clearance, which will open routes in the Black Sea.

NATO may launch missions to ensure freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, which will negate Russia's claims of the right to attack civilian vessels of third countries in international waters. Such Russian actions are directly equivalent to piracy.

"NATO can also directly get involved in Ukraine's air defence. Providing the appropriate equipment is a good start, and things are better now.

But I think the Alliance can do more by directly helping Ukraine with air defence.

Ukraine borders NATO countries to the west, which allows the use of capabilities for air defence of large settlements or civil infrastructure facilities," the former US Ambassador to the Alliance noted.

Background: In the summer, former US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker criticised US President Joe Biden's stance on Ukraine's membership in NATO.

NATO hesitates over rapid NATO membership for Ukraine due to US and Germany's positions.

Disagreements remain among the NATO allies concerning Ukraine’s rapid accession to the Alliance due to the stance taken by the US and Germany, which are insisting that the process should be determined by the conditions rather than political considerations.

Source: Citing two NATO diplomats, as reported by European Pravda

Details: NATO members have still not reached agreement on whether the reforms set out in the updated Annual National Programme are the conditions under which Ukraine may join NATO, or whether they are a tool to bring Kyiv closer to the Alliance, several NATO diplomats have stated.

According to one of the diplomats, this means that when the conditions are met with regard to implementation of the reforms that NATO is to agree on with Ukraine, it will be possible to discuss Ukraine’s membership.

Other sources stated that the reform programme does not contain a list of conditions, but is a "pointer" or "tool" for tracking progress and keeping NATO leaders informed.

Meanwhile, the description of the reform sectors generally leaves room for manoeuvre by NATO member states, since they are not bound to a strict assessment of progress but are more likely to express their political opinions.

Euractiv remarks that with fewer details to check, there is also a risk that the reforms will never be enough, and that will make it harder to give the green light for accession.

"At the end of the day, it remains a political decision," a third NATO diplomat said, citing, for example, delays with Turkey and Hungary ratifying Sweden’s membership bid due to national interests.

Another NATO diplomat said that even if the war with Russia ended tomorrow and Ukraine met all the conditions listed in the reform plan, NATO members would still have to give their consent to invite Ukraine, which may be a difficult process.

On Wednesday, 29 November, NATO and Ukraine are expected to sign a list of the reforms that Kyiv has to implement for its future NATO accession.

Euractiv says this step should push Kyiv to reform its armed forces and other security sectors, and to provide a checklist that NATO members will be able to track. The document will not be made public.

The four NATO diplomats said the process of implementing the annual programme of conditions is less stringent than the NATO Membership Action Plan that candidates had to adhere to in the past.

Compared to previous reform plans, Ukraine’s annual plan is a lot shorter and less detailed – 10 pages rather than 300, listing areas of priorities rather than a checklist, which made it very difficult for Ukraine to demonstrate its successes, one person familiar with the discussions said.

So it will be easier for Ukraine to demonstrate its achievements before NATO’s Washington summit next summer.

The many reforms include guaranteeing civil control of the armed forces, drafting a national defence and security strategy, working on the interoperability of the armed forces with those of NATO members, and anti-corruption reforms (changes to the judiciary, asset declaration for politically exposed persons).

According to Euractiv, the protection of national minorities is also included in the reform plan alongside human rights and democracy considerations. Budapest regularly raises this as a prerequisite for building any closer link between NATO, the European Union and Kyiv.

Background:

• Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reported that Ukraine's allies in the North Atlantic Alliance are to agree on recommendations for the reforms that Ukraine needs to implement to become ready for NATO membership.

• Prior to that, an updated reform plan for Ukraine’s future accession to NATO was discussed at the Ukraine-NATO Council in October.

• US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated after October’s Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting that several "capability coalitions" for Kyiv would be created, particularly for training the Ukrainian Air Force.