The world must start preparing for peacemaking in the Middle East. A revived and viable process of negotiation requires change on both sides
The horrific scenes on October 7, when Hamas attacked towns in Israel, and the terrible sight of devastated neighbourhoods in Gaza are a far cry from that sunny day in September 1993 when Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO leader Yasser Arafat shook hands on the South Lawn of the White House. Overseen by a beaming Bill Clinton, this was a historic moment of peacemaking. Sadly, Rabin and Arafat are no longer with us and both Israelis and Palestinians are so much the worse off for it.
The unprecedented level of death and destruction that has marked this latest episode of the conflict makes the task of peacemaking critically urgent and a humanitarian imperative. For no matter what happens once hostilities cease, there must never be a return to the status quo ante that precipitated this tragedy. While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has ebbed and flowed since the signing of the Oslo Accords, its recent violent eruption has its roots in the failure by both parties to will the peace they had signed up for. On the Palestinian side, the performance of the Palestinian Authority in establishing the essential foundations for what was intended to become a modern, democratic state fell far short of what was hoped for.
Meanwhile, an increasingly repressive Israeli occupation in the West Bank fed the build-up of deep frustrations on the Palestinian side and removed any remaining faith in faltering negotiations. In Gaza, a stifling, 17-year blockade only deepened the impoverishment and misery of its 2.3mn inhabitants and created the conditions for the rise of a militant Hamas. Israel, being by far the more powerful of the two antagonists, and the state occupying and dominating the lives of another people, must bear the larger share of responsibility for the demise of the “peace process”. Since the assassination of Rabin at the hands of an Israeli extremist in 1995, politics in Israel have shifted relentlessly rightward, culminating in the formation of the most extreme coalition government in the country’s history following the last round of elections. The new coalition rejects the two-state solution and has unabashedly encouraged settler violence in the occupied West Bank with a view to ultimately annexing the area.
But notwithstanding the abysmal conditions that currently prevail, the world must turn to preparing for peace once the guns fall silent. Indeed, international pressure is already building for finally addressing the root causes of the conflict and bringing about a peaceful resolution. US president Joe Biden, among others, has again invoked a two-state solution as a possible outcome, which, if not ideal, remains the least bad option. Still, before anyone jumps to premature conclusions, all stakeholders in the conflict, above all Israel and the Palestinians, have an enormous amount of work to do. On the Israeli side, Netanyahu and his allies on the right cannot make peace. Therefore, through its own traditions and political processes, Israel will need to come up with a government that believes in the two-state solution and is willing to make compromises to attain this outcome. On the Palestinian side, the political ground has to be cleared of any party that does not accept mutual recognition and a two-state solution. Israel’s announced war aim of eliminating Hamas is ambiguous and, in the end, may not be achievable. Israel alone cannot eliminate Hamas.
Hamas can be neutralised as a military threat, and likely diminished as a political force, only by a vote of the Palestinian people. But such a vote will need to take place when Palestinians see credible prospects for a better life of freedom, dignity and economic wellbeing. Following the cessation of hostilities, a transformation of the current governance structure in both the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip will be essential.
This will require fundamental political reforms to create a democratically elected, representative Palestine government that will then participate in revived, internationally supervised and this time credible negotiations, governed by a firm commitment to achieving peace within an agreed timeframe. The implementation of such a scheme will require the full and robust commitment of the members of the UN Security Council, especially the US, as well as that of partners in the region — for both financing the massive reconstruction in Gaza and for the transitional security arrangements that will need to be put in place. Without this, an escape from the escalating violence and a return to peacemaking will be impossible.
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