Opinion- Iran is taking aim at the West, and we have too few ships to stop it

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Some 12 per cent of global trade passes through the Red Sea. If that is cut off, or even hindered, then we have a major economic crisis on our hands. When a ship blocked the Suez Canal in 2021, we saw how severely these crises can hit the global markets. While cost estimates vary wildly, one suggested that it held up as much as $10 billion of cargo every day.

The Houthis' military spokesman, Yahya Saree

The Houthis' military spokesman, Yahya Saree.

Today we face a more serious threat. Current events in the Red Sea are not an accident, nor the work of rag-tag pirates. We are defending trade against a well-funded and highly equipped militia group – the Houthis – which is firing pot-shots and has boarded ships transiting the area.

The effect on trade has already been significant, with several liquified natural gas and container companies either changing route or waiting nearby. The geopolitical consequences, given that this group is believed to be funded by Iran, could be enormous.

The West must therefore be prepared for the worst and ready to stand up for the international trading network. This has always been a task of the Royal Navy worldwide and should be reflected in our maritime strategy. If we don’t take firm enough action then Iran may be tempted to threaten the Strait of Hormuz.

While it is welcome news that the US has launched an expanded maritime protection network in the Red Sea with Operation Prosperity Guardian, this should highlight the need to properly fund our naval forces in an increasingly volatile world. Sadly, our contribution to such essential operations will already have been hindered by cuts. Indeed, there was a time when British ships escorted trade through challenging waters. But do we have the capacity to take the lead today?

For now, Operation Prosperity Guardian has to be robust. If ships are further targeted by Houthi weapons, there would be a clear self-defence case for hitting back. We should strike at the obvious target: not just their boats, but the missile or drone pads from which the strikes are launched.

This would be the only way to show that we’re serious about stopping the Houthis. It would also send a message to Iran: that we are not afraid of striking its proxies when they get in our way. The Iranian regime may believe it can trigger global instability with impunity by seemingly arming and training militant groups – we must prove that is far from the case.

At home, we need to strengthen our maritime and trade resilience. Our population doesn’t seem to realise just how much of the world’s merchant shipping is run from London. Just-in-time supply chains are at risk of falling apart as soon as there is disruption anywhere, so we ought to develop storage facilities and variable supply routes.

It cannot be right that our economy is ruined, and Christmas is spoiled for families in English towns, over a militia causing trouble in faraway lands. Investment in resilience now would reduce the costs over the long-term. We should also take more notice of failed or conflict-ridden states. The Red Sea is now surrounded by them: Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. Instability in these countries fuels the rise of militant groups, which then target the West as their enemy.

Finally, we need to defend the current British fleet, including aircraft carriers, from ignorant criticism. We clearly have too few ships to do what the nation expects of us. Britain is, first and foremost, a maritime nation. Our ability to protect trade routes has always been paramount. We should be proud and keep it that way.

How are the Red Sea attacks impacting shipping in the Suez Canal?

U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney transits the Suez Canal.

Attacks launched by Yemen's Houthi group on commercial ships at the southern end of the Red Sea have prompted several shipping companies to divert vessels, avoiding a route that would take them through Egypt's Suez Canal in the north and its link to the Mediterranean Sea.

The Iran-aligned group says the aim of the attacks is to support the Palestinians as Israel and Hamas wage war.

The re-routing adds cost and time to vessel journeys. Oil prices and war risk insurance premiums have spiked as a result.

WHAT IS THE SUEZ CANAL?

* The 192-km (120-mile) Suez Canal is the quickest sea route between Asia and Europe.

* The canal is one of seven geographic choke points that are critically important to the world oil trade and are also susceptible to blockages or pirate attacks.

* About 9.2 million barrels per day of oil flowed through the canal in the first half of 2023, representing about 9% of global demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, quoting Vortexa data.

* Around 4% of global LNG imports estimated at 391 million metric tons in 2023 so far passed through the canal, consultancy Energy Aspects said.

* Revenue from tolls paid by shipowners is an important source of income to the Egyptian economy, and hit a record $9.4 billion in the year to June 30.

* The canal can accommodate over 60% of the total world fleet of tankers when fully loaded, and over 90% of bulk carriers. It can also accommodate all container carriers, car carriers and general cargo ships.

* A ship carrying Saudi crude from the Mideast Gulf can make it to Rotterdam, for example, in 6,436 nautical miles if it traverses the canal. Going around Africa increases the journey to 11,169 nautical miles, adding time and cost to a shipowner.

WHAT'S THE IMPACT ON CANAL NAVIGATION SO FAR?

* On Dec. 17, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) said that since Nov. 19, 55 ships have rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, while 2,128 have passed through the canal in the same period.

* Two major freight firms including MSC, the world's biggest container shipping line, said on Saturday they would avoid the Suez Canal as Houthi militants stepped up their assaults.

* SCA Chairman Osama Rabie said that on Dec. 17, 77 ships passed through the canal, including some ships belonging to shipping lines that had announced temporary diversions. Those were vessels that were already in the Red Sea region before the announcements were made.

* On Dec. 18 oil major BP also temporarily paused all transits through the Red Sea.

A BRIEF HISTORY

* The first canal was dug under the reign of Senausret III, Pharaoh of Egypt (1887-1849 BCE) linking the Mediterranean and Red Seas via the river Nile and its branches.

* Connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Gulf of Suez and the Red Sea, a new artificial waterway was planned by French engineer Ferdinand de Lesseps. It took 10 years to complete and opened in November 1869.

* The canal separates the African continent from Asia, and provides the shortest maritime route between Europe and the lands lying around the Indian and western Pacific oceans. It is one of the world's most heavily used shipping lanes.

* Egypt nationalised the canal in 1956, prompting shareholders Britain and France, along with Israel, to invade. The "Suez Crisis" only ended after Egypt sank 40 ships in the canal and the United States, Soviet Union and United Nations intervened, forcing Britain, France and Israel to withdraw.

* In June 1967, Egypt and some other Arab states fought Israel in what became known as the Six-Day War, with Israeli troops advancing to the east bank of the Suez Canal before a ceasefire was agreed. The canal was very badly damaged in fighting and, with opposing forces encamped on either side, remained closed until after the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

* Egypt regained full control of the canal following the Yom Kippur war and it was reopened in June 1975.

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